中国钢企周一同意接受澳大利亚力拓(Rio Tinto)以创纪录的幅度上调其铁矿石价格，这使得本年度的铁矿石谈判距离结束又进了一步。
但目前仍不清楚，澳大利亚另一家大型铁矿石生产商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)是否认可类似的条款。尽管从纯经济学的角度来看，必和必拓应会予以认可。毕竟，今年铁矿石价格96.5%涨幅，已令去年9.5%的涨幅相形见绌。
必和必拓最近表示，此次涨价尚不够充分，并且施压推行一项激进的计划，从而改写每年数百万吨铁矿石的销售模式，并为将来与客户展开较为长期的谈判打下基础。
而钢铁企业则不愿支付高于力拓方案的价格。
同样，这些钢企也强烈反对必和必拓废除始自上世纪60年代的年度合约体系的计划。
韩国的钢铁巨头浦项制铁(Posco)昨日表示，与力拓的协议将于本周达成，该协议可能同样会有约96.5%的涨幅。
然而，与必和必拓之间的谈判则显得更为棘手。浦项制铁表示：“在我们的希望和他们的要求之间，仍存在着巨大的分歧。”
必和必拓正置身于对力拓公司的一场敌意收购战之中，必和必拓之所以不愿敲定协议条款，是因为该公司认为，客户购买澳大利亚铁矿石的价格应该高于巴西矿石，原因是澳大利亚距离中国更近，运费相对较低。
必和必拓认为，力拓商定的涨价80%至96.5%的方案，仍无法抹平运费的差距，尽管这高于巴西淡水河谷(Vale)获得的65%至71%的涨幅。
必和必拓首席执行官马利尤斯•科劳珀斯(Marius Kloppers)表示，竞争对手力拓的价格上涨仅为澳洲与巴西运费差价的10%。
德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的罗伯•克利福德(Rob Clifford)表示，根据力拓的协议，在当前的现货运费水平上，澳洲铁矿石每吨的售价要比巴西矿石低39美元。如果力拓商定的涨幅与淡水河谷一样，这一差距将会是每吨47美元。
克利福德表示：“我们相信，此次变化为问题的解决开启了一扇大门：未来数年的谈判价格会有着进一步的差异，以继续缩短这种差距。”
更为根本的问题在于：必和必拓想要终止当前的年度合约价格体系。
然而，尽管力拓急于获得运费上的溢价，但它仍在努力维护这一体系的实质内容：即全球矿业集团和钢企之间的年度价格谈判。
科劳珀斯想要废除这些谈判，并形成介于现货市场与传统的年度合约之间的一种混合型铁矿石销售体系，从而根据市场供应的松紧程度来自动修订价格。
他最近表示，必和必拓将“不会签署任何新的（传统的年度价格）合约。”
科劳珀斯补充道：“等这些合约在几年后到期，我们就会根据新的透明条款，来签署新的合约。”
Sunday, June 29, 2008
必和必拓的不满
再来说说风能: TKR vs KDN, WGOV vs AMSC
风能和太阳能不同,很多太阳能企业基本上是就以太阳能为主要业务.对很多与风能相关
的公司来说,风能业务只是他们众多业务中的一块.基本上来说,与风能相关的业务包括
风电涡轮机的制造,发电机的制造,电网接入技术,还有风塔的制造.
先来说说风电涡轮机:这里面必要部件包括齿轮箱,控制电路,轴承,叶片....大部分组件
国内都能生产,除了轴承和控制电路...
关于轴承,风电涡轮机对轴承的要求比较高.一般来说风力发电机主机寿命要求20年，轴
承安装的成本较大，因此要求偏航、变桨轴承寿命也要达到20年。国内的企业基本上没
有生产能力,所有轴承都需要进口.所以很长一段时间以来,国内的这种轴承长期供货不
足.世界上三大轴承厂家两家在欧洲,只有一家在美国,这就是TKR.但是美国风电轴承的
老大却是KDN,GE风电的轴承基本上由他供应.实际上TKR在风电轴承上也投入了很多,不
知道为什么他们当初输给了KDN.Anyway,TKR在国际市场上还是做的不错的.而且年初的
时候TKR和国内的湘电股份合资搞了一个专门生产风电轴承的厂.当然,KDN也说他们也在
全力拓展中国市场.还有一个观察,就是同样是生产轴承的厂家,TKR比KDN在国际上更有
名,规模更大,但是TKR的PE值是15.7,而KDN却达到了24.3.TKR在国际市场上的状况还是
非常不错的,所以我觉得也许这是一个买入TKR的好机会.
