Friday, December 5, 2008

为何我们都看走了眼?

经济预测师流年不利,连皇室都怀疑,是哪里出了问题。英国女王上月访问伦敦政治经济学院(LSE)时问到:“为何没人料到?”

女王的问题激起一片可笑的声言,纷纷宣称某某预测师有先见之明。

“尽管有着各式MBA的银行家们似乎被金融危机惊得目瞪口呆,格雷欣学院(Gresham College)在伦敦市中心举行的免费公开演讲的老听众却不会。”上月发布的一份新闻稿如此宣称,并引证阿维纳什•佩尔绍德(Avinash Persaud)在2002年11月发表的一场演讲。然而,不但这番声明言过其实,那场演讲也令人失望。“尽管企业破产案创纪录、经济疲弱以及市场崩溃, 但银行大体上是安全的。”这就是佩尔绍德教授的结论。

意大利财政部长朱利奥•特雷蒙蒂(Giulio Tremonti)上月提高了预测门槛,声称本笃十六世(Pope Benedict XVI)是第一个预见到危机的。据特雷蒙蒂说,一份1985年的文件显示,本笃十六世“预言放任的经济将自行崩溃”。

比较接近事实的是英国央行副行长毕恩(Charlie Bean)较为平实的判断。毕恩指出,全球经济的基本面长期以来困扰着许多经济学家和政策制定者。他表示:“我们知道那不可维系,也担心可能进行无序的调整,但我不认为会有人猜测到实际的调整过程。”

信贷危机无疑让多数勤勉的经济预测师颜面尽失,这场危机已演变成席卷发达经济体的衰退。但政策制定者也有理由感到畏缩。

在2005年参议院就提名他当美联储(Fed)主席举行的听证会上,本•贝南克(Ben Bernanke)表示,美国金融体系受益于一系列危机,这些危机使其增强了应对艰难时期的能力。他表示:“金融市场的深度、流动性和灵活性都大为增强。”

欧洲政策制定者在预测上也是半斤八两。欧洲央行行长让-克劳德•特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)在7月中旬向四家报纸表示:“我们的基本预测是:在今年第二、第三季度,欧元区经济增长将出现低谷,之后将逐渐恢复到持续的温长增长。” 事与愿违,欧洲正迎来自上世纪90年代初以来最大幅度的衰退。

英国央行行长默文•金(Mervyn King)没有预料到英国会陷入严重衰退。他在5月份坚称:“在某个时候,出现一两个季度负增长的可能性很大,但衰退绝非核心预测。”

全球领导人对国际机构寄予新的厚望,希望它们能够就未来问题提供早期预警,但它们同样看走了眼。在2007年春季预测报告中,国际货币基金组织 (IMF)极力唱好全球经济。该机构在时任首席经济学家西蒙•约翰逊(Simon Johnson)监督下的《世界经济展望》报告表示:“比起6个月前,经济前景的总体风险似乎威胁性减弱。”

独立经济学家的预测同样不佳。共识经济学公司(Consensus Economics)按月编制的增长预测显示,随着华尔街和伦敦金融城的专业人士纷纷卷入事端,悲观情绪不断加重。

就连一贯唱空的人士也没想到,信贷泡沫与大宗商品牛市会一起全面破裂。全球“末日博士”鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)在一定程度上预见到了此次危机,但他也是随着信贷危机的冲击加重而不断下调预测。

媒体无法宣称更富有洞察力。虽然部分评论员发现他们对危机的预测应验了,但没有人窥见到全貌,而且,许多人是靠运气,他们预测的10场危机中最终有 两场应验。但回头看自己7月份所作的预测时,我的难堪并未因其他人的运气而有所减轻。我当时的预测是:衰退“可能发生,但英国尚未到那个地步,甚至也没到 接近衰退的边缘”。众所周知,英国已在衰退之中,甚至就在那个时候。

虽然回顾经济学家所讲的种种蠢话很有趣,但更有价值的是梳理哪些具体缺陷导致全体预测师无法预见到当前乱局。

首先是全球经济面对系统性银行崩溃所表现出来的意想不到、如今却又显而易见的脆弱。高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)表示,雷曼兄弟 (Lehman Brothers)破产是一个“改变游戏的事件”,在那之前,他的预测是“安全无虞”,在那之后,“我们急于求生”。

其次,正如汇丰银行(HSBC)首席经济学家简世勋(Stephen King)所说:“几乎所有经济模型都假定金融系统在‘运转'。”总体而言,经济学家没有预料到,本十年上半部分较为宽松的货币政策会导致信贷空前扩张。

第三是2008年上半年的大宗商品牛市严重挤压了家庭和企业的收入,而几乎没有人预测到这一点。这削弱了非金融行业,使银行没有机会去补救次贷危机造成的损害,同时这也是今年秋季开始的这场灾难的一个核心要素。

第四,多数经济模型表明,货币需求将保持稳定,但银行和家庭目前都已开始囤积现金。这可能导致货币政策丧失作为推动经济复苏工具的效用,预测模型通常没有考虑到这一点。

第五是在预测中过度依赖于产出缺口,即产出水平与可持续产出预期之间的差距。这使得政策制定者相信,经济中一切情况良好,因为通胀得到了控制,增长也未过度。

第六,当事态发生时,人们的自然倾向是去探寻其中的原理,而非分析这一事态能否持续。哈佛教授、IMF前首席经济学家肯尼斯•罗格夫(Kenneth Rogoff)认为,乐观倾向在华尔街尤其盛行。他表示,在华尔街,“大空头很难在职场谋生”。

学术界和美联储也落入将全球经济不可持续的特征合理化的窠臼。哈佛大学的里卡多•奥斯曼(Ricardo Hausmann)和费德里科•施图尔辛格(Federico Sturzenegger)在2005年发表的一篇论文让人们对以下可能性激动不已:金融“暗物质”将防止全球经济“大爆炸”。该论文的结论是:不相信这 种暗物质,“使分析师预测将发生危机,而这种危机出于很好的理由,仍不可捉摸”。

“末日博士”的见解也值得注意,他们准确抓住了这场迷局的一些要点,虽然在时间或其它细节上没有拿准。鲁比尼目前在经营咨询公司RGE Monitor,他在2004年8月与布拉德•赛斯特(Brad Setser)合著的论文中预测到,全球贸易失衡不可持续,可能“在未来三至四年内摧垮整个系统”。在理解金融市场与实体经济之间的联系方面,他是有先见 之明的。

位于瑞士巴塞尔的“央行的央行”——国际清算银行(BIS)前首席经济学家威廉•怀特(William White)对宽松货币政策和未能阻止信贷扩张一向持批评态度。罗格夫教授在2004年与莫里斯•奥布斯菲尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)合作的论文中也提到了全球经济不可持续的扩张的危险。在近期与卡门•莱因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)合作的论文中,罗格夫着重指出,政策制定者落入了“此次情况不同”的陷阱,此种陷阱可追溯至14世纪英格兰违约事件。

佩尔绍德教授多年来坦诚地就VaR模型的不可靠及其鼓励羊群行为的倾向发出警告。而在FT的2008经济学家调查中,另一位长期唱空者、来自剑桥大 学的韦恩•戈德利(Wynne Godley)表示:“我认为,金融市场失灵,很可能导致美国非金融信贷的大规模崩溃,从而引发比几十年来其它任何一场衰退都更为深重和顽固的衰退——也 会比其他任何人所预料的程度更深。”事实确然如此。

政策制定者也远非总是出错。特里谢喜欢夸耀自己怎样预测到危机,他引用一篇FT文章,证明那些警告绝非央行家一贯信口发表的风险评论。英国央行行长默文•金多年来就全球经济中显而易见的风险发出警告;IMF则一再警告房价水平不可持续。

日前,金在议会称赞了威廉姆•比特(Willem Buiter)在FT.com上的博客,比特警告称,不要高看某些结果证明是准确的预测,因为那只是幸运,而非明智。比特强调:“马后炮没有用。人们必须看当时可用的信息和论点。”

这的确在理,也应成为任何预测判断或政策决策的依据。但经济预测报告的购买者也需了解经济模型的优缺点。他们应关注各种风险,不应只看核心预测。

高盛的奥尼尔表示,私人部门的经济学家应尽量“少许诺,多做事”。尽管才华横溢并有着最复杂的模型,他们“并未也无法预测到雷曼‘事件'”。

要是世人早日留心比较年轻时候的拉辛格枢机主教(Cardinal Ratzinger)在20多年前所说的话,预测他会成为下任教皇就是顺理成章的事情了。


Wednesday, December 3, 2008

RAH谷物食品花开两朵各有千秋

11/26

如果你觉得摆满了廉价伙食的假日晚餐的显得水平下降,比如酸果曼沙司以及其它经过精打细算的晚餐,不要惊讶或失望。同时对于早餐来说,你的主人可能已经将名牌的麦片等食品从菜单上除名了。Ralcorp Holdings(代號:RAH)就是在目前艰难经济环境下,能够令你过上精打细算然而依旧不失水平的日子。这是一家自主生产食品和小吃的行业佼佼者,公司目前拥有自主品牌的谷物麦片产品,尤其是在今年8月斥资26亿美元从Kraft Foods(代號:KFT) 那里收购了Post Foods之后,公司更是壮大了自主食品生产线。目前公司已经开始出售Post Foods畅销的Honey Bunches燕麦,以及Post Raisin Bran, Grape-Nuts, Spoon Size Shredded Wheat, Pebbles和Post Selects等的谷物食品。分析师表示:“在经济衰退时期,人们往往会降低采购量,但是仍然有客户钟情于品牌食品。”

Ralcorp向Wal-Mart(代號:WMT) 以及其它零售连锁店、药店和食品供货商出售自主生产的食品。基于近期的商店调查,研究机构Information Resources Inc.预期,这个假日里的自主品牌产品将出现良好的销售状况。“91%以上的结果证明,人们会在假日经济里将平常不会购买的品牌食品摆上自己的餐桌。” 但是去年只有不到40%的商店表示,将进货一些自主品牌食品以供假日采购需求。在品牌店面方面,公司出售各种品牌的自主产品,几乎占到美国所有超市此板块的五分之一。据近期一项研究调查显示,去年所有销售管道的自主品牌食品销售额已经达到了800亿美元,同比为720亿美元。

公司今年的自主品牌食品销售额上涨了10% 。近期,自主品牌食品行业发布的年增长率同比达到5%以上,主要受累于整体经济大势疲软。但是今年夏天以来,公司的业务着实出现了强劲的增长。尽管自主品牌食品价格不菲,主要受到食品价格整体上涨的推动。部门的业务增长依然较为平缓。但是三季度这出现了转折。三季度的自主品牌食品单位销售额增长率由16% 升至17% 。分析师表示:“这是很大的涨幅。”但是自主品牌的谷物产品销售额依然平缓,市场占有率仅为13% 。

公司经营着所有的客户门店品牌产品。目前公司将致力于开发一种全国性的大品牌,名为Post,那么门店品牌会和全国品牌产品向竞争吗?分析师表示,就目前的市场占有率来看,仍然有较大的空间来满足两种产品的发展。“那些能够在全国品牌和自主品牌产品间求的平衡运营的零售商,才是最后真正的赢家。”但是自主品牌与品牌经营是两种不同概念,后者需要大规模的广告和市场运作,这就是为什么全国性品牌价格往往要比自主品牌价格高出20-30%的原因。同时,利润率也远远高于自主品牌产品。


分析师表示:“由于Kraft忽视了在Post产品上进行充分投资,因此目前对于公司来说是开发此款产品的大好时机,尤其是在人们开始越来越倾向于在家做饭的时刻。”预计公司将在促销和广告方面投入大笔资金,并在多家超市和零售商店里占据大量货架,与其它的谷物食品进行竞争。公司的副总裁表示,Post的战略转变主要是从金融角度出发,旨在吸引大量客户,同时公司也对此举甚为满意。同时公司本身就是谷物产品的行家里手,因此是不费吹灰之力的。

公司于1994年从Ralston Purina剥离后,就开始出售全国性的品牌食品,包括Chex谷物和Beech-Nut婴儿食品,之后开始专注于经营自主品牌。因此分析师普遍看好公司投资Post谷物食品。“公司应该能够取得成功的,因为他们最大的核心业务就是谷物产品。”同时分析师也表示,Post此举仅是公司品牌产品收购战略的第一步。通过收购品牌食品来扩大自主品牌产品是公司一贯的战略准则。近十年来,公司已经收购了超过20家企业,近五年来的收购数量达到12家。Post Foods目前年销售额达到10亿美元,就是公司最大规模的一笔收购,已经促进营收增长了40%以上。四季度Post Foods创造的销售额达到1.805亿美元,四季度总销售额达到2.653亿美元,每股收益同增长了41%至0.83美元。管理层预测今年全年的每股收益将再上涨0.44美元,Thomson Reuters分析师预期将上涨14%至4.12美元。


Private-Label Food Maker Buys Post Cereal, Tries To Build Up Brand

* Marilyn Alva
* Tuesday November 25, 2008, 5:53 pm EST

Don't be surprised if holiday dinner tables get downgraded a bit this season with lower-priced private-label side dishes, cranberry sauces and other budget trimmings.

