NewMarket (代号: NEU) Logo上的鲸鱼标志着1962年的收购,当时一报纸登出了"约拿吞吃了鲸鱼"的标题.今天,分析师对公司可能再次进行大型收购感到惊讶万分.一位分析师指出,这将是"约拿吞吃了鲸鱼的第二章."
但是分析师表示这家石油添加剂制造厂商在竞争对手Infineum面前一副事不关己的样子,后者正在进行战略审核. Robotti & Co..调研公司持有New-Market股票的分析师Robert Robotti表示"我认为他们现在已是高高在上,根本不需要做任何事.如果他们想,那么事情只能按照他们的想法来进行."
总部在佛吉尼亚Richmond的New-Market连续十个季度营收和每股收益获得稳定增长.分析师预计2008年一季度每股收益增长25%至1.01美圆,预计营收增长8% ,至3,344亿美圆.
四个强手一出戏
享誉数十年的Ethyl Corp.,是石油添加剂行业四巨头中最小的企业. Lubrizol (代号: LZ)为龙头老大.然后是Chevron (代号: CLC)的Oronite,以及Infineum. Infineum是美孚(代号: XOM)和壳牌(代号: RDSA)的合资企业.
美孚和壳牌在3月10日宣布他们正与数位潜在买家商讨Infineum一事,作为战略审查的一部分.之前,关于这家合资企业未来的猜测已是喧嚣直上.
Gabelli & Co..的分析师Robert Felice表示他不是"非常相信" NewMarket会收购Infineum.但是他猜测,如果合并成行,公司将获益匪浅. "如果NewMarket成功了,那么自然的,你就会想到协同效应, "Felice表示," NewMarket这对的股东而言是非常增值的长期效果. "
NewMarket的首席财政官David Fiorenza拒绝在本月初评论Infineum.之前首席执行官Gottwald已经对这家总部在英国的竞争对手表现出了相当的兴趣.
"如果Infineum真被出售,那我们不介意先看一下," Gottwald在四季度分析师会议上表示.2月1日,同样有报导称Infineum被一些私募基金所看中.
1962年,这家总部在的Richmond Albemarle Paper Manufacturing Co..通过杠杆融资收购了Ethyl Corp.之后,就采用了Ethyl这个名字.在2004年由于重组的关系更名为NewMarket.
NewMarket的主要营收来源是Afton Chemical,预计提供了99%的营收. Afton制造用于润滑剂和燃料的石油添加剂.这些添加剂,由洗涤剂到辛烷促进剂,均是日常生活的一部分.然而,这些并并不是大部分消费者所知道了解的.
首席执行官表示Fiorenza, "我们想要说明的是,机械硬体已变得越来越精密,仅仅原油,精炼油已无法满足保护这些机械的要求了.所以,我们做的就是将化学成分加入原油中,这将不再令你每75公里换油,或每50000公里改变你的自动变速箱油了. "NewMarket的主要客户是石油公司. Fiorenza称,全球前五大或六大石油公司占到公司原油添加剂销售的半数. "
公司动力
分析师表示, NewMarket的长处包括了经验丰富,以股东为重点的管理层.首席执行官Gottwald已经在公司工作多年了20.他从父亲Bruce Gottwald那里接任CEO的职位. Gottwald家族拥有这家添加剂公司20%的股份.
公司多元化营收流是另一动力来源.公司大约60%的销售来源于美国以外市场.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
CECE CEO bought 400,000 shares
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3...
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3...