再来说说控制电路,现在我查到的主要是两家,wgov和amsc,amsc我上次已经介绍过了,wg
ov是cramer推荐的,最近是相当火热.wgov网上的资料相对不多,我现在能查到的就是他
和GE的关系比较铁.他在中国也有一个大客户.当然wgov和波音以及空中客车都有业务联
系.amsc在中国,印度的力量比较大.他的优势在于他能帮助客户进行涡轮机的设计.由于
国内企业的起点比较低,所以基本上所有企业一开始都是买的国际风能大厂的设计.但是
这些设计基本上都是过时的技术,谁都不会傻到把自己最新的技术卖给你. 所以在这点
上amsc比较受欢迎,通过帮助客户设计涡轮机,amsc就能独家提供控制电路,从而可以上
下其手大肆揩油,他现在国内的客户主要是华锐.东气和南车.另外amsc在电网接入技术
上也很有实力,按他自己的说法,用他的D-VAR技术的风场占据了世界上7%的风电发电量.
他还在和西屋公司研究超导风电发电机,如果成功,前景那是相当美妙...不过不知道是
不是泡泡.....不知道板上有没有人对超导技术比较在行?
关于叶片,好像大厂都在欧洲.但是有一个ZOLT值得关注,他是风电大厂们的碳纤维主要提
供商.另外一个是HXL,不过不是很熟.
剩下的就是那些风塔制造商了,因为一般的风塔都有几十米高,所以这也是个大买卖,主要
的厂家有TRN, FLR,这两个最近都接了大单子.还有一些其他的公司,比如MTZ,BWEN,好像
都是cramer推荐的.
最后要声明,我自己做股票以TA为主,从来不做很深的FA.我本人没有任何上面提到的股票
,发这个帖子纯粹是对替代能源很有兴趣.而且由于我本人专业跟这个无关,所以帖子里
面错误一定不少其中,权当抛砖引玉吧.希望大家在做任何投资决定之前,一定要做自己
的research.
Source: http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Stock/31292324_3.html
我来推荐一只风能股票吧: AMSC
理由:
1. 风能市场很大,热度不比太阳能差.国内2007年风能装机增长率150%左右.
http://www.cwea.org.cn/upload/20080324.pdf
美国能源部设定的目标是风能2030年占总发电量的20%, 这就意味着
Annual installations need to increase more than threefold.
2. amsc的主要业务是控制电路,输电线路和半导体控制器件.但AMSC自己不做发电
机,所以和GE&西门子没有直接竞争.
3.AMSC现在的业务很大一部分靠出售涡轮设计给国内企业,收取授权费.那些
企业用了amsc的设计以后,必须要买AMSC的输电线路和控制器件.amsc现在是国内风电机
控制电路的两大供应商之一,另一家是丹麦的.
3. AMSC的国内大客户是华锐风电,是大连重工的下属企业.在国产风电系统厂家排第二,
有谣言说跟华能关系不一般.排第三的东方电气也是他的客户.另外一个是株洲南车电机
公司, http://hn.rednet.cn/c/2006/07/03/929499.htm.他本来是给新疆金风(新疆金风是国内最大的风能企业,占国内市场装机容量的25%)做发电机的,现在也开始做整机.新疆金风的优势主要在于千瓦级的机组,而现在的热点在于兆瓦级的,在这方面,国内这些厂家起点差不多.