Yet for breakfast, hosts might still pull out their favorite brand-name cereal from the cupboard.

Ralcorp Holdings (NYSE:RAH - News) covers both plates.

Long the leader in private-label foods and snacks (also known as store brands), Ralcorp now has brand-name cereals under its belt, thanks to its $2.6 billion buy of Post Foods from Kraft Foods (NYSE:KFT - News) in August.

With the Post buy, it now sells Post's popular Honey Bunches of Oats and other iconic cereal brands such as Post Raisin Bran, Grape-Nuts, Spoon Size Shredded Wheat, Pebbles and Post Selects.

"People are trading down in these recessionary times, but some consumers like their brands," said John Staszak, an analyst with Argus Research.

Grocery Isle

Ralcorp sells to Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT - News) and other grocery stores, drug stores and food-service customers.

Based on the results of a recent shopper survey, Information Resources Inc. (IRI) expects private-label foods to have a merry holiday.

"Ninety-one percent said they would try to put private-label products on their dinner table this holiday season," said IRI president Thom Blischok. That compares with the less than 40% of shoppers polled last year who said they would buy private labels over the holidays.

Store brands, sold under various labels, account for one of every five items sold in U.S. supermarkets, drug chains and mass-merchandise chains, says the Private Label Manufacturing Association.

According to a recent report by the Nielsen Co., private-label sales in all such retail channels in the last year tallied $80 billion, up from $72 billion a year ago. Grocery private-label sales are up 10%.

Lately, the private-label industry has been growing by more than the usual single digits of prior years as consumers trade down.

Business really picked up this summer, says Blischok.

While private-label dollar volumes had been going up in tandem with food-price increases (more than 6% annually), unit growth had been fairly flat.

That changed in the third quarter. Unit share of private-label products sold in retail outlets rose one share point, from 16% to 17%. (Dollar volume share is above 20%.), Blischok says.

"It's very significant," Blischok said of the unit-volume uptick.

But private-label dry cereal sales are relatively flat with a little over 13% unit-volume market share, according to research.

Ralcorp operated under the cover of its customers' store brands. Now, it will be the power behind a national brand, Post.

Will the two types of businesses compete with each other? Ralcorp and industry observers say there's room for both.

"The retailer that wins big time is the retailer who balances the role of national brands with private-label brands," Blischok said.

But brands are a different kind of business than private labels. They are backed by heavy advertising and marketing, which is the main reason they are 20% to 30% more expensive than private-label products. But margins are higher than private labels.

"Kraft wasn't investing in the (Post) brand sufficiently so it's an opportunity for Ralcorp to build and develop the brand, and take advantage of a time when people are purchasing more food for home," Staszak said.

He says Ralcorp will need to invest heavily in promoting and advertising the cereals, and compete for shelf space with other cereal brands.

Why change course? Scott Monette, Ralcorp's corporate vice president, says the Post deal was attractive from a financial standpoint. And the company is comfortable with the cereal business.

Though Post Foods' management came over the aisle to Ralcorp, Ralcorp itself is no stranger to cereals. Cereals, crackers and cookies together comprise its largest category, followed by frozen bakery goods, dressings, sauces and snack items.

And years ago, Ralcorp, which was spun off from Ralston Purina in 1994, sold national brands Chex cereal and Beech-Nut baby food before selling them to focus on private labels.

If Ralcorp invests in the Post cereals brands, "it should do well," Staszak said.

BB&T Capital Markets analyst Heather Jones added: "Their biggest core competency is in cereal."

The Post cereal deal sets the stage for more branded acquisitions, Jones says.

Growth By Acquisition

It's not that Ralcorp's growth in private-label food products hasn't been decent. Sales have grown at a double-digit clip the last few years.

A lot of the growth comes as it scooped up smaller players in the private-label business. In the last decade, it has bought more than 20 outfits, about a dozen in the last five years. Bloomfield Bakers came onboard last year.

Post Foods, with more than $1 billion in annual sales, was Ralcorp's largest acquisition, not to mention its only national brand addition. It bumped up revenue by more than 40%.

Post added about $180.5 million to fiscal fourth-quarter sales ended Sept. 30. Sales in the quarter totaled $265.3 million, while profit from the year-ago period grew 41% to 83 cents a share.

Management expects the Post business to add 44 cents a share in profit during the first full year of ownership. For the fiscal year ending in September, analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters estimate profit will climb 14% to $4.12 a share.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

BEAT实时心脏监测仪器财源广进

11/18 02:46 EST


今年对于Cardio-Net(代號:BEAT) 来说是个好年头,尤其是一份丰盛的万圣节业务订单,是一份来自政府的心脏监控最总设备业务订单。去年10月30日,公司为美国医疗保险制度建立了一套全国医疗设备退还,每件成本为1,450美元的产品将可以退还得到1,123美元。公司的总裁兼CEO Arie Cohen表示,此项新制度将令一切显得极为容易。“主要是向目前没有CardioNet System的商业付款人提供准确确认,并为内科医生提供简单而稳定的退还设备环境。我们相信大多数的内科医生将使用我们的商业付款制度,并为未来的业务增长构筑稳定基础。”

对于既拥有新型技术,又比同行价格高的CardioNet来说,CardioNet的旗舰设备产品主要是Mobile Cardiac Output Telemetry系统,简称为MCOT。这是一项主要使用于监测和确诊心律失常的仪器。病人通过挂在脖子上的小型传感器来监测心脏跳动频率。这种仪器既可以穿在衣服里面,又可以随身携带,仪器的传感红外线将传输到公司的监控站,在那里,医学专家将对此进行跟踪监测。这种实时的跟踪监测有别于以往的仪器。目前多数医生使用的是Holter监测仪,只能够连续使用24到48小时。CardioNet表示这种旧产品对于心脏病患者突发或是实时监测是远远不够用。

公司自行研发的仪器显示,约有17%的心律失常患者是无临床症状的,这就意味着患者并不能意识到自己患有的病症。分析师表示:“可能有的病人之时觉得喘不过气来,并不知道自己已经身患疾病继续治疗。”但是心律失常可不是什么小病,每年的患者数量达到750,000人次,约有50万人死去。多数的心律失常是由心房颤动造成的,主要由中风引发。作为主攻健康保健业务的企业。CardioNet去年进行了一项300人次的调查,MCOT系统从中诊断出23%的人患有这种疾病。因此公司打出了3X口号,即三次诊断结果速记法。MCOT系统成本远高于同行的其它产品,几乎是其它产品的六倍之多。但是公司表示他们的产品是物超所值的。

自从03年公司推出此项系统以来,医生已经在超过130K名病人身上使用了此项系统。约有180名商业付款人开始应用此项系统,覆盖了1.77亿人次,约占目前市场的72% 。所有付款都是通过在线进行的。公司于今年三月份上市,到目前为止仅有两个季度的营收报告,但都是盈利的。三季度每股收益比上涨了38%至0.11美元;销售额攀升了52%至3120万美元。Thomson Reuters分析师预期这种利好状态将明年仍将继续保持。预计明年每股收益将攀升132%至0.86美元,销售额将上涨37%至1.636亿美元。

收购交易对于公司来说也是规模增长不可或缺的战略。通过持续性的PDSHeart整合赢得规模效益。去年的一项收购交易令公司扩大了地理覆盖面,并令销售额翻了双倍。本季度的电话会议上,公司CEO表示客户仍然覆盖了MCOT业绩的4% 。分析师表示,公司主要竞争对手是Raytel,以及LifeWatch。

BLUD自动化血液监测仪无人匹敌

11/19 02:27 EST


今天我们说说市场垄断。假设一位不幸遭遇车祸的病人急需器官移植,或是贫血症的糖尿病患者急需同样血型,一旦输入血型不配对将造成严重医疗事故。Immucor(代號:BLUD) 就在这个行业处于垄断地位,公司生产并制造自动化的、能够提供精准血液分析的仪器和化学品。上个月,公司发布了自1982年成立以来最好的季报,业绩预案高于预期。公司预测09年一季度每股收益将达到0.28美元,高于共识0.05美元。本季度销售额同比上涨了15%至7320万美元。目前公司拥有 8900万美元自有现金。

在基本面方面,公司可谓是以尖端技术独占鳌头,一览众山小,行业界几乎无人匹敌。公司的产品无论在什么样的经济环境下都能够获得利润。分析师表示:“你很难在行业内再找到基本面这么优秀的公司了。”公司主要服务的客户是医院、血库和诊所实验室。Galileo和Echo系统是公司最卖座的热门产品。 Galileo主要适用于大规模的医学活动中,而Echo则使用于小型医学活动,因为Echo更加小巧和快速,极受中小型医院的青睐。公司还出售 Capture Workstation,这是一种自动化半导体手动输血测试仪。公司制造并出售此种仪器相关的试剂和药品,以及区分血液型号和组成的化学试剂。

这些拳头产品是公司业务增长的摇钱树。对于公司的产品来说,全球市场商机无限,预计总市值将达到10亿美元。公司面向自动化操作的转变是拓展全球市场的重要战略步骤。公司于1985年上市,在美国市场拥有70%的业务,其余则散布全球各地。公司主要的竞争对手是OrthoClinical Diagnostics,这是Johnson&Johnson(代號:JNJ)旗下的一个部门。分析师表示:“目前的市场是由这两家巨头操控的。”但是两家公司的技术大相径庭。两家公司都提供分析仪器和配对试剂,但是最大的不同点在于,检测的速度和容量。

分析师表示:“Immucor的仪器总是能够领先于OrthoClinical Diagnostics,主要由于公司的系统优越于后者。”因此,行业内无人匹敌的优越性意味着创新速度放缓,分析师表示,是自动化操作的核心产品使得公司拥有行业领先的地位,现在公司应当专注于研发的投入。第四杜宇公司来说,开发硬件的成本仍然是较大的障碍。并且目前的市场尚不足以吸收非常新颖的产品,市场空间有限,仅为6亿美元。“这么小的市场空间尚不足以吸引较大的市场制造商。”

公司最重要的竞争来自医院和进行血液测试的机构,主要通过旧的途径:将血液样本送到实验室进行手动式检测。目前美国约有75%的输血检验是通过手动实现的,这种现象已经存在很长时间了。分析师表示:“一旦有人出了一个错误,结果将不堪设想。”同时这种测试方法还存在价格昂贵的弊端,因为技术师的薪水要求是很高的。因此随着技术师年龄增大,此行业亟待自动化仪器来取代人工测试。公司推出的自动化实验仪器的确是一鸣惊人。分析师表示,在美国,每年有1400 万名数输血病人需要进行血液检测。而输血引发的医疗事故每年也是直线上升。因此市场对于精确的自动化血液检测仪器的需求量极大。

Thomson Reuters分析师预期公司09年每股收益将由1美元降至0.98美元,主要由于公司今年进行了收购交易。今年八月公司斥资1.17亿美元收购了 BioArray。公司主席Edward Gallup表示此项收购交易将促进公司今年每股收益增长0.17-0.18美元。BioArray还为公司带来了新颖尖端的医学技术:输血分子诊断技术。Edward Gallup表示:“我们信相信此项收购将使公司机身世界领先的输血预期制造商行列。”目前公司股价接近25美元,12月内销售达到2.71亿美元,五年内利润增长率为53% 。

Investor's Business Daily
Medical Products Maker's Blood-Testing Tools Dominate The Field
Wednesday November 19, 8:10 pm ET
Peter Benesh

Talk about a captive market. Say you're an accident victim or a transplant patient or an anemic diabetic, and you need a blood transfusion.

