10/21 02:22 EST
随着天气变冷，美国人开始涌入南部温暖宜人的度假胜地，那么他们钱包里的钞票够用吗？Cash America International(代號:CSH) 已经替您预先考虑到了这一点。就在9月29日，Cash America答应斥资9000万美元收购Prenda Facil约为80%的股权，后者是一家在墨西哥16个州拥有100多个度典当营业网点的公司。此举成为Cash America跨越Rio Grande向这家位于德州的公司展开战略合作的关键，因为这家德州企业在全美拥有超过500家典当行，如虎添翼之后，Cash America将能够与First Cash Financial(代號:FCFS)在墨西哥市场上一争高下。
Jefferies分析师Richard Shane表示，墨西哥市场的确是令人垂涎三尺的宝地，尤其是墨西哥一向有典当的传统。“墨西哥客户能够准确使用典当业务，有了他们的加入，便获得了充足的短期现金来源，将能够弥补贷款亏损。”“墨西哥市场的信贷业务是蒸蒸日上。”分析师表示墨西哥人喜欢将珠宝首饰作为间接典当品，而美国人往往将家电进行典当。不同在于，珠宝在交易的过程中不会贬值，但是家电随着更新换代频率加快将成为一堆垃圾，因此珠宝拥有极大的转售期权价值。同时，黄金利润也在不断膨胀，由06年的30.4%升至今年二季度的33% 。
而在墨西哥地区，Cash America可谓是行业霸主了。公司拥有全美3-5%的典当行。但是典当行业极为零散，即便资深人士都不清楚到底有多少典当行。Cash America的典当行数量和规模远远超过两家行业竞争对手，包括First Cash和Ezcorp(代號:EZPW)，因此公司最大的优势就在于规模的全面性和板块的集中性。尽管这三大巨头都运营典当行以及日贷款业务，但是Cash America有61%的营收都来自典当行，远高于两家同行。随着经济衰退和信贷危机日益加深，典当行的业务开始兴盛起来。“经济下滑的一开始，典当品数量将增加，因为人们需要典当财务获得资金。”“而购买典当品的需求也将攀升，因为人们对打折的二手货很感兴趣。”
分析师强调，公司的日贷款业务受累于信贷危机。二季度此版块的营收仅上涨7%，而典当行版板块营收上涨了16%。但是网上日贷款业务开始兴起，已经增长了 56% 。分析师表示，当失业率上升，日贷款业务将减少。另一个问题就是政治，有的政治家抨击贷款业务就是在掠夺财务，高利贷使得借贷者永远处于负债累累的境地。一些南部和东北部的州已经明令禁止贷款业务，另一些则在贷款利率上下功夫，诸如俄亥俄州。因此公司不得不关闭在俄亥俄州的139家门店，地区占有率缩小了 15% 。
但是最终决定性法案将在今年由全民公决后出台，因此仅凭俄亥俄州的一家之言是不成规矩的。分析师表示：“日贷款业务方面的法令类似于典当行在美国市场最初形成的阶段，这是自然演化的结果。”公司面临的另一项挑战就是气候因素，公司在休斯顿和德州的加尔维斯敦拥有71出典当行，但是受到飓风艾克的影响都关闭了。分析师认为这将使得公司三季度每股收益下降0.03-0.06美元。
总体上分析师认为公司利润增长将放缓。自05年以来每个季度的每股收益至少增长了20%。今年二季度的每股收益飙升了56%至0.67美元。但是 Thomson Reuters分析师认为面年每股收益增长率将降至5%左右。因此，预计明年的每股收益仅增长11%至3.45美元。
Investor's Business Daily
Pawnshop Chain Expands South Of Border As Economy Heads South
Monday October 20, 5:52 pm ET
Amy Reeves As the weather gets cooler, many Americans plan on heading south of the border.
Should they find themselves short of funds, Cash America International will be ready for them.
On Sept. 29, Cash America (NYSE:CSH - News) agreed to pay $90 million for an 80% stake in Prenda Facil, a pawnshop chain with 100 locations in 16 Mexican states.
It will be the first step across the Rio Grande for the Texas firm, which already owns more than 500 pawnshops in the U.S.