4. AMSC最近一个季度报告,第四季度收入涨了101%,年revenues也涨了100%以上.gross
margin 28.5%
Source: http://www.mitbbs.com/article/Stock/31288568_3.html
Jeffrey Gendell
Jeffrey Gendell
http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/948904.htm
*** TWRT.OB -> BWEN.OB
*** XIDE
? IESC: TX
? MCGL.OB -> MIGL.OB: IN
??? PATK: a supplier of a variety of products to the Recreational Vehicle and Manufactured Housing markets
>>>STEEL: X, CLF, AKS, GTI among his TOP 10
>>>Engineering: KBR, PWR, MDR, IESC, ESE(utility metering, Filtration, RF Shielding )
>>>Alt Energy: XIDE, TRN, FWLT, ENS, HXL, OTTR, TKR
Thursday, June 26, 2008
占风电市场 华电新能源谋划上市
占风电市场 华电新能源谋划上市
http://www.cnfol.com/
2008年06月26日 08:13 每日经济新闻
每经记者 喻春来 发自北京
中国华电集团旗下全资子公司中国华电集团新能源发展有限公司(以下简称华电新能源)计划两年之后单独上市，以筹集更多的资金抢占国内正在兴起的风力发电市场更多的份额。
而这个市场也正以惊人的速度增长。国家发改委官员昨日表示，今年底我国风力发电装机将突破1000万千瓦，再过两年有望突破2000万千瓦，中国不久将成为最大的风力发电国家。
华电新能源主攻风力发电
华电新能源公司总经理方正昨日在接受媒体采访时称，公司打算在2010年左右单独上市，目前还在做相关研究和论证。但他没有透露公司上市的地点和融资额度。
华电新能源注册资本2亿元，是去年由华电能源(600726，SH)与华电集团、华电国际电力股份有限公司、贵州乌江水电开发有限责任公司及华电工程(集团)有限公司共同出资组建。华电能源出资比例为12%，为第三大股东。
据该公司统计，公司现已在内蒙古、新疆、广东、江苏、浙江、湖北等14个省市区取得了资源，与当地政府签订了一批项目开发协议，累计占有风电资源量近1000万千瓦。
该公司计划未来投资在华北、西北和东北地区规划建设内蒙古辉腾锡勒-库伦风电基地、包头巴音风电基地、通辽风电基地、甘肃酒泉风电基地、吉林大安风电基地等。
风电投资巨大需上市融资
分析师认为，由于风力发电投资巨大，上市融资可以说是企业发展的重要选择。天津滨海创投总经理罗卫革认为，风力发电企业面临的主要难题还是资金，一个风力发电厂投资要5~6亿元，自有资金大概只占到20%左右。上海浦东发展银行中小企业部总经理赵可说，风力发电企业融资额一般较大，收入也比较稳定。近年来，国家也制定了一系列的优惠政策支持风力发电建设。方正称，这些政策包括就近上网，电价网内分摊，增值税减半等。同时“十一五”规划也把风电作为了实施重点。
目前，我国已经有十多家与风力发电经营相关的公司已在国内上市，包括粤电力A(000539，SZ)、鲁能泰山(000720，SZ)、申能股份(600642，SH)、国电电力(600795，SH)等。风能在我国新能源发展战略中已占有重要地位，2007年底，我国风电建设已经突破了600万千瓦，居世界第五位。
国家发改委负责能源管理和政策研究的司长周喜安说：“现在我国在建风力装机420万千瓦，去年投产有340万千瓦，比过去累计总和还要多。”按照现在的发展，年底国内装机突破了1000万千瓦，两年后将突破2000万千瓦，中国不久将成为最大的风力发电国家。
IBD看好塞拉尼斯
6/26
IBD报导，塞拉尼斯（Celanese）(代號:CE) 是一家全球领先的增值工业化学品生产商，生产乙酰基产品以及高性能工程塑料。公司总部设在美国达拉斯市，产品在北美、欧洲和亚洲制造，用于消费和工业品领域。尽管塞拉尼斯的化工产品在美国市场中受到经济疲软的影响而业绩萧条，但是全球市场对这家领先化工企业的产品需求正日益凸显。在美国市场方面，房产和汽车行业作为塞拉尼斯的主要客户正在下降，营收仅仅占到公司总业绩不到25%，公司的发言人表示：“我们正在关注东欧、中国、印度以及南亚其它市场。”对于醋酸基、醋酸乙烯单体、乳液、共聚甲醛产品的需求如此巨大以至于公司不得不在同一时间展开众多项目的生产。
利好方面，塞拉尼斯的醋酸基产品销售实力强劲，08年一季度净销售额达到18.5亿美元，同比增长19% 。公司报导一季度运营利润为2.34亿美元，同比为2.06亿美元；净营收为1.45亿美元，同比为2.01亿美元。一季度每股收益为1.06美元，同比增长了0.77美元。基于有效的增长战略和醋酸基的销售业绩，塞拉尼斯提高08年全年利润预测，每股收益预测为3.60-3.85美元，07年为3.29 美元。Thomson Reuters的分析师预计公司08年每股收益将达到3.95美元，2010年每股收益将达到5美元。
分析师McCarthy表示：“我们预计09年业绩增长实力将为公司迎来强劲的每股收益和自由现金流量。”他所在的公司拥有塞拉尼斯1%的普通股。但是本季度的业绩预测尚未涵盖公司进行的更多股权回购带来的盈利。塞拉尼斯计划在一项4亿美元的普通股回购计划之下，斥资6000万美元回购一部分股票。同时，塞拉尼斯与一些主要原材料供货商达成了长期合同，公司从一家位于特立尼达岛的供货商那里买入甲醇，并在沙特阿拉伯的一家甲醇合资企业里拥有25%的股权。塞拉尼斯还在中国南京建立了化工厂，计划利用当地的煤炭资源为公司提供一氧化碳的原料。
本季度塞拉尼斯的亚洲部门的净销售额达到11亿美元，同比增长31%，南京化工厂方面的业绩尤为显著。“为了满足全球的市场需求，塞拉尼斯所有的工厂都在加大马力运作中。”公司的Ticona板块一季度销售业绩上涨了12%，这主要是受到新产品上市和亚洲的强劲需求促动。