You want the right blood type, no ifs, ands or buts. A mismatch can be deadly.

Immucor (NasdaqGS:BLUD - News) makes machines and chemicals for automated, accurate analysis of blood for type and antibodies. Last month, the company reported its best quarter since it was founded in 1982.

It blasted past analysts' expectations, says David Turkaly, an analyst at Susquehanna Financial Group, which owns Immucor shares.

The company delivered earnings of 28 cents per share in its 2009 first quarter. That beat consensus views by 5 cents.

Sales rose 15% year over year to $73.2 million for the quarter. Immucor has $89 million in cash.

Company Fundamentals

Immucor has good technology and little competition, and its products will be needed no matter what the state of the economy, Turkaly says.

"It's tough to find companies with such good fundamentals," he said.

The firm's customers are hospitals, blood banks and clinical labs. The company's top-selling instruments are its Galileo and Echo systems.

Galileo is for high-volume use. The smaller and faster Echo is for lower volumes, as in small and midsize hospitals.

Immucor also sells the Capture Workstation, which semi-automates manual lab tests of pre-transfusion blood. It makes and sells the reagents required by its devices.

Reagents are chemicals that identify blood components. They're the razor blades in Immucor's business.

The global market opportunity for all Immucor's products could be as much as $1 billion, Turkaly says. The switch to automation will expand the market.

The firm went public in 1985. It gets 70% of its business from the U.S., while the rest of the world accounts for the remainder.

Its major competitor is Ortho Clinical Diagnostics, a unit of Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News). "It's essentially a duopoly," Turkaly said.

The two technologies are very different, says Joshua Zable, an analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder. Both companies supply the analytical equipment and matching reagents.

The big difference, Zable says, is speed and volume: "Immucor stands way above J&J with more advanced instruments with better throughput."

"You could argue," said Turkaly, "that both of Immucor's systems are better mousetraps than J&J's."

The absence of competition has meant less innovation in the automation of pre-transfusion blood, says Quintin Lai, an analyst at Robert W. Baird, which seeks Immucor's investment banking business.

Immucor has the leadership position because automation is its core business, and that's where it concentrates its R&D dollars, Lai says.

Major competition isn't likely, Zable says. That's because the cost of developing new hardware and reagents to penetrate an established duopoly is a high barrier.

And the market won't be big enough to attract a big firm with deep pockets, according to Lai. The entire world reagent market is just $600 million, "not big enough to attract a major diagnostic player," he said.

Immucor's most important competition comes from hospitals and agencies that still test blood the old-fashioned way: by sending blood samples to a lab where someone assesses each specimen by hand, one at a time.

About 75% of U.S. pre-transfusion blood testing is done manually, Turkaly says, and that takes a long time.

Human error is always a concern.

The risk is considerable, says Lai: "If you make a mistake, the result can be dramatic and sometimes fatal."

And it's expensive. Salaries are high for skilled people who can do the lab work and interpret the results, Lai says. Those with the skills are aging and leaving the work force, pushing blood banks to automate.

Using a machine that does the analysis automatically is a real cost-saver. A machine can do 20 samples in the time it takes a person to do one, Turkaly says.

Each year, more than four million Americans need blood transfusions, according to the American Association of Blood Banks. Blood banks collect 14 million pints of blood each year.

In the U.S., each unit is tested for type and for hepatitis B and C, HIV, human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 and syphilis.

The most common and deadliest risk associated with transfusion is hemolytic transfusion reaction, which can be caused by a mismatch in blood types. The reaction destroys red blood cells.

About one in 33,000 transfused units triggers this potentially deadly reaction. That's twice the rate of all the other possible infections from blood transfusions, according to the Food and Drug Administration.

Thomson Reuters analysts see Immucor's 2009 per-share earnings slipping to 98 cents from $1 in 2008. Immucor's fiscal year ends in May.

New Acquisition

The reason for the decline is a recent acquisition. Immucor paid $117 million for BioArray, closing the deal in August.

Edward Gallup, Immucor's chairman, said in an October conference call that the buy would mean dilution of 17 to 18 cents in the current fiscal year. The company did not respond to requests for an interview.

BioArray gives Immucor new technology: molecular diagnostics of pre-transfusion blood. "We believe this acquisition places Immucor on the leading edge of transfusion medicine," Gallup said on the call.

With the acquisition, Immucor got 100 issued or pending patents. BioArray will retain its name and remain in Warren, N.J.

Customers are loyal, says Lai: "Once they're entrenched, the switching cost is quite high."

One cloud on the horizon: Immucor is under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission over possible unfair competitive practices. The company says it is cooperating fully with regulators.

CRL药品检测外包堪称一流

11/20 02:58 EST

Charles River Laboratories(代號:CRL) 可谓是药物外包行业的弄潮儿,但是本月公司受到信贷危机影响,不得不削减运营开支。公司主要向生物科技和大型药物开发商提供潜伏期药物检测,近期已经大幅削减了08年业绩预测。公司表示,这是由于客户减少了在药物检测方面的开支,并将着重点转移至后期研究阶段。公司主要在药物开发的初期阶段进行一系列毒理学检测。在病人身上检测之前,有些药物往往需要进行毒性检测。这家位于马萨诸塞州的公司就是专门从事毒理学研究的专业机构,包括吸入性毒理学。公司还培育并出售能够用于试验的动物,诸如试验鼠等等。

公司CEO James Foster表示:“我们远比同行的竞争对手更早就在开发此行业的客户了。因此,我们拥有极为广阔的客户基础和药物制造商关系。”药品检测外包就是公司一大摇钱树的业务,分析师表示:“科学家总是很保守的,他们当然要求很高的检测费用,因此由技术娴熟的技术师是我们一大优势。”公司以及其竞争对手 Covance(代號:CVD)占据了毒理学检测外包市场的30%以上。近几年来,对于毒理学药品检测的市场需求越来越大,主要由于美国食品药品监督局(FDA)对于各大制药公司采取了更加严格的药物检测要求。

但是目前一些大型制药公司正在削减潜伏期药品检测程序,包括毒理学检测。小型的生物科技公司也受累于资金困难等问题,濒临破产。分析师表示:“作为一家制药公司,你宁愿削减一些早期药品检测程序,也不愿由于成本过高导致公司破产,即便这样做只是短期效益。”大型制药商受到行业竞争和专利技术期限的压力,必须增加生产在线的药物品种,因此很有可能对初期药物检测进行裁剪。但是就长期来看,分析师表示:“如果大型制药商解雇员工,降低内部基础建设,并通过增加药品种类提高营收,他们就得进行检测外包,这是必不可少的。”因此,这对于Charles River来说是一件好事。

同时,多数分析师都认为:“制药商需要的是不同的业务模式,因为单一的药物制造已经不能够满足企业整体运营,并且已经不再管用了。” Charles River就是专注于此的。公司能够提供高效、高速、成本低廉的服务这是许多大型制药商难以做到的。分析师表示未来大型制药商的发展趋势就是检测外包。 Charles River公司约有一半以上的营收来自潜伏期药物毒性检测,其余来自动物实验业务。公司能够提供足够的空间,以便同时进行多家大型制药商的药物检测,分析师表示,这是极为重要的优势,同时,多数的小型生物技术公司都没有足够的试验空间,因此必须依靠检测外包。

分析师预期到09年,毒性检测外包业务市场将增长35%至27亿美元,在未来五年内将翻双倍。在未来10到14年内将翻三倍。分析师表示,过去此种检测往往要客户等待六个月之久,但是现在已经高效快捷多了。Charles River已经在马萨诸塞州拓展了实验室数量,并将于今年十月在中国上海开设实验室。公司计划在07至09年将实验网点拓展至100万,雇员达到 8,800人次。

公司三季度每股收益上涨了10%至0.76美元,营收上涨了9%至3.422亿美元。公司对08年全年业绩发布了预警,预测将达到2.83 -2.87美元,共识为2.84美元。公司约有30%以上的利润来自培育并出售试验动物,约有14-16%是来自毒性检测业务。分析师表示:“公司在运营模式方面堪称一流。”公司成立于1947年,是目前市场上执牛耳的巨头。三季度动物试验业务营收上涨了14%至1.657亿美元,公司对此项业务的增长潜力极为看好,认为甚至将超越毒性检测业务。但是分析师表示,随着消费开支持续下降,如果09年的试验开支费用继续下降,公司的多数客户将在价格上斤斤计较了。

目前公司股价为23美元,12月内销售额达到13.5亿美元,五年内每股收益涨幅预计为11% 。

Barron's:Kaydon资产充裕受益匪浅

11/21 00:38 EST

Barron's报导,Kaydon(代號:KDN) 作为行业特殊轴承的专业开发商,目前面临严峻的市场局面,但是目前公司的资产负债表说明这仍然是一支极具竞争力和发展潜力的股票,尤其是在当前不稳定的经济环境下。Kaydon在新型能源市场处于执牛耳地位,这将有助于公司维持长期的业务稳固,并获益匪浅。公司主要生产有保障的大直径轴承,以便保障风力涡轮的平稳运转。公司市场的轴承能够将摩擦减小至最低程度,07年此项业务占到了60%以上的营收。

今年至今公司股价已经下降了60%,降幅远比同行要大。公司目前无债务状况,加上充足现金量,每股达到8美元,使得公司红利率达到3% 。Sentinel Investments分析师Matt McGeary拥有公司股票,表示这支股票在未来18-24个月中将达到40-45美元。目前公司股价为25美元。尽管分析师预期股价将再次下降,但是公司充足的现金量将成为其稳固业绩的中流砥柱。投资者预期公司每股收益将达到0.60美元。分析师表示公司的风力涡轮业务09年的销售额将达到1.4亿美元,约占总营收的25% 。

Friday, November 7, 2008

Barron's:WLT雨后见彩虹为期不远

11/7

Barron's报导,Walter Industries(代號:WLT) 的股价在近期受到全球钢铁市场需求下滑和钢铁煤炭价格下降的影响出现跳水,在近六个月中下降了60%至目前的30美元,与行业的其它公司情况相一致。但是 Barron's认为,公司股价下降将为那些对公司长期业绩前景看好的投资者提供一个绝佳的买入时机,尤其是那些坚信基础设施将迎来长期激增的繁荣局面的投资者。

在近两天中,公司股价下跌了20%,仅次于世界第一大钢铁制造商Arcelor Mittal(代號:MT),MT 已经将四季度全球钢铁生产量削减了35% 。WLT告诉投资者全球钢铁需求将出现疲软,“但是这并不会影响到我们的煤炭市场需求。” Symphony Asset Mgmt顾问Praveen Gottipalli表示WLT有能力经历近期的考验,并终将迎来雨后彩虹。到09年六月为止,公司的煤炭产量都将保持稳定,每吨价格为300美元。

Avondale Partners分析师Dan Mannes预计明年公司股价将达到77美元。分析师预计09年中期的钢铁煤炭价格将达到200美元。“如果这个数字准确,Walter Industries在目前来看将是非常物美价廉的一支股票。” Walter Industries还拥有抵押信贷和房地产板块,并打算在09年将金融业务进行剥离。剩下的单一煤炭业务将成为公司的杀手锏和王牌。Dahlman Rose分析师Daniel Scott预计公司股价将达到80-100美元,涨幅为100% 。

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Poll Results Spur Infrastructure

Voters approved billions in state capital projects, which could boost engineering and construction companies.

VOTERS APPROVED BILLIONS of dollars in state bond issues backing major proposed infrastructure projects and programs across the U.S. as well as other initiatives, which we expect will have positive long-term implications for select companies in our coverage universe.

Although the timing of construction on these projects is not likely to begin for several months or years, and is also contingent on demand for new issues in the municipal bond markets, we believe several companies within our coverage universe could ultimately benefit. We highlight some of the major approved propositions and potential beneficiaries within the Engineering & Construction and Construction Products groups below.

California voters approved the issuance of $9.95 billion in bonds related to construction of the first phase of a high-speed passenger rail system between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Construction is not expected to begin until at least 2011. We believe potential beneficiaries could include Granite Construction (ticker: GVA), URS (URS), Perini (PCR) and others. Additionally, Powell Industries (POWL) is a leading supplier of traction substations and switchgear for transit applications.