expansion to China
http://www.fkinc-sh.com/index.htm
Annual Report 2007 Form 10-K - 03/17/2008
农作物飞涨的价格令农民乐不可支。随着钱袋渐鼓,农民们也可以阔气一把了。
这也是农业化学板块正牛气冲天的原因之一,也解释了Lindsay Corp(代号:LNN)的灌溉设备热卖的原因了。 Lindsay生产能提高水利用率的“中心枢纽”灌溉系统。除了能节省水和劳动力外,他们还能提高农作物收成。
农产品价格今年已达到历史价位,或是接近历史价位。比如,小麦在二月底的出售价格已达到13.50美元。伴随着对冲基金在上周杀跌平仓后,价格有所回落,小麦,玉米,大豆期货价格在周一又开始反弹。 Lindsay的股价单日大涨8%。
令农产品价格飙升的理由如,全球人口增长以及生活水准提升,存货减少,像乙醇之类的生物燃料需求旺盛。
Rodman & Renshaw的分析师Joe Giamichael因为现在的环境而非常看好Lindsay,“排除农业化学企业,很难再能够找出一家公司具备如此多的优越条件。”
截至2月20日的二季度中,Lindsay表示小麦价格相比一年前增长了130%,大豆价格翻了一番还多。玉米上涨1/3。 Lindsay该季度每股收益实现了增长276%,79美分/股的大跃进。美国农业部预计2008年农场净现金收入将继去年之后再次打破纪录。 Lindsay在该季度结束时有价值9850万美元的未卸订单,一年之前为3850万美元。
Lindsay(以内布拉斯加州的一个镇子命名)是低压枢轴系统的先驱者,他们生产的设备只消耗传统灌溉系统的一半水量。由于淡水供应减少,这变得尤其关键。
“节约淡水是全球热点问题,” Lindsay的首席财务官David Downing表示,“农业占去了全球淡水耗量的70%,所以寻找到更节约的用水方法非常重要。”尽管Lindsay的塔式洒水器,俗称“登山者”,在过去几年来为美国众多的农民所使用,但是Lindsay仍旧非常注重科技创新。它提供了诸多新的控制选择,包括电子远端控制器。
Lindsey的主要竞争对手Valmont Industries(代号:VMI)占全球枢轴系统灌溉市场的43%,Lindsay为30%。 Valmont是家大型企业,具有更多的产品,包括工程支援结构和涂料。它在国际市场上的年龄远大于Lindsay。
一直到2000年,Lindsay关注于国内市场,而到了新任首席执行官Richard Parod才开始向海外扩张。如今Lindsay的海外业务发展远比国内更为迅猛。上季度全球灌溉营收同比增长113%,至2900万美元。国内灌溉营收增长44%,至5350万美元。
来自澳大利亚的订单增长迅速,由于居住在常年干旱的墨累河盆地的农民迁移到了更湿润的地方去了。由于他们的迁移,导致买入了更多新型,高效的灌溉系统。政府的刺激政策也有助于增加销售。
中国是重要的营收增长点。公司将东欧,中东,非洲,美国中南部视为发展机遇。在Lindsay上季度1.084亿美元(相比去年同期增长70%)的总营收值中,基础设备增长2580万美元,去年同期为1270万美元。 Thomson Financial的分析师预计Lindsay截至八月的本财政年度收益增长144%。盈利明年增长27%。
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
农作物营养素
Potash(代号:POT)股价过去一年翻了三倍,竞争对手Mosaic(代号:MOS)同样涨了三倍,全应归功于农作物营养素的飞涨,如钾,磷,氮, 而这一切的幕后黑手则是全球玉米,小麦,大豆几乎涨疯的事实。随着全球食物,原料和生物燃料如乙醇需求激增,农产品利润颇丰。
中国和印度中产阶级对粮食的迫切需求预计令Potash和Mosaic收益分别达2倍和3倍。但是全球经济不确定性,却笼罩着这些市场宠儿。
Barron's Online称,这将导致投机者疯狂介入Potash和Mosaic,以及其他农产品类。 2007年底开始,两家公司的交易量至少增长两倍。两只股票面值相比3-4倍的历史平均水准已远远超出,至少达8倍。
US Global Investors的首席执行官Frank Holmes称,最近已减持Potash和Mosaic。他采用基本面分析股票,计量法平仓。
花旗(代号:C)分析师Brian Yu却坚持做多,但称,最大的不确定性并非是美国经济衰退会否冲击整个行业,而是“如果经济衰退会否蔓延至全球”。
尽管看多Potash和Mosaic,摩根大通(代号:JPM)分析师David Silver称投机操作“可能在4月底或者5月初至巅峰,和春季种植季度相吻合。”
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Saturday, March 8, 2008
No Respect for Skirting the PE Craze
March 7, 2008, 7:37 am“Put all your eggs in one basket–and watch that basket!”
