RAH谷物食品花开两朵各有千秋

11/26

如果你觉得摆满了廉价伙食的假日晚餐的显得水平下降，比如酸果曼沙司以及其它经过精打细算的晚餐，不要惊讶或失望。同时对于早餐来说，你的主人可能已经将名牌的麦片等食品从菜单上除名了。Ralcorp Holdings(代號:RAH)就是在目前艰难经济环境下，能够令你过上精打细算然而依旧不失水平的日子。这是一家自主生产食品和小吃的行业佼佼者，公司目前拥有自主品牌的谷物麦片产品，尤其是在今年8月斥资26亿美元从Kraft Foods(代號:KFT) 那里收购了Post Foods之后，公司更是壮大了自主食品生产线。目前公司已经开始出售Post Foods畅销的Honey Bunches燕麦，以及Post Raisin Bran, Grape-Nuts, Spoon Size Shredded Wheat, Pebbles和Post Selects等的谷物食品。分析师表示：“在经济衰退时期，人们往往会降低采购量，但是仍然有客户钟情于品牌食品。”

Ralcorp向Wal-Mart(代號:WMT) 以及其它零售连锁店、药店和食品供货商出售自主生产的食品。基于近期的商店调查，研究机构Information Resources Inc.预期，这个假日里的自主品牌产品将出现良好的销售状况。“91%以上的结果证明，人们会在假日经济里将平常不会购买的品牌食品摆上自己的餐桌。” 但是去年只有不到40%的商店表示，将进货一些自主品牌食品以供假日采购需求。在品牌店面方面，公司出售各种品牌的自主产品，几乎占到美国所有超市此板块的五分之一。据近期一项研究调查显示，去年所有销售管道的自主品牌食品销售额已经达到了800亿美元，同比为720亿美元。

公司今年的自主品牌食品销售额上涨了10% 。近期，自主品牌食品行业发布的年增长率同比达到5%以上，主要受累于整体经济大势疲软。但是今年夏天以来，公司的业务着实出现了强劲的增长。尽管自主品牌食品价格不菲，主要受到食品价格整体上涨的推动。部门的业务增长依然较为平缓。但是三季度这出现了转折。三季度的自主品牌食品单位销售额增长率由16% 升至17% 。分析师表示：“这是很大的涨幅。”但是自主品牌的谷物产品销售额依然平缓，市场占有率仅为13% 。

公司经营着所有的客户门店品牌产品。目前公司将致力于开发一种全国性的大品牌，名为Post，那么门店品牌会和全国品牌产品向竞争吗？分析师表示，就目前的市场占有率来看，仍然有较大的空间来满足两种产品的发展。“那些能够在全国品牌和自主品牌产品间求的平衡运营的零售商，才是最后真正的赢家。”但是自主品牌与品牌经营是两种不同概念，后者需要大规模的广告和市场运作，这就是为什么全国性品牌价格往往要比自主品牌价格高出20-30%的原因。同时，利润率也远远高于自主品牌产品。


分析师表示：“由于Kraft忽视了在Post产品上进行充分投资，因此目前对于公司来说是开发此款产品的大好时机，尤其是在人们开始越来越倾向于在家做饭的时刻。”预计公司将在促销和广告方面投入大笔资金，并在多家超市和零售商店里占据大量货架，与其它的谷物食品进行竞争。公司的副总裁表示，Post的战略转变主要是从金融角度出发，旨在吸引大量客户，同时公司也对此举甚为满意。同时公司本身就是谷物产品的行家里手，因此是不费吹灰之力的。

公司于1994年从Ralston Purina剥离后，就开始出售全国性的品牌食品，包括Chex谷物和Beech-Nut婴儿食品，之后开始专注于经营自主品牌。因此分析师普遍看好公司投资Post谷物食品。“公司应该能够取得成功的，因为他们最大的核心业务就是谷物产品。”同时分析师也表示，Post此举仅是公司品牌产品收购战略的第一步。通过收购品牌食品来扩大自主品牌产品是公司一贯的战略准则。近十年来，公司已经收购了超过20家企业，近五年来的收购数量达到12家。Post Foods目前年销售额达到10亿美元，就是公司最大规模的一笔收购，已经促进营收增长了40%以上。四季度Post Foods创造的销售额达到1.805亿美元，四季度总销售额达到2.653亿美元，每股收益同增长了41%至0.83美元。管理层预测今年全年的每股收益将再上涨0.44美元，Thomson Reuters分析师预期将上涨14%至4.12美元。


Private-Label Food Maker Buys Post Cereal, Tries To Build Up Brand

* Marilyn Alva
* Tuesday November 25, 2008, 5:53 pm EST

Don't be surprised if holiday dinner tables get downgraded a bit this season with lower-priced private-label side dishes, cranberry sauces and other budget trimmings.