California voters approved Proposition 3, authorizing the state to sell $980 million in bonds for capital improvement projects at various California children's hospitals. We believe potential beneficiaries could include Perini and Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC).

Voters approved a plan for the state of Hawaii to move forward with a mass transit system on Oahu, the largest planned public works project in the state's history. Recent estimates put the cost of the 20-mile system in excess of $4.3 billion, exclusive of proposed extensions. We expect Ameron International (AMN) will benefit as construction of the rail line as well as ancillary structures such as garages, stations and parking lots is anticipated to consume significant aggregates, concrete and other heavy building materials on the islands. Construction is not anticipated until at least late 2009.

Pennsylvania voters approved a $400 million bond issue for improvements to water infrastructure and waterways across the state. The referendum includes a variety of potential projects, including sewage overflow mitigation, new construction and upgrades of water and wastewater treatment facilities and sewer and drinking water line repair and replacement.

Potential beneficiaries could include Mueller Water Products (MWA) and Northwest Pipe (NWPX) for delivery of pipe to replace existing lines and use in treatment facilities, and Layne Christensen (LAYN) for construction of new treatment facilities and upgrades. We anticipate projects will be spread over several years.

Voters in Alaska approved a $315 million transportation-related bond supporting bridge and road construction projects throughout the state. We believe Granite is well positioned to benefit from new transportation projects in Alaska.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Barron's:Covidien将大有可为

11/5

Barron's报导,Covidien(代號:COV)从深陷丑闻漩涡的母公司Tyco International(代號:TYC) 脱离之后,成为世界最大的一次性药物产品生产商,以及行业领先的外科手术仪器生产商,年营收达到100亿美元。近年来公司主要致力于促进收益率提高,以及 生产线的发展。但是受到近期金融市场动荡影响,公司股价自九月的高点下降了22% 。但是很多投资者仍然看好这支股票,认为公司的基础面较强劲。随着公司股价跌至新低,这给投资者提供了买入的最佳时机。Alger Health Sciences Fund经理人表示Roseanne Ott:“公司管理层正在不遗余力地实施运营战略,未来12个月内公司将迎来业绩大涨的佳期。Covidien是一支大有可为的股票。”公司拥有充足先尽 量,销售额和收益率也在不断增长,年营收的增长将指日可待。

Barron's:FWLT守得云开见月明

11/4

Barron's报导,尽管拥有订单充足和良好的资产负债表的优势,Foster Wheeler(代號:FWLT) 股价仍然遭到了重击,在过去12个月内已经下降了62%,主要受累于全球经济衰退影响能源市场需求,依赖于石油、天然气和化学工业客户的消费状况。今年 10月28日,公司股价降至52周新低19.35美元。但是如果投资者能够慧眼识英才,敢于在这支股票上下长期的赌注,并经受住长期的经济动荡考 验,Foster Wheeler仍然能够在新兴市场获得新项目的需求,并在发达经济体国家中取得大发展。

当然,Foster Wheeler在面对当前的经济衰退和消费低迷也不是百毒不侵的,加上信贷危机不断侵蚀全球经济,短期内会对公司业绩有一定的负面影响。但是公司良好的定 位可以令其经受住市场动荡的考验。目前公司拥有13亿美元的流动资金,约为每股8.8美元。今年9月12日,公司通过了7.5亿美元股票回购计划,这也将 大大提振公司股价。

MDAS医疗软件大获青睐

11/5


医疗条件较差的医院之中,往往四家就有一家是亏损的。目前经济危机更是令这些机构的现状雪上加霜。随着人们不断取消或延迟保健计划,医疗行业环境每况愈 下。很多希望省钱的病人开始选择加入其它医疗机构。政府的医疗保险制度缺口越来越大,决策者对于医院的账单进行详细审查,以便排除任何额外支付项目。 MedAssets(代號:MDAS)作为医院的拥护者,主要是维护医院的财务状况,公司拥有一系列的软件和顾问解决方案,以便促进医院的营收上涨并降低开支。MedAssets的CFO Neil Hunn表示:“我们是以毒攻毒。”

MedAssets的主要客户都是医院机构,截止今年二季度的客户量已经达到3,300家。约有800家是在今年六月收购了Accuro Healthcare Solutions之后获得的,此项收购斥资3.57亿美元。公司目前的装配包括,能够将错综复杂的付账记录转变为条理清晰的已付账和未付账记录。这主要 是针对医院客户提供的,“能够细致到每五分钱的款项。”分析师Sean Wieland表示:“保健计划对于拒绝索赔和索赔额度过低案例来说可谓臭名昭著,如果能够帮助医院尽快获得款项,将有助于医院资产负债表恢复良性循环。 ”

公司的软件系统能够降低20%以上的应收款项,因此降低客户5000万美元的20%应收款项意味着将为医院带来1000万美元收入。分析师 Constantine Davides表示:“历史上,公司客户流失量仅占很小一部分。” Constantine Davides表示公司自有一套有效的促进营收、降息开支消耗的管理办法。“公司的管理办法能够有效处理低效率而复杂的保健市场环境。” MedAssets还向医院机构出售反间谍工具,旨在找出医疗保险制度和商业保险商缴付不足的漏洞,以便医院有充分理由进行偿还诉求。

为帮助医院应对医疗保险制度审查,公司近期推出了名为Recovery Audit Contractor(RAC)的产品和服务。RAC能够使医院对整个压力保险制度审查进行控制和危机处理,包括防范和上诉活动。其它工具还包括病患服务 中的付款和信息活动,以便医院能够及时有效地收集病人的申请信息。分析师表示:“医院可能并不知道某位病人有1,000美元可扣除费用,即这笔钱是可以为 病人省下的,但是公司的软件工具和服务将帮助医院和病人有效管理付款过程。”

在成本控制方面,公司的打包采购计划能够帮助医院以最有利于病人的价格提供医疗服务。但是创建这种业务并不是一件容易的事情,尤其是在公司今年来不断进行 收购战略,自公司1999年成立以来已经收购了16家行业企业。公司于2006年收购了四家公司没包括业务情报和决策支持软件供货商。207年公司收购了 MD-X和XactiMed,分别是提供医疗保健折扣拒绝的解决方案和服务供货商,以及处理诉讼、汇款和拒绝活动软件供货商。收购Accuro使得公司的 营收循环管理业务大大加强了,并能够提供越区销售服务。这是公司上市以来最大规模的收购交易,成为行业中最先进的营收管理服务供货商。Accuro本身救 市一系列收购组合的产物,包括以网络为基础的CodeCorrect。

在团体收购方面,公司已经名列前茅,分析师表示:“在当今的行业背景下,没有哪家公司能够像MedAssets那样定位准确并拥有广阔发展前景的了。在很 多方面,公司提供的产品和服务已经成为医院运营预算中不可或缺的一笔开支。”近期由摩根斯坦利发布的调查显示,09年保健IT产品供货商的业务前景非常 好。MedAssets预测08年营收将达到2.7-2.76亿美元,同比为1.89亿美元。三四季度来自Accuro的销售额达到3700万美元。二季 度营收上涨了42.3%至6120万美元。包括收购以及其它一次性成本在内,预计每股收益将上涨0.07美元至0.11美元.公司预测三季度的业绩也将高 于预期。ThomsonReuters分析师预期08年每股收益将上涨18%至0.52美元,09年将上涨35% 。

Monday, November 3, 2008

CZZ

Brazil Cosan says stronger dollar raising revenues

Thu Oct 9, 2008 10:13am EDT

SAO PAULO, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The real's sharp fall against the U.S. dollar is expected to boost revenue in the current fiscal year for Cosan SA, one of Brazil's top sugar and ethanol producing groups, the company said on Thursday.

Cosan (CSAN3.SA: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said total net operating revenue should climb by more than 30 percent in the May/April fiscal year over the previous year. It had previously expected a revenue rise of between 15 and 30 percent.

But it maintained its expectation of a 30 percent rise in its net loss from last year's 48 million reais due to the impact of the real's fall on the principal of the dollar-denominated long-term debt.

"In general, the new guidance underlines the strong impact of the exchange rate on Cosan's results, especially its export revenue," the company said in a statement.

For exporters, a stronger dollar means more gains when sales abroad are converted to the local currency.

Triggered by the global financial crisis, the local currency, real BRBY, has dropped nearly 30 percent against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of August.

Cosan raised its estimate for the year-end exchange rate to more than 30 percent over April 30, 2008, compared with a previously expected rise of up to 5 percent.

Sugar prices in reais are now forecast to rise more than 30 percent over last season, compared with 5 to 15 percent expected previously. Ethanol prices could increase 15 to 30 percent, said Cosan, which expected them to rise not more than 15 percent.

Most of Cosan's sugar production is sold abroad, while most ethanol sales are in the domestic market.

Cosan also reduced its guidance on operating capital expenditure -- investment in long-term assets -- to an increase of 5 to 15 percent. Previously, it expected its capex to rise 15 to 30 percent.

"(We are) reprioritizing our investments in order to preserve the group's planned liquidity level in light of the global financial crisis," it said in the statement.

The company has announced plans to build greenfield units, expand existing plants, and invest in cogeneration and logistics. It aims to more than double crushing capacity to up to 100 million tonnes from 40 million tonnes now. (Reporting by Inae Riveras; editing by Jim Marshall)


报道指印度一食糖产区产量下跌一半

《道琼斯》报道,预计2008/09年度,期间印度食糖产区之一Andhra Pradesh邦的食糖产量将减半,从上季的145万吨下降至75万吨。今年该邦的甘蔗种植面积大幅缩减,由去年的50万公顷下降至30万公顷。部分政府 官员表示,由于甘蔗产量减少,估计蔗价将会上涨12%,虽然印度全国的甘蔗最低收购价定为811.80卢比/吨,但估计该邦的蔗价将会达到 1100-1500卢比/吨的水平。


截至10月29日当周巴西各港口待送糖货只减少9艘

巴西船运机构Williams周四称,截至10月29日当周,在巴西各港口等待在未来 数天和数周内发送糖的货船数减少9艘至43艘。该资料包括在海上停泊处等待的船只以及将在11月19日前停靠码头的船只。该机构称,本周的货船被指定发运 993210吨糖,上周为130万吨。从桑托斯港发运的糖数量最多,为721670吨,上周为101万吨。

Thursday, October 30, 2008

我国发电主机首次打入俄罗斯市场

5月23日,从北国边陲黑龙江省传出喜讯,哈电集团哈动股份公司代表我国与黑龙江天狼星电站设备有限公司正式签订了俄罗斯特罗依茨克三大主机供货合同,合同总价约人民币14.5亿元。
俄罗斯历来是全球发电设备制造企业的竞争要地之一,我国发电设备制造企业始终把市场目标之一锁定在俄罗斯。发电设备项目能否在俄罗斯立足,对我国发电设备制造业开拓国际市场具有积极意义。
特罗依茨克2×660兆瓦超临界项目是俄罗斯统一电力系统公司麾下发电二公司投资建设的电站,总承包方是俄罗斯石英—秋明封闭式股份公司(简称石英公司)。
在哈电集团哈动股份公司的统一组织、协调下,哈尔滨三大动力厂和天狼星公司从2007年4月针对该项目进行了技术交流,俄方高层领导多次来访并派遣专家考察。2007年11月,哈动股份公司曲大庄总经理带队赴俄罗斯签署了(俄中电力、天狼星、哈动股份公司)三方开拓俄罗斯市场合作协议;2007年12月签署了(俄中电力、天狼星、哈动股份、东北设计院、黑龙江火电三公司)五方合作协议,标志着开发俄罗斯电站设备市场的“联合体”正式成立,特罗依茨克项目就是“联合体”成员间的第一个合作项目。
特罗依茨克2×660兆瓦超临界项目,总承包方为石英公司,动力岛项目采用招标方式。针对特洛依茨克动力岛项目投标事宜,哈尔滨三大动力厂与天狼星、东北设计院以“联合体”形式共同参与投标。
哈动股份公司张海权副总经理带领哈尔滨三大动力厂有关人员与天狼星公司、俄中电力等单位就特罗依茨克项目进行数次洽谈,于2008年2月29日联合体中标。2008年4月中旬,天狼星公司与石英公司签订动力岛项目设备供货合同。
该项目供货合同的签订,标志着哈电集团代表我国主机设备产品首次打入俄罗斯电力市场,为哈电集团乃至我国发电设备制造企业进一步开拓国际市场奠定了坚实的基础。