在消费者板块方面，塞拉尼斯的特殊消费板块涵盖了醋酸盐以及高度甜味剂产品，一季度销售额有5%的增长。公司的特殊消费版块正在为满足全球日益增长的环保产品需求而努力发展。从竞争角度考虑，塞拉尼斯所专注的业务领域能够使其成为全球数一数二行业巨头，分析师Oberle表示，公司有95%的营收是来自此项板块的。
Investor's Business Daily
While U.S. Languishes, The Rest Of World Wants More Chemicals
Wednesday June 25, 6:05 pm ET Paula L. Stepankowsky
The U.S. market for Celanese chemicals products may be in the doldrums but global demand is strong, allowing the Dallas company to expect continued revenue and earnings growth in 2008 and beyond.
The U.S. housing and automotive industries -- large users of Celanese (NYSE:CE - News) products -- are in a slump, and U.S. revenue makes up less than 25% of the company's total revenue, says Celanese spokesman Mark Oberle.
"As we look at demand growth and the strength of the economy in Eastern Europe, China, India and other parts of Southeast Asia, those markets continue to be very strong,'' Oberle said.
Demand is so strong for its acetyl products -- used to make vinyl systems, paints, coating adhesives, polyester, fabric sizing and other items -- that the company has been able to increase volume and raise prices at the same time.
Positive Outlook
"Celanese continues to have a positive outlook on the acetyls market through at least 2010," wrote Kevin McCarthy, an analyst for Bank of America Securities, in a report.
Strength in acetyl sales helped Celanese report record results for the 2008 first quarter, when net sales totaled $1.85 billion, a 19% increase over the $1.55 billion reported in the year-ago period.
Celanese reported a first-quarter operating profit of $234 million, up from $206 million a year ago on continuing operations. Net earnings were $145 million, compared with $201 million a year ago. But last year's figure included a one-time gain from discontinued operations in the year-ago period.
Adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter were $1.06 compared with 77 cents in the same period a year ago.
Based on its growth strategy and stronger prices for acetyls, the company increased its full-year earnings outlook to between $3.60 and $3.85 a share, up from the previous guidance of between $3.40 and $3.70. That compares with the $3.29 earned in 2007.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimate the company will earn a mean of $3.95 in 2008. The company has also said it has an earnings-per-share goal of $5 by 2010.
"We forecast cyclical strength through 2009 that should result in strong earnings per share and attractive free cash flow,'' wrote McCarthy, whose company or an affiliate owns more than 1% of Celanese's common stock.