Yet for breakfast, hosts might still pull out their favorite brand-name cereal from the cupboard.

Ralcorp Holdings (NYSE:RAH - News) covers both plates.

Long the leader in private-label foods and snacks (also known as store brands), Ralcorp now has brand-name cereals under its belt, thanks to its $2.6 billion buy of Post Foods from Kraft Foods (NYSE:KFT - News) in August.

With the Post buy, it now sells Post's popular Honey Bunches of Oats and other iconic cereal brands such as Post Raisin Bran, Grape-Nuts, Spoon Size Shredded Wheat, Pebbles and Post Selects.

"People are trading down in these recessionary times, but some consumers like their brands," said John Staszak, an analyst with Argus Research.

Grocery Isle

Ralcorp sells to Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) and other grocery stores, drug stores and food-service customers.

Based on the results of a recent shopper survey, Information Resources Inc. (IRI) expects private-label foods to have a merry holiday.

"Ninety-one percent said they would try to put private-label products on their dinner table this holiday season," said IRI president Thom Blischok. That compares with the less than 40% of shoppers polled last year who said they would buy private labels over the holidays.

Store brands, sold under various labels, account for one of every five items sold in U.S. supermarkets, drug chains and mass-merchandise chains, says the Private Label Manufacturing Association.

According to a recent report by the Nielsen Co., private-label sales in all such retail channels in the last year tallied $80 billion, up from $72 billion a year ago. Grocery private-label sales are up 10%.

Lately, the private-label industry has been growing by more than the usual single digits of prior years as consumers trade down.

Business really picked up this summer, says Blischok.

While private-label dollar volumes had been going up in tandem with food-price increases (more than 6% annually), unit growth had been fairly flat.

That changed in the third quarter. Unit share of private-label products sold in retail outlets rose one share point, from 16% to 17%. (Dollar volume share is above 20%.), Blischok says.

"It's very significant," Blischok said of the unit-volume uptick.

But private-label dry cereal sales are relatively flat with a little over 13% unit-volume market share, according to research.

Ralcorp operated under the cover of its customers' store brands. Now, it will be the power behind a national brand, Post.

Will the two types of businesses compete with each other? Ralcorp and industry observers say there's room for both.

"The retailer that wins big time is the retailer who balances the role of national brands with private-label brands," Blischok said.

But brands are a different kind of business than private labels. They are backed by heavy advertising and marketing, which is the main reason they are 20% to 30% more expensive than private-label products. But margins are higher than private labels.

"Kraft wasn't investing in the (Post) brand sufficiently so it's an opportunity for Ralcorp to build and develop the brand, and take advantage of a time when people are purchasing more food for home," Staszak said.

He says Ralcorp will need to invest heavily in promoting and advertising the cereals, and compete for shelf space with other cereal brands.

Why change course? Scott Monette, Ralcorp's corporate vice president, says the Post deal was attractive from a financial standpoint. And the company is comfortable with the cereal business.

Though Post Foods' management came over the aisle to Ralcorp, Ralcorp itself is no stranger to cereals. Cereals, crackers and cookies together comprise its largest category, followed by frozen bakery goods, dressings, sauces and snack items.

And years ago, Ralcorp, which was spun off from Ralston Purina in 1994, sold national brands Chex cereal and Beech-Nut baby food before selling them to focus on private labels.

If Ralcorp invests in the Post cereals brands, "it should do well," Staszak said.

BB&T Capital Markets analyst Heather Jones added: "Their biggest core competency is in cereal."

The Post cereal deal sets the stage for more branded acquisitions, Jones says.

Growth By Acquisition

It's not that Ralcorp's growth in private-label food products hasn't been decent. Sales have grown at a double-digit clip the last few years.

A lot of the growth comes as it scooped up smaller players in the private-label business. In the last decade, it has bought more than 20 outfits, about a dozen in the last five years. Bloomfield Bakers came onboard last year.

Post Foods, with more than $1 billion in annual sales, was Ralcorp's largest acquisition, not to mention its only national brand addition. It bumped up revenue by more than 40%.

Post added about $180.5 million to fiscal fourth-quarter sales ended Sept. 30. Sales in the quarter totaled $265.3 million, while profit from the year-ago period grew 41% to 83 cents a share.

Management expects the Post business to add 44 cents a share in profit during the first full year of ownership. For the fiscal year ending in September, analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters estimate profit will climb 14% to $4.12 a share.