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

注射用重组人干扰素α2a(酵母)

SFDA批件2008-10-27

[生产厂商]:上海万兴生物制药有限公司
[通用名称]:注射用重组人干扰素α2a
[是否OTC]:
[药物剂型]:注射剂
[产品规格]:

100万IU/1ml/支

[功效主治]:1. 病毒性疾病:伴有HBV-DNA、DNA多聚酶阳性或HBeAg阳性等病毒复制标志的成年慢性活动性乙型肝炎病人、伴有HCV抗体阳性和谷丙转氨酶 (ALT)增高,但不伴有肝功能代偿失调(Child分类A)的成年急慢性丙型肝炎病人、尖锐湿疣、带状疱疹、小儿病毒性肺炎及上呼吸道感染、慢性宫颈 炎、丁型肝炎等。2.肿瘤:毛状细胞白血病、多发性骨髓瘤、非何杰金氏淋巴瘤、慢性白血病以及卡波济氏肉瘤、肾癌、喉乳头状瘤、黑色素瘤、蕈样肉芽肿、膀 胱癌、基底细胞癌等。
[用法用量]:

1 毛 状细胞白血病:起始剂量:每日300万国际单位,皮下或肌内注射,16到24周。如耐受性差,则应将每日剂量减少到150万国际单位,或将用药次数改为每 周3次,也可以同时减少剂量和用药次数。 维持剂量:每次300万国际单位,每周3次皮下或肌内注射。如耐受性差,则将每日剂量减少到150万国际单位,每周3次。 疗程:应用该药大约6个月以后,再由医生决定是否对疗效良好的病人继续用药或是对疗效不佳的病人终止用药。注:对血小板减少症病人(血小板计数少于 50×109/L)或有出血危险的病人,建议以皮下注射重组人干扰素α2a。
2 多发性骨髓瘤:应用重组人干扰素α2a300万国际单位,每周3次皮下或肌内注射。根据不同病人的耐受性,可将剂量逐周增加至最大耐收量(900万国际单位)每周3次。除病情迅速发展或耐受性极差外,这一剂量可持续使用。
3 低度恶性非何杰金氏淋巴瘤:重组人干扰素α2a作为化疗的辅助治疗(伴随或不伴随放疗),可以延长低度恶性非何杰金氏淋巴瘤病人的无病生存期和无恶化 生存期。推荐剂量:在常规化疗结束后(伴随或不伴随放疗),每周3次,每次300万国际单位,皮下注射重组人干扰素α2a,至少维持治疗12周。重组人干 扰素α2a的治疗应该在病人从化椃帕品从χ幸换指戳⒓纯迹话闶奔湮瘲放疗后4~6周。重组人干扰素α2a治疗也可伴随常规的化疗方案(如结合环磷酰 胺、强的松、长春新碱和阿霉素)一起进行。以28天为一周期。在第22~26天,皮下或肌内注射重组人干扰素α2a600万国际单位/m2体表面积。重组 人干扰素α2a结合化疗进行治疗时,重组人干扰素α2a的使用应该和化疗同时进行。
4 慢性髓性白血病:重组人干扰素α2a适用于慢性髓性白血病病人。60%处于慢性期的慢性髓性白血病病人,不管是否接受其他治疗,接受重组人干扰素 α2a治疗后可达到血液学缓解。三分之二这类病人在开始接受治疗最近18个月后取得完全的血液学缓解。与细胞毒性化疗不同,重组人干扰素α2a能持续维持 细胞遗传学缓解达40个月以上。推荐剂量:建议对年满18岁或以上的病人作重组人干扰素α2a皮下或肌内注射8~12周,推荐逐渐增加剂量的方案如下: 第1~3天每日300万国际单位 第4~6天每日600万国际单位 第7~84天每日900万国际单位疗程:病人必须接受治疗至少8周,要取得更好的疗效至少需要治疗12周,然后,再由医生决定是否对疗效良好的病人继续用 药或对血液学参数未见任何改善者终止用药。疗效良好的病人应继续用药,直至取得完全的血液学缓解,或者一直用药最多到18个月。所有达到完全血液学缓解的 病人,均应继续以每日900万国际单位(最佳剂量)或以900万国际单位每周3次(最低剂量)进行治疗,以使其在尽可能短的时间内取得细胞遗传学缓解。尽 管有见到开始治疗2年后达到细胞遗传学缓解者,但尚未定出重组人干扰素α2a治疗慢性髓性白血病的最佳疗程。
5 慢性活动性乙型肝炎:重组人干扰素α2a适合治疗伴有HBV?/FONT>DNA、HbeAg及DNA多聚酶阳性等病毒复制标志的成年慢性活动 性乙型肝炎推荐剂量:尚未定出治疗慢性活动性乙型肝炎的最佳治疗方案。通常以500万国际单位每周3次,皮下注射,共用6个月。如用药一个月后病毒复制标 志或HbeAg无下降,则可逐渐加大剂量并可进一步将剂量调整至病人能够耐受的水平,如治疗3~4个月后没有改善,则应考虑停止治疗。儿童:据报道对患有 慢性乙型肝炎的儿童以每平方米体表面积1000万国际单位进行治疗是安全的,但其治疗效果尚未定论。 警告:重组人干扰素α2a对慢性乙型肝炎合并感染人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)的病人疗效尚无定论。
6 急慢性丙型肝炎:重组人干扰素α2a适合治疗HCV抗体阳性,谷丙转氨酶(ALT)增高和不伴肝脏失代偿成年慢性丙型肝炎病人。但没有临床和组织学方 面长期好转的依据。起始剂量:以重组人干扰素α2a300~500万国际单位,每周3次,皮下或肌内注射3个月作为诱导治疗。维持剂量:血清谷丙转氨酶正 常的病人需要再以重组人干扰素α2a300万国际单位,每周3次,注射3个月作为完全缓解的巩固治疗。病人血清谷丙转氨酶不正常者必须停止以重组人干扰素 α2a治疗。注:大多数接受了足够治疗后复发的病人会在治疗结束后4个月内复发。
7 尖锐湿疣:以重组人干扰素α2a100~300万国际单位,每周3次,皮下或肌内注射,共1至2个月。或于患处基底部隔日注射100万国际单位,连续3周。

[不良反应]:

使 用本品后少数病人可有发烧、寒战、乏力、肌痛、厌食等反应。不良反应多在注射48小时后消失。其他可能出现的不良反应有头痛、关节痛、食欲不振、恶心等, 个别病人可能出现粒性白细胞减少、血小板减少等,停药后可恢复。如出现不能忍受的严重不良反应时,应减少剂量或停药,并给予必要的对症治疗。

ALXN新药研发获利丰厚

10/27 01:54 EST

想知道研发新药的成本昂不昂贵,问问Alexion PharmaceuticalsALXN#就知道了。这是一家位于美国康涅狄格州的药物研发公司,15年来已经斥资7.29亿美元进行不同规模的药物研发,主要研究治疗罕见或潜在的致命性血液紊乱疾病药物。去年,公司研发的新药Soliris获批,可以进入美国和欧洲市场进行销售。公司的销售额增长是显而易见的,Soliris作为公司的核心获批产品,公司于周四发布了Soliris连续七个季度营收100%以上的增长率,这是公司连续二个季度利润大涨的丰收季节了。公司因此提高了08年全年的业绩预测,显示对全年业绩增长的信心。Cowen&Co.Soliris分析师Rachel Mc-Minn表示:“对于公司来说,接下来要做的就是稳定运营和高效管理,除此以外别无他法。”

作为治疗阵发性睡眠性血红蛋白尿症(又名PNH)的药物,Soliris是目前唯一获得正式批准的药物。PNH是一种极为罕见的、导致患者全身虚弱并攻击自身血红蛋白细胞的紊乱疾病。患者将出现复发性疼痛、疲劳、肾脏病变以及其它问题。国家健康局数据显示此种疾病的患病率是100万名之中有1到5名。但是 Alexion公司已经未雨绸缪,提前为此做好准备。公司表示目前此种疾病的患病率与日俱增,尤其是在欧洲和美国地区,患者数量已经达到8K到10K名。医生通过监测能够及早发现疾病,在超过15个国家已经有患者开始使用Soliris治疗自己的疾病。

Soliris能够降低血块的数量,维护肾脏正常功能,并回复机体健康。FDA已经在07年3月批准了Soliris上市。欧洲相关监管机构也在今年六月批准此项药物。公司目前站在努力向澳大利亚和日本市场进军。公司总裁兼COO表示:“已经有越来越多国家的内科医生开始使用我们的药物为患者提供治疗。” 公司预计今年在荷兰和英国市场的营收将大涨,因为这些国家的保险商和国家保荐机构已经同意为此种药物支付费用。一年的药物共供应成本为389K。但是公司表示此种药物还能够适用于其它疾病的治疗,包括哮喘病等。公司以及Soliris已经获得了2008年最佳生物科技Galen Prize奖项。

大赛主席Gerald Weissmann表示:“这对于公司的潜在影响是巨大的,事实上公司在药物开发方面的实力无与伦比。”但是此种药物在其它疾病治疗方面的效果目前尚不可知。公司表示将于12月份在American Society of Hematology上发布有关的资料。公司还将开发新药,分析师表示:“很显然,公司的长期发展战略是形成有效地研发管道。”公司成立于1992年,是由耶鲁大学研究院组建的。公司于1996年上市,500名主要员工均来自美国和欧洲。

公司三季度Soliris的销售额达到7120万美元,上个季度货运营收达到530万美元。本季度公司发布的营收为7650万美元。一年前的销售额仅为 2210万美元。周四发布的季报中,每股收益达到0.29美元,同比为亏损0.28美元。公司还提高了08年下半年业绩预测,预测销售额将上涨至 2.56-2.58亿美元。Thomson Reuters分析师预期公司今年的每股收益将上涨0.08美元,09年每股收益将达到0.8美元。

Investor's Business Daily
Biotech Firm's Sales Explode On Drug To Treat Rare Blood Disorder
Friday October 24, 6:07 pm ET
Kevin Harlin Developing new drugs is expensive. Just ask Alexion Pharmaceuticals.

The Cheshire, Conn., drug discovery company has spent a cumulative $729 million over 15 years of research, working mostly on a drug to treat a rare and potentially fatal blood disorder.

Last year, the company finally won critical regulatory approvals to market its drug, Soliris, in the U.S. and Western Europe.

Sales have taken off.

Thanks to Soliris, Alexion's (NasdaqGM:ALXN - News) sole approved product, the company on Thursday reported its seventh consecutive quarter of triple-digit revenue growth. It was the company's second straight profitable quarter.

Alexion increased its revenue guidance and now expects to show its first annual profit in 2008.

"They're doing nothing but executing solidly here," said Rachel McMinn, an analyst at Cowen & Co.

Soliris, the trade name for the drug eculizumab, is the only substance approved to treat paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria, or PNH.

PNH is a rare, debilitating disease that causes the body to attack its own red blood cells. Patients can suffer recurring pain, fatigue, kidney disease and other problems. The National Institutes of Health thinks that the disease afflicts only one to five people out of a million.

But the company thinks there are 8,000 to 10,000 people in the U.S. and Western Europe with the condition.

The company says awareness of the disease is growing. As that happens, doctors are able to correctly diagnose it more often. There are paying customers in more than 15 countries.

The drug can reduce instances of blood clots, protect kidney function and restore quality of life, the company says.

FDA Nod

Soliris won Food and Drug Administration approvals in March 2007. European regulators cleared it that June. Alexion is now working on approvals in Australia and hopes to begin clinical trials in Japan.

"Simply put, more physicians in more countries are treating more new PNH patients with Soliris," David Keiser, president and chief operating officer, told analysts on a conference call.

Revenue is expected to increase in places such as the Netherlands and Great Britain, where insurers and national health services have agreed to pay for the drug. A year's supply costs about $389,000.

But the company says the drug also shows promise for treating an array of other maladies, including asthma, lupis and age-related macular degeneration.

It's that promise that won Alexion and Soliris the prestigious Galen Prize for best biotechnology product of 2008, according to Gerald Weissmann, the chairman of the award committee.