The guidance given at the end of the first quarter doesn't include the benefit of more share buyback, wrote Frank Mitsch, an analyst for BB&T Capital Markets, in a report.
Mitsch says Celanese appears committed to buying back stock with $60 million already repurchased on a $400 million authorization.
The company's profits are bolstered by the fact that it took several steps in the past few years to reduce the impact of higher raw materials costs on earnings and cash flow, Oberle says.
Celanese entered into favorable long-term contracts for some of its key raw materials, Oberle says. Instead of producing methanol itself, using Gulf Coast natural gas, the company bought methanol from a provider in Trinidad under a favorable contract, he says. The company also owns a 25% share in a methanol joint venture with Saudi Arabia.
When it built its new integrated chemical plant in Nanjing, China, the company chose to use coal to provide a key raw material, carbon monoxide, rather than other higher-cost alternatives.
The strongest of the company's four operating segments is the acetyl intermediates segment, which saw significant sales and earnings growth in the first quarter from expansion in Asia.
Net sales in the division were $1.1 billion in the quarter, a 31% increase from the same period a year ago due to increased volume from the new Nanjing plant and higher pricing because of continued demand.
"Celanese is running all of its plants at full rates to meet the strong global demand," wrote Mitsch, whose company expects to seek banking business from Celanese in the next three months.
The company's Ticona segment, which makes advanced engineered materials, saw a 12% sales increase in the first quarter, driven by new products and strong demand in Asia.
The Ticona division makes high impact resistant plastics, used in automotive fuel systems, electronics, safety system and hybrid electric systems. The division also makes materials used in knee and hip replacements, as well as parts for an asthma inhaler, Oberle says.
Growing interest in environmentally friendly plastics has increased in the past few months, something that will benefit the Ticona division, Oberle says.
"That's creating a real opportunity," he said. "We would expect revenue and volume growth to increase, and we expect it to be the fastest growing business we have.''
Consumer Segment
The company's consumer specialties segment, which includes acetate and high intensity sweetener products, saw a 5% sales increase in the first quarter.
"Both are very steady businesses and economically insensitive because of end-market applications,'' Oberle said, adding that they are also good generators of cash.
The company's industrial specialties business saw a 5% sales increase in the first quarter, despite poor housing conditions in North America. The division is meeting the demand for environmentally friendly products with a new line of emulsions for the painting and coating industry that have less odor than paints in the past.
"That's an area that's promising, even in this housing market," Oberle said.
From a competitive standpoint, Celanese focuses on businesses where it can be the No. 1 or 2 player in the global market, Oberle says. He says 95% of the company's revenue comes from products in that position in the market.
"We've done a lot of work over the last few years to exit businesses that don't meet that profile,'' he said.
http://www.celanese.com.cn/
三大巨头争投醋酸项目: 预计到2010年,我国将从醋酸净进口国转变为净出口国
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
IBD看好Polypore Intl
IBD报导，Polypore Intl(代號:PPO) 是一家拥有微孔膜技术的全球领先企业，专门生产用于分隔和过滤的各种薄膜和光纤，包括分隔离子电池、血液、水或是任何其它用途。虽然混合动力汽车尚未开始使用锂电池，但这却是汽车未来的发展趋势。随着主要汽车生产商着力于混合动力汽车的生产，他们急需更多的分离锂离子而非铅蓄电池，因此这方面的市场需求是巨大。除此以外，锂电池在便携式电动工具、电子自行车以及用以发电的蓄水池方面也有广泛使用。因此为Polypore拥有极大的业务空间，William Blair分析师Jeff Germanotta表示：“随着锂电池打入了众多市场领域，我们认为公司业绩将有良好增长。”
Robert W. Baird分析师Richard Eastman表示：“这是一个人人关注的领域，电池行业即将迎来一次行业变革。” Polypore正是使用锂离子制造分离器的三大企业之一，拥有巨大的市场空间。由于还为其它产品诸如汽车电池等提供零件，公司必须保证业务朝着正确方向发展。但是终端产品的销售状况不佳，公司的CFO Lynn Amos认为这是公司面临的最大挑战，他表示：“在某种程度上，公司能够成功与否取决于合作伙伴的成功，因此你得选对人。”
Lithium Ion Batteries Should Give Its Filtering Products