It will join rival Texas company First Cash Financial (NasdaqGS:FCFS - News), which has been in Mexico for some time. Jefferies analyst Richard Shane says Mexico is an attractive market because the cultural approach to pawning is traditional.
"Customers in Mexico tend to use the product appropriately, in that they come in, use it as a short-term source of cash and then redeem the loan," said Shane, whose company has done business with Cash America. "Credit there tends to be very good."
Shane says Mexicans are likelier to use jewelry as collateral, whereas Americans more often use items like home electronics. Jewelry doesn't depreciate in value the way electronics do, and also has more resale options.
Also, the profit margin on gold has been rising, from 30.4% in 2006 to 33% in the second quarter of this year, according to RBC Capital Markets.
Back in the States, Cash America is the industry leader. It owns 3% to 5% of all U.S. pawnshops.
The industry is so fragmented, even insiders are vague about how many total pawnshops exist.
Cash America's store count is bigger than that of its two main rivals, First Cash and Ezcorp (NasdaqGS:EZPW - News), put together.
The advantage comes from overall size and Cash America's concentration in the sector. All three firms run both pawnshops and payday-loan outfits. But Cash America derives more of its revenue -- 61% -- from pawnshops than its rivals do.
As the economic crisis looms and other credit vehicles collapse, pawnshops look set to thrive.
"At the outset of an economic downturn, pawned goods tend to rise in quantity as customers utilize the service to free up cash from their possessions," RBC analyst Jason Arnold wrote in his Sept. 11 initiation report. "Demand for merchandise held for disposition by pawn operators also tends to rise, as consumer demand rises for goods that can be purchased at a discount to new goods prices."
Analysts like Cash America's pawnshop emphasis because the payday-loan side is under more pressure. In the second quarter, revenue in this segment rose only 7% compared with the pawn division's 16% growth. The nascent online payday-loan business was more dynamic, however, with a 56% increase.
Analysts say that overall economic conditions do hurt the payday-loan business. When unemployment rises, there are fewer paydays to borrow toward.
Another problem is political. Some argue that this type of lending is usually predatory, with borrowers getting permanently in hock to pay off their high-interest loans.
Some Northeastern and Southern states ban such lending outright. A few others put a ceiling on interest rates. One such state is Ohio, which in May capped the rate. Ohio lets payday loan businesses take a fee of $1.08 per $100 of principal.
Cash America has been charging an average of $17.50.
The rate is so uneconomical that Cash America might have to close its 139 Ohio stores, shrinking its location count by 15%.
However, the industry managed to qualify a referendum reversing the law on this year's Ohio ballot. So analysts will have to wait until Nov. 4 to make definite future projections.
Shane is philosophical.
"What's going on in terms of payday lending regulation is similar to when the pawn product was first established in the U.S.," he said. "It's a natural evolution."
Another challenge Cash America faces is the weather. The firm has 71 locations in Houston and Galveston, Texas, the island city that Hurricane Ike closed down for two weeks in September.
Analysts will have to await the official third-quarter results Thursday to learn the extent of the damage. But they agree that it will hurt.
In a Sept. 22 note, Sterne Agee analyst Henry Coffey forecast a hit of 3 cents to 6 cents a share.
"We do not know the exact profitability of the region, and it would be wrong to assume that all of a company's stores are completely inactive," Coffey's note cautioned. "Our EPS estimates are not definitive, just educated best guesses."
Cash America did not respond to requests for comment.
Overall, analysts do expect a slowdown in the firm's profit growth. Results have been rock steady for years, with earnings rising at least 20% every quarter since 2005. In the second quarter, profit jumped 56% to 67 cents a share.
But analysts polled by Thomson Reuters see growth dwindling into the single digits over the next year, even going negative in the first quarter of 2009. For that reason, profit is expected to grow only 11% next year to $3.45 per share.
Still, the fact that Agee and Arnold launched coverage on the company in just the last two months shows that they like the industry's fundamentals.
"Demand for pawn lending and payday lending remains robust," said Shane. "I would expect solid third-quarter results, though the impact of the hurricane probably reduces the likelihood of a significant upside."
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