"It's got enormous impact and potential, and the fact that they've developed this drug is remarkable," said Weissmann, director of the Biotechnology Study Center at New York University's School of Medicine.

But just how useful the drug will be on other conditions isn't clear yet.

The company says it will present some early data at the American Society of Hematology annual meeting in December.

And it's not clear what Alexion will come up with to follow Soliris. It's working on an antibody that could fight such cancers as chronic lymphocytic leukemia, multiple myeloma and ovarian cancer, for instance.

But success there is far from certain, and a long way off.

"Clearly, longer-term, you'd like to see a pipeline developed," McMinn said.

The company was founded in 1992 by Yale University researchers. It went public in 1996. It employs about 500 people, mostly in the U.S. and Europe.

The company sold $71.2 million worth of Soliris in the third quarter and recognized $5.3 million in revenue from shipments made in previous quarters.

That $76.5 million was all the revenue Alexion reported that quarter. A year earlier, it had just $21.8 million in Soliris sales. Some contract revenue brought total income that quarter to $22.1 million.

Earnings Report

Thursday, Alexion reported earnings per share of 29 cents, ex-items, compared with a per-share loss of 28 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Alexion also upped its guidance for the rest of the year. It now expects Soliris sales to be between $256 million and $258 million. It had previously called for sales of $235 million to $245 million.

The higher guidance factors in growing patient numbers and a weaker euro.

The company reported a loss of $1.27 per share last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters think it could show an 8-cents-per-share profit this year and an 80-cents-per-share profit in 2009.

In February, the company settled a patent dispute over the technology behind Soliris, paying $10 million to the Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation.

NUVA神经回避系统越小越吃香

10/24 02:23 EST

在经济停滞阶段,投资者往往会慎重考虑高价资本设备的开支,这当然会影响到医疗设备类股的涨跌。作为医疗设备制造商的Nu Vasive(代號:NUVA) 就是拴在这条线上的蚂蚱。尽管这很不公平,因为公司多数销售额来自小型伤口清理工具和器官嫁接,主要适用于侧面和后部入侵伤口最小化的融合手术,多数是由专业医生采用的。分析师表示经济低迷对于背部手术的影响并不大,饱受疼痛侵扰的病人是不会因经济低迷而终止治疗过程的。分析师表示:“当病人决定接受脊椎治疗之时,他们所忍受的疼痛超越了经济衰退带来的影响。”

Nu Vasive上个季度销售额同比增长了50-65%,在本周三收盘后,公司发布了三季度营收同比上涨了73.7%至6690万美元。公司提高08年业绩预测,预测营收将达到2.45-2.47亿美元。尽管销售额并没有取得20%以上的增长,利润则另当别论。由于公司不断对新产品、新技术和外科手术教育进行大量投资,因此仍将出现斥资。三季度公司每股亏损0.21美元,研发投资以及其他成本达到1670万美元。包括研发收费以及一次性收费在内促进公司每股收益增长0.04美元,分析师预计为0.01美元。

但是,公司预测08年每股收益将因此增长0.05-0.07美元,这将是公司首次获得盈利。Thomson Reuters分析师预测09年每股收益为0.46美元。尽管公司算不上是高资本器械生产商,NuVasive的绕开神经手术导航软件系统可谓是价值不菲。这项导航系统能够最大程度上完善脊柱融合手术,能够令神经受损最小化,因此为医院和医疗单位的所青睐。这项技术大大促进了伤口清理产品的销售额增长。每一个疗程能创造1,300至1,700美元的收益。

外科手术设备平均销售额达到500-900美元,植入式生物制剂的每个疗程的利润就更高了,约为11K美元。传奇般的侧面疗程包括在患者侧身开一个小口,而非在背部开一个大口。患因此恢复期往往比普通患者要短。随着越来越多医生开始就此进行培训,公司的营收将出现大幅增长。目前已经有2,000名外科医生就侧面手术接收了培训。

公司目前已经推出的300多件新产品也在促进销售额增长,以及营收的增长。公司本周三宣布将扩展产品组合,并进行相应市场推广,预计将推动明年的营收上涨 40% 。推动新产品线扩展的一个关键因素就是公司今年七月进行的收购战略,收购了生物制剂生产商Osteocel,后者主要生产适用于脊柱手术中的骨髓嫁接仪器。公司表示Osteocel将为09年的尖端生产线创造2800万美元营收。本季度Osteocel已经为公司创造了440万美元营收。公司预测随着生物制剂部门不断扩展,未来几年内的年营收将达到1亿美元。公司在本月引进了新一代神经回避系统——NeuroVision M5,也将创造巨大的营收。

NeuroVision M5作为最新的系统,能够使医生在手术过程中进一步对脊柱和脖颈部位的神经进行监测,最大程度上避免损伤神经。分析师表示:“NeuroVision M5的运用已经被荒废多年了,因此亟待更新换代。”公司的CEO Alex Lukianov表示,这项新系统将被赋予更新的理念和特点。

而在价值70亿美元的世界脊柱医疗市场中,竞争已经愈演愈烈,Medtronic(代號:MDT)的Sofamor Danek产品就占据50%以上市场份额的巨头。另一个行业巨头包括Johnson & Johnson (代號:JNJ)的DePuy,以及Stryker(代號:SYK)。分析师表示NuVasive占据6%的美国市场份额,几乎所有的销售都是针对美国市场的。但是公司将在未来几年中进行市场扩展,包括欧洲和亚洲。三季度公司在一项产品诉讼中赔偿了600K美元,分析师预计四季度的诉讼开支将达到400万美元,09年将达到500万美元。

Investor's Business Daily
When In Pain, Back Surgery Doesn't Wait For Economic Recovery
Thursday October 23, 6:05 pm ET
Marilyn Alva In a stalled economy, investors might be rightfully concerned about weak spending for high-ticket capital gear. That's certainly been a concern for followers of medical-equipment stocks.

Some might lump medical-device maker NuVasive in that boat. That would be unfair.

Most of NuVasive's (NasdaqGS:NUVA - News) sales are from dozens of small disposal tools and grafts used to perform a minimally invasive lateral back-fusion surgery it developed with specialists.

Analysts say the economy doesn't much matter when it comes to back surgeries. People in pain don't want to put off procedures, and reimbursements don't stop when the economy does.

"By the time people make a decision to have this spine procedure, they are already in such pain it's not something they can delay for economics," said Joanne Wuensch, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets.

Big Sales Growth

NuVasive's year-over-year sales have grown 50% to 65% the last eight quarters.

On Wednesday after the market close, the firm reported that third-quarter revenue soared 73.7% from the earlier year to $66.9 million.

And it upped its 2008 revenue guidance to $245 million to $247 million from $238 million to $240 million earlier.

Though sales have been growing in double digits, profits are another story. Investments in new products, surgeon education, new sales reps and technology have kept the young company in the red.

NuVasive reported a 21-cent loss in the third quarter, citing $16.7 million in research and development costs and other expenses. Excluding the research charge and other one-time costs, NuVasive earned 4 cents a share. Analysts expected a profit of 1 cent a share.

However, it forecast full-year profit of 5 cents to 7 cents a share. It would be the first year of profits. Analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters estimate earnings of 46 cents in 2009.

Though it doesn't consider itself a big-ticket capital equipment company, NuVasive does make a costly software-driven nerve avoidance navigation system that enables surgeons to perform its unique spinal-fusion surgery.

The company gives those units away to hospitals to encourage them to adopt the minimally invasive procedure, since it helps spur sales for its disposable products.

Each procedure generates $1,300 to $1,700 from disposable products, the company says. Surgical instruments add $500 to $900.

The implants and biologics that are needed to complete each procedure generate even more -- almost $11,000 per procedure.

The novel lateral procedure involves making small incisions in a patient's side rather than larger ones in the back or front. Recovery time is shorter since surgeons don't have to cut into much muscle or bone, and costs are lower.

As more physicians are trained to perform the operation, NuVasive stands to gain added revenue. Almost 2,000 surgeons have been trained to perform the lateral surgery.

New products and a growing sales force -- now numbering 300 -- also help drive revenue growth, analysts say. The firm stated on Wednesday that an expanding product portfolio and geographic expansion will lead to revenue growth of nearly 40% next year.

One key new product line comes from the July acquisition of the biologics product line Osteocel -- bone-marrow grafts used in spine-fusion surgery. NuVasive said Osteocel would add $28 million to 2009's top line. Osteocel kicked in $4.4 million in the third quarter.

NuVasive expects its expanded biologics division to generate $100 million in revenue annually in the next several years.

NuVasive's introduction this month of a next-generation nerve-avoidance system -- NeuroVision M5 -- also will help generate new revenue, analysts say. The new system allows surgeons to navigate further up the spine to the neck area so that they can perform minimally invasive cervical procedures as well.

The M5 "is a big deal," said analyst Jose Haresco of Brean Murray Carret. "The NeuroVision has already been out a few years, and it needed an upgrade."

Chief Executive Alex Lukianov says the new system will be able to handle additional features as they are developed. "This moves us another three years ahead of our competitors," he said in a phone interview.

Competition in the $7 billion worldwide spine market is intense, dominated by Medtronic's (NYSE:MDT - News) Sofamor Danek, which has about 50% market share. Other larger players include Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ - News) DePuy unit, Synthes and Stryker (NYSE:SYK - News).

Half-Price Sale

Lukianov says the Osteocel grafts give his firm an edge over medical-equipment giant Medtronic because they sell for about half the price of Medtronic's version.

Haresco wrote in a client note that smaller, more specialized players such as NuVasive and Kyphon have been taking market share from their bigger rivals.

Lukianov says NuVasive holds 6% market share in the U.S., up from about 4% last year. Almost all of NuVasive's sales are in the U.S., but Lukianov says the company plans to expand next year in key markets in Europe and Asia.

Meanwhile, some analysts are concerned over legal expenses from a patent infringement lawsuit brought by Medtronic on some of NuVasive's products.

In the third quarter, NuVasive spent $600,000 in legal expenses to defend itself and officials say they expect to spend $1 million in the fourth quarter and $4 million to $5 million in 2009.

LMIA收购狂潮如火如荼

一次成功的收购战略往往能够令一家濒临破产的公司起死回生,LMI Aerospace(代號:LMIA)就是一例。最为一家金属片生产商,LMI Aerospace主要为航空和航天工业提供零部件,公司近期推出了一系列的收购增长战略。从上世纪90年代起,飞机生产商Boeing(代號:BA) 就拥有LMI Aerospace很大一部分的业务,直到2001年公司上市之后,公司业务扩展至军工领域,引发新一轮抢购狂潮。LMI Aerospace成立于58年以前,近十年来积极开展业务多元化战略和一系列大规模的收购交易。公司的喷气式飞机业务目前已经涉足商业航空器板块,后者已经成为公司最大的销售额创造者。

LMI Aerospace自去年六月以来就通过进行最大规模的收购交易不断扩展业务能力。目前公司已经斥资6500万美元收购San Diego-based D3 Technologies,后者是一家一流的设计和技术维护公司。分析师表示:“对于San Diego-based D3 Technologies的收购战略是公司的一项大举措。” D3 Technologies现在已经将公司业务扩展至整个技术维护板块,提供一整套包括建筑、系统以及工具设计服务,项目管理支持,物流以及航空舰队维护服务等在内。在此项收购之前,公司仅染指机翼或驾驶舱门窗领域的业务,但是并不包括设计和制造。分析师表示:“目前,对于D3 Technologies的收购已经使得我们能够涉足航空器的食品链供应缓解。”同时此项收购交易还使得公司能够更多的零部件设计,包括整个机身的零部件制造。

当然,LMI Aerospace并不满足于此,公司还积极地寻找下一个猎物,目前市场中有成千上万的金属片生产商,但是只有LMI Aerospace能够傲视群雄。公司能够弯曲、延展、碾压各种各样的材料,比如铝合金、不锈钢,以及使用于飞机装备的钛合金产品,几乎涵盖了航空器的各个部位,包括机翼、机身、内部构造、齿轮以及其它零部件。此项业务赢得了BA和General Dynamics(代號:GD)的大量订单,包括民用飞机和私人飞机在内。

Investor's Business Daily
Metal Bender Moves Up The Aerospace Food Chain With Acquisition
Tuesday October 21, 5:40 pm ET
Brad Kelly An acquisition can do wonders for a company. Just ask LMI Aerospace. The sheet-metal bender, which makes components for the aerospace industry, designed a growth strategy focused on acquisitions.