A few advisory firms–Lazard, Evercore, Greenhill and Blackstone Group–emerged from the dark M&A downturn of 2000 to 2003 heeding that age-old advice from Andrew Carnegie. Still, even these guys said they were preparing for a day when M&A would fall and were building more baskets and expanding more-stable businesses like restructuring, asset management and private equity. Well, with M&A activity having dried up since the credit crunch hit in June, how’s that going?
The boutiques actually aren’t doing badly in the M&A business, mostly because they aren’t at the mercy of private-equity-firm deals. While large banks such as Goldman Sachs Group, J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank built large efforts focused on advising and financing private-equity firms, many boutiques stuck with old-fashioned “strategic buyers,” the Wall Street term for companies. And given the relatively small size of these businesses, it doesn’t take a lot of assignments to keep their head above water.
Greenhill, for instance, has four big mandates expected to close this quarter, including an $11.4 billion assignment for U.K. water company Kelda; a $4.6 billion deal for Nikko Cordial on its proposed share exchange with Citigroup; a $3.4 billion deal for Ventana by Roche Holdings; and a $3.4 billion deal for American Financial Realty Trust by Gramercy Capital. Wachovia analysts predict Greenhill may win roles on another $12 billion to $15 billion of deals this quarter, including the firm’s assignment for Delta Air Lines, which seeks to combine with Northwest.
Meantime, Moelis & Co., founded last year by former Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette star Ken Moelis, is advising on Yahoo’s defense against the Microsoft takeover offer, while Blackstone has an advisory credit on the Microsoft side. Moelis also is advising Westwood One and Entravision on much smaller, $100 million deals. Blackstone is advising Northern Rock on the $4.4 billion sale of a mortgage portfolio to J.P. Morgan.
Then there is Lazard, which not only has found a place on the biggest deal extant, BHP Billiton’s proposed $150 billion combination with Rio Tinto, but also on Gaz de France’s 45-billion-euro merger with Suez and Trane’s $10 billion sale to Ingersoll-Rand. It also advised China Investment Corp. on its investment in Morgan Stanley and the Kuwaiti Investment Authority for its investment in Citigroup.
Sure, the deals are not many and they are not huge (with the exception of Microsoft-Yahoo and BHP-Rio, of course). A volume business, this isn’t. Still, they are big enough to be moneymakers, and without elaborate debt financing involved, have a better chance of closing than your average leveraged buyout. A surprising number also are international; while you would expect Lazard, with its European roots, to do well overseas, Greenhill and Evercore also frequently look outside U.S. borders. In fact, while Lazard drew a little more than 50% of its revenue from foreign deals last year, Greenhill drew even more, or about 64%, of its advisory revenue from clients outside the U.S., according to the firm’s latest annual report. That isn’t even counting big potential paydays like the $32.6 billion buyout of BCE, a Greenhill client.
Still, the boutiques have diversified. Goldman Sachs research analysts said of Lazard last month, “The firm has never been in a stronger position, in our view.” Lazard’s advisory revenue last year was a record $1.25 billion, up from $973 million in 2006 and constituted the vast majority of the firm’s total $2 billion in revenue. More importantly, its asset-management revenue jumped 31% to $717 million. The firm’s restructuring bankers are working on deals advising Adelphia Communications, SunCom Wireless, Eurotunnel, Tower Automotive, InSight Health Services, New Century Financial Corp. and the Northwest Airlines Creditors Committee.
Some boutiques have a ways to go: While Greenhill had a record year, with 33% growth in advisory revenue, it still is highly concentrated in advisory work; $366.7 million of its revenue came from merger advice, while only $33.7 million came from their own private-equity investments. That compared with $209 million of advisory revenue and $80.8 million in revenue from PE investments last year.
Mr. Market isn’t showing much faith in these firms, as skepticism reigns over financial stocks. Lazard’s shares are down nearly 30% in the past year. Evercore’s are down nearly 40%. Greenhill’s are down about 3%. Life’s tough in the big leagues.