Plane maker Boeing (NYSE:BA - News) accounted for a large chunk of LMI's (NasdaqGS:LMIA - News) business in the 1990s before it went on a buying spree in 2001 that expanded the St. Charles, Mo., company into military products and regional jets.

Established 58 years ago, LMI has spent the better part of this decade diversifying its business through various tuck-in acquisitions. The company's corporate-jet business now edges commercial aircraft as its biggest sales generator.

Key Acquisition

It continued expanding capabilities last June by making its most significant acquisition to date. LMI shelled out $65 million in cash to buy San Diego-based D3 Technologies, a premier design and engineering services firm.

"The D3 acquisition filled a strategic hole in LMI's business," said Alex Hamilton, a Jesup & Lamont analyst. "They've done a good job diversifying their operations."

D3 Technologies now comprises LMI's entire engineering services segment, which provides a suite of services such as structural, systems and tool designs, program management support, logistics and fleet maintainability.

Before the acquisition, LMI would get an order to build wing skins or cockpit window frames, but not design them. The D3 acquisition moves the supplier up the food chain, says Tyler Hojo, a Sidoti & Co. analyst.

"Now, with D3 in its fold, LMI is well positioned as a turnkey aerospace systems provider," Hojo said. "(The acquisition) also enables the supplier to bid on bigger projects, such as manufacturing a plane's entire fuselage."

While LMI currently looks for potential acquisition targets -- there are hundreds of mom-and-pop sheet-metal benders available -- it continues to execute on what it does best.

LMI bends, stretches, draws and stamps a myriad of materials, such as aluminum alloys, stainless steel and titanium to outfit aircraft makers with wing skins, fuselage parts, body structures and other interior parts, gears and components.

The manufacturer is busy filling orders for Boeing's passenger planes as well as private jets made by Gulfstream, a division of General Dynamics (NYSE:GD - News). It also supplies metal for Black Hawk helicopters made by Sikorsky, a unit of United Technologies (NYSE:UTX - News).

These projects helped LMI turn in its fourth straight quarter of double-digit sales growth in the April-June period. Revenue soared 91% to $64.9 million. The company expects 2009 sales of $289 million to $304 million. Analysts see revenue of $294.97 million.

Sales at its aerostructures segment rose 23% to $41.6 million, while its engineering services division, consisting entirely of D3 Technologies, recorded $24 million. That was driven in large part by program support for commercial aircraft, in particular Boeing's line of planes.

LMI's military business increased 41% to $11.7 million, due to higher production rates and new awards on the Black Hawk, the company said. Corporate business jets accounted for $14.1 million, up 24% from a year ago, while commercial aircraft sales hit $12.4 million.

Second-quarter earnings jumped 73% to 45 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected 39 cents.

Rising commodities and energy costs are not as much a concern to LMI as they would be to other manufacturers. That's because when it bids for a contract, the input costs are already factored in and the cost is passed through to the customer, Hamilton says.

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq continue to fuel LMI's military business. The Black Hawk carries the lion's share of the load, and the wear and tear is quite high. The company also expects ongoing demand for commercial jets, despite the 45-day strike at Boeing and financial turmoil.

"The Boeing 767 winglet programs and increasing production rates and market share on several Black Hawk models will drive our revenue growth in 2009," CEO Ron Saks said in a post-earnings statement. "These programs are expected to add a minimum of $25 million to $30 million of revenue in 2009."

While LMI will never be taken for a giant in the aerospace industry, its client list includes some of the biggest names in the aerospace industry. But even that might not stave off the problems that have plagued Wall Street.

The credit crunch continues to bite down on the economy, and Hojo expects cancellation rates for commercial aircraft to reach 20% or 30% as loans for new planes become tough to get.

"In the short term, LMI has its work cut out for it over the next couple of years, given its backlog, and the advent of outsourcing by a lot of its customers will help as well," Hojo said.

LMI's total backlog at the end of 2007 was $160.9 million, up 15% from the end of 2006. Roughly $126 million is expected to be delivered in 12 months, creating good visibility, Hojo says.

Next Acquisition

As the company patrols for potential buyout targets, it will keep a few things in mind, such as acquiring a manufacturer with high-speed machining capability. It may want to make larger components on the scale of building the fuselage, which is the body of the plane, Hamilton says.

There is also a shift to a new kind of metal that requires a change in its capabilities. The next generation of commercial aircraft, including the Airbus A380 and Boeing's 787, are using more and more composite material instead of sheet metal.

As energy costs squeeze airlines, lightweight composite materials will help reduce the amount of fuel used.

"It is clear that a secular shift is occurring in the industry right now," Hamilton said. "LMI will keep all these changing factors in mind as it scours the industry for more acquisitions."



公司还为Sikorsky制造的Black Hawk直升飞机提供金属零部件产品,后者是United Technologies(代號:UTX) 旗下子公司。这些如雪片飞来的订单使得公司四季度销售额增长率达到20%以上。四季度营收飙升了91%至6490万美元。公司预计09年销售额将达到 2.89-3.04亿美元,分析师预计09年营收为2.9497亿美元。公司飞机结构板块的销售额上涨了23%至4160万美元。而技术维护部门销售额达到2400万美元。这是受到公司的商用飞机,尤其是来自BA订单的极大推动。

公司的军用飞机业务也上涨了41%至1170万美元,主要由于较高的生产率和Black Hawk带来的有业绩。商用喷气式飞机销售额上涨了24%至1410万美元,商用飞机销售额创1240万美元。二季度每股收益上涨了73%至0.45美元,分析师预计为0.39美元。不断上涨的商品和原油价格并不对公司构成多大影响,公司主要依靠的是制造业务。在确立订单的时候,成本往往被转嫁到消费者身上。

美国军方发动的针对阿富汗和伊拉克的战争使得公司获得大量军事业务。而Black Hawk就占到这部分业务中很大一部份,这种直升飞机的磨损率极高。公司还将迎来商用喷气式飞机市场需求的大涨,尤其是在BA和其它航空公司罢工斗争不断的当前。分析师表示:“上述利好因素将大大提振公司09年的业绩,预计营收将增加至少2500-3000万美元。”“就短期来看,公司已经进行了裁员和扩大的订单量的战略,同时合同业务外包也不失为一种降低成本的有效措施。”

公司截至07年底总订单量达到1.609亿美元,同比上涨了15% 。约有1.26亿美元订单能够持续12个月之久。新一轮的收购战略也在如火如荼地展开,公司正在考虑收购一家拥有高速加工能力的制造商。总而言之,分析师认为:“公司将秉承变革的理念,通过不断的收购战略实现业务多元化目标。”

Cash America典当连锁如虎添翼

10/21 02:22 EST


随着天气变冷,美国人开始涌入南部温暖宜人的度假胜地,那么他们钱包里的钞票够用吗?Cash America International(代號:CSH) 已经替您预先考虑到了这一点。就在9月29日,Cash America答应斥资9000万美元收购Prenda Facil约为80%的股权,后者是一家在墨西哥16个州拥有100多个度典当营业网点的公司。此举成为Cash America跨越Rio Grande向这家位于德州的公司展开战略合作的关键,因为这家德州企业在全美拥有超过500家典当行,如虎添翼之后,Cash America将能够与First Cash Financial(代號:FCFS)在墨西哥市场上一争高下。

Jefferies分析师Richard Shane表示,墨西哥市场的确是令人垂涎三尺的宝地,尤其是墨西哥一向有典当的传统。“墨西哥客户能够准确使用典当业务,有了他们的加入,便获得了充足的短期现金来源,将能够弥补贷款亏损。”“墨西哥市场的信贷业务是蒸蒸日上。”分析师表示墨西哥人喜欢将珠宝首饰作为间接典当品,而美国人往往将家电进行典当。不同在于,珠宝在交易的过程中不会贬值,但是家电随着更新换代频率加快将成为一堆垃圾,因此珠宝拥有极大的转售期权价值。同时,黄金利润也在不断膨胀,由06年的30.4%升至今年二季度的33% 。

而在墨西哥地区,Cash America可谓是行业霸主了。公司拥有全美3-5%的典当行。但是典当行业极为零散,即便资深人士都不清楚到底有多少典当行。Cash America的典当行数量和规模远远超过两家行业竞争对手,包括First Cash和Ezcorp(代號:EZPW),因此公司最大的优势就在于规模的全面性和板块的集中性。尽管这三大巨头都运营典当行以及日贷款业务,但是Cash America有61%的营收都来自典当行,远高于两家同行。随着经济衰退和信贷危机日益加深,典当行的业务开始兴盛起来。“经济下滑的一开始,典当品数量将增加,因为人们需要典当财务获得资金。”“而购买典当品的需求也将攀升,因为人们对打折的二手货很感兴趣。”

分析师强调,公司的日贷款业务受累于信贷危机。二季度此版块的营收仅上涨7%,而典当行版板块营收上涨了16%。但是网上日贷款业务开始兴起,已经增长了 56% 。分析师表示,当失业率上升,日贷款业务将减少。另一个问题就是政治,有的政治家抨击贷款业务就是在掠夺财务,高利贷使得借贷者永远处于负债累累的境地。一些南部和东北部的州已经明令禁止贷款业务,另一些则在贷款利率上下功夫,诸如俄亥俄州。因此公司不得不关闭在俄亥俄州的139家门店,地区占有率缩小了 15% 。

但是最终决定性法案将在今年由全民公决后出台,因此仅凭俄亥俄州的一家之言是不成规矩的。分析师表示:“日贷款业务方面的法令类似于典当行在美国市场最初形成的阶段,这是自然演化的结果。”公司面临的另一项挑战就是气候因素,公司在休斯顿和德州的加尔维斯敦拥有71出典当行,但是受到飓风艾克的影响都关闭了。分析师认为这将使得公司三季度每股收益下降0.03-0.06美元。

总体上分析师认为公司利润增长将放缓。自05年以来每个季度的每股收益至少增长了20%。今年二季度的每股收益飙升了56%至0.67美元。但是 Thomson Reuters分析师认为面年每股收益增长率将降至5%左右。因此,预计明年的每股收益仅增长11%至3.45美元。

Investor's Business Daily
Pawnshop Chain Expands South Of Border As Economy Heads South
Monday October 20, 5:52 pm ET
Amy Reeves As the weather gets cooler, many Americans plan on heading south of the border.

Should they find themselves short of funds, Cash America International will be ready for them.

On Sept. 29, Cash America (NYSE:CSH - News) agreed to pay $90 million for an 80% stake in Prenda Facil, a pawnshop chain with 100 locations in 16 Mexican states.

It will be the first step across the Rio Grande for the Texas firm, which already owns more than 500 pawnshops in the U.S.

It will join rival Texas company First Cash Financial (NasdaqGS:FCFS - News), which has been in Mexico for some time. Jefferies analyst Richard Shane says Mexico is an attractive market because the cultural approach to pawning is traditional.

"Customers in Mexico tend to use the product appropriately, in that they come in, use it as a short-term source of cash and then redeem the loan," said Shane, whose company has done business with Cash America. "Credit there tends to be very good."

Shane says Mexicans are likelier to use jewelry as collateral, whereas Americans more often use items like home electronics. Jewelry doesn't depreciate in value the way electronics do, and also has more resale options.

Also, the profit margin on gold has been rising, from 30.4% in 2006 to 33% in the second quarter of this year, according to RBC Capital Markets.

Back in the States, Cash America is the industry leader. It owns 3% to 5% of all U.S. pawnshops.

The industry is so fragmented, even insiders are vague about how many total pawnshops exist.

Cash America's store count is bigger than that of its two main rivals, First Cash and Ezcorp (NasdaqGS:EZPW - News), put together.

The advantage comes from overall size and Cash America's concentration in the sector. All three firms run both pawnshops and payday-loan outfits. But Cash America derives more of its revenue -- 61% -- from pawnshops than its rivals do.

As the economic crisis looms and other credit vehicles collapse, pawnshops look set to thrive.

"At the outset of an economic downturn, pawned goods tend to rise in quantity as customers utilize the service to free up cash from their possessions," RBC analyst Jason Arnold wrote in his Sept. 11 initiation report. "Demand for merchandise held for disposition by pawn operators also tends to rise, as consumer demand rises for goods that can be purchased at a discount to new goods prices."

Analysts like Cash America's pawnshop emphasis because the payday-loan side is under more pressure. In the second quarter, revenue in this segment rose only 7% compared with the pawn division's 16% growth. The nascent online payday-loan business was more dynamic, however, with a 56% increase.

Analysts say that overall economic conditions do hurt the payday-loan business. When unemployment rises, there are fewer paydays to borrow toward.

Another problem is political. Some argue that this type of lending is usually predatory, with borrowers getting permanently in hock to pay off their high-interest loans.

Some Northeastern and Southern states ban such lending outright. A few others put a ceiling on interest rates. One such state is Ohio, which in May capped the rate. Ohio lets payday loan businesses take a fee of $1.08 per $100 of principal.

Cash America has been charging an average of $17.50.

The rate is so uneconomical that Cash America might have to close its 139 Ohio stores, shrinking its location count by 15%.

However, the industry managed to qualify a referendum reversing the law on this year's Ohio ballot. So analysts will have to wait until Nov. 4 to make definite future projections.

Shane is philosophical.

"What's going on in terms of payday lending regulation is similar to when the pawn product was first established in the U.S.," he said. "It's a natural evolution."

Another challenge Cash America faces is the weather. The firm has 71 locations in Houston and Galveston, Texas, the island city that Hurricane Ike closed down for two weeks in September.

Analysts will have to await the official third-quarter results Thursday to learn the extent of the damage. But they agree that it will hurt.

In a Sept. 22 note, Sterne Agee analyst Henry Coffey forecast a hit of 3 cents to 6 cents a share.

"We do not know the exact profitability of the region, and it would be wrong to assume that all of a company's stores are completely inactive," Coffey's note cautioned. "Our EPS estimates are not definitive, just educated best guesses."

Cash America did not respond to requests for comment.

Overall, analysts do expect a slowdown in the firm's profit growth. Results have been rock steady for years, with earnings rising at least 20% every quarter since 2005. In the second quarter, profit jumped 56% to 67 cents a share.

But analysts polled by Thomson Reuters see growth dwindling into the single digits over the next year, even going negative in the first quarter of 2009. For that reason, profit is expected to grow only 11% next year to $3.45 per share.

Still, the fact that Agee and Arnold launched coverage on the company in just the last two months shows that they like the industry's fundamentals.

"Demand for pawn lending and payday lending remains robust," said Shane. "I would expect solid third-quarter results, though the impact of the hurricane probably reduces the likelihood of a significant upside."

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

老道买磷

氮、磷、钾三种化肥中,目前钾最缺,这是POT的强项,但从长远来看,氮和钾几乎无限可采,只要需要世界可建更多的氮肥厂,钾肥厂,那时氮肥钾肥价格就会下降,但磷则非常有限,建不出更多的磷肥厂。其它东西你可以不用,但人总不能不吃饭,而没有磷肥,粮食产量会大幅下降,磷资源比水和石油更宝贵。而MOS是世界最大磷矿,所以老道前面买入的MOS是无论如何不会卖的。磷对人类社会的生存发展如此重要,所以引起了世界各国政府的高度重视。我国国土资源部的相关统计表明,我国磷储量位居世界第三,仅次于摩洛哥和 美国。但实际上,现有27亿吨折标磷矿储量仅够维持我国再使用70年左右的时间,其中还包含绝大部分(90%以上)非富磷矿(P2O5)(30%)。如果 仅以富磷矿磷储量(P2O5)(30%)计算,我国富磷矿储量(占总磷矿储量的8.4%)仅能维持我国使用10-15年。  

更让人忧心的是,科学研究发现,磷和太阳能以及氮等元素的生物化学循环完全不同,在生物圈中,它是单向流动的,而且难以再生植物生长所需的各种 主要营养元素如氧、碳、氢、氮和磷等,它们在生物圈的生物地质化学循环中运动,形成了水(H2O)、碳(C)、氮(N)、磷(P)四大物质、元素的循环。   

“磷元素却是个例外!”北京建筑工程学院可持续环境生物技术研发中心的郝晓地教授指出,在生物圈中,水(H2O)、碳(C)、氮(N)可形成物 质或元素真正的循环,中间虽有形式、形态上的变化,但可利用量基本保持不变。而磷(P)在大千世界中的循环路径完全不同,它的消耗将造成严重的流失,因而 是一种不可更新、难以替代的资源,甚至比水和石油更加宝贵。  

据了解,在自然界中,磷主要以天然磷酸盐岩石、鸟粪层岩石等形式存在。磷在人工开采使用后或经天然侵蚀后,其归宿大多是通过陆地河流流入大海, 最终沉积在深海的沉积层中。沉入深海中的磷绝大部分需经相当漫长上千万甚至亿万年的地质活动后才有可能被重新提升到陆地上来,只有很少一部分通过浅海鱼类 或海鸟被带回陆地。   

因此,相对于我们面临的水危机和石油危机来说,磷危机更加急迫。许多专家表示,水可以通过有效治理和管理,有望逐渐恢复水量和水质;石油资源也 完全有可能以其他能源取而代之。而潜在的磷危机的后果更加可怕,它不仅影响我国经济的持续、高速发展,而且将对人类的生存和我国社会可持续发展构成严重威胁。   

Monday, October 13, 2008

1013

SymbolTradeChangeVolumeRelated InfoAvg Vol (3m)Name
USO67.78Up 1.28Up 1.92%6,050,924Chart, Message, Profile, more...14,079,000
United States Oil Fund, LP
UNG29.73Up 0.25Up 0.85%3,220,758Chart, Message, Profile, more...8,209,550
United States Natural Gas Fund,
No such ticker symbol -. Try Symbol Lookup
ECA43.73Up 5.08Up 13.14%5,799,809Chart, Message, Profile, more...5,573,660
EnCana Corp
DVN72.88Up 12.88Up 21.47%9,529,823Chart, Message, Profile, more...7,495,440
Devon Energy Corp. (New)
APA81.04Up 14.24Up 21.32%6,901,648Chart, Message, Profile, more...5,891,000
Apache Corp.
CHK20.20Up 3.68Up 22.28%63,904,017Chart, Message, Profile, more...24,612,900
Chesapeake Energy Corp.
EOG71.75Up 12.16Up 20.41%5,704,922Chart, Message, Profile, more...4,601,070
EOG Resources, Inc.
CHK20.20Up 3.68Up 22.28%63,904,017Chart, Message, Profile, more...24,612,900
Chesapeake Energy Corp.
RRC32.21Up 5.35Up 19.92%5,773,326Chart, Message, Profile, more...4,386,450
Range Resources Corp
KWK11.02Up 1.97Up 21.77%6,877,834Chart, Message, Profile, more...3,657,710
Quicksilver Resources, Inc.
SWN28.44Up 7.63Up 36.67%10,965,793Chart, Message, Profile, more...7,439,000
Southwestern Energy Company
FST28.85Up 5.27Up 22.35%3,216,230Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,954,180
Forest Oil Corp.
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GDP28.27Up 7.30Up 34.81%1,931,654Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,848,500
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (Holdi
HK13.60Up 3.96Up 41.08%12,356,485Chart, Message, Profile, more...10,185,700
Petrohawk Energy Corp
GMXR31.14Up 7.89Up 33.94%694,683Chart, Message, Profile, more...649,950
GMX RESOURCES INC
CRK36.10Up 7.80Up 27.56%1,264,937Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,562,120
Comstock Resources, Inc.
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ATN18.73Up 3.36Up 21.86%226,015Chart, Message, Profile, more...334,350
Atlas Energy Resources LLC
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CLB82.88Up 12.70Up 18.10%546,100Chart, Message, Profile, more...372,135
Core Laboratories N.V. (Netherl
GTLS18.92Up 1.87Up 10.97%956,773Chart, Message, Profile, more...495,012
CHART INDUSTRIES, IN
NOV29.14Up 5.72Up 24.42%20,555,970Chart, Message, Profile, more...9,399,320
National Oilwell Varco Inc
CAM30.78Up 5.54Up 21.95%6,094,216Chart, Message, Profile, more...4,628,900
Cameron International Corp
FTI39.95Up 5.32Up 15.36%4,312,568Chart, Message, Profile, more...2,400,540
FMC Technologies, Inc.
TTES25.68Up 6.71Up 35.37%276,834Chart, Message, Profile, more...233,517
T-3 ENERGY SVCS
NCL9.1132Up 1.3432Up 17.29%21,933Chart, Message, Profile, more...18,931.8
Nuveen Insured California Premi
HP30.50Up 6.39Up 26.50%3,531,010Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,980,770
Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
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FLS67.90Up 11.58Up 20.56%2,195,704Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,375,500
Flowserve Corp.
RBN25.69Up 3.51Up 15.83%602,630Chart, Message, Profile, more...651,791
Robbins & Myers, Inc.
CFX9.91Up 1.46Up 17.28%647,742Chart, Message, Profile, more...392,711
COLFAX CORPORATION
SNHY24.13Up 2.71Up 12.65%215,086Chart, Message, Profile, more...179,427
SUN HYDRAULICS COR
TISI31.72Up 2.66Up 9.15%311,105Chart, Message, Profile, more...199,361
TEAM INC
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PBR34.00Up 7.90Up 30.27%39,460,282Chart, Message, Profile, more...23,809,000
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.
HES59.22Up 6.30Up 11.90%9,563,360Chart, Message, Profile, more...5,466,130
Hess Corp
DVN72.88Up 12.88Up 21.47%9,529,823Chart, Message, Profile, more...7,495,440
Devon Energy Corp. (New)
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SSL29.85Up 4.85Up 19.40%1,415,721Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,007,790
SASOL LTD ADR
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CLR25.90Up 5.84Up 29.11%2,087,951Chart, Message, Profile, more...2,254,450
CONTINENTAL RESRCES
HES59.22Up 6.30Up 11.90%9,563,360Chart, Message, Profile, more...5,466,130
Hess Corp
EAC25.59Up 5.33Up 26.31%1,406,694Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,279,880
Encore Acquisition Co.
WLL45.45Up 8.95Up 24.52%1,392,781Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,271,120
Whiting Petroleum Corp (New)
SM25.15Up 4.43Up 21.38%1,047,306Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,341,800
St. Mary Land & Exploration Co.
EOG71.75Up 12.16Up 20.41%5,704,922Chart, Message, Profile, more...4,601,070
EOG Resources, Inc.
BEXP6.82Up 1.33Up 24.23%1,192,902Chart, Message, Profile, more...1,176,940
BRIGHAM EXPLORATN
NOG4.67Up 0.37Up 8.60%276,020Chart, Message, Profile, more...410,459
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS
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WES12.88Up 0.97Up 8.14%191,694Chart, Message, Profile, more...171,080
WESTERN GAS PARTNERS
WHX14.04Up 1.29Up 10.12%109,280Chart, Message, more...128,536
WHITING USA TRUST I
PSE14.95Up 3.03Up 25.42%99,821Chart, Message, Profile, more...6,917,880
PIONEER STHWST ENERG
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HEV7.65Up 0.16Up 2.14%265,306Chart, Message, Profile, more...535,858
ENER1 INC
MXWL9.81Up 0.10Up 1.03%234,220Chart, Message, Profile, more...140,292
MAXWELL TECHS INC
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OKE30.13Up 6.96Up 30.04%2,017,311Chart, Message, Profile, more...927,145
Oneok Inc. (New)
EP9.00Up 1.78Up 24.65%18,293,426Chart, Message, Profile, more...11,538,700
El Paso Corp.
COP56.24Up 8.01Up 16.61%29,467,654Chart, Message, Profile, more...14,994,900
ConocoPhillips
COG26.88Up 5.57Up 26.14%3,393,077Chart, Message, Profile, more...3,135,440
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp.
APA81.04Up 14.24Up 21.32%6,901,648Chart, Message, Profile, more...5,891,000
Apache Corp.
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TS29.30Up 5.20Up 21.58%3,849,011Chart, Message, Profile, more...3,253,290
Tenaris SA
WH5.20Up 0.50Up 10.64%147,508Chart, Message, Profile, more...125,777
WSP HOLDINGS LTD ADS
SMS15.30Up 1.80Up 13.33%300,264Chart, Message, Profile, more...415,461
Sims Group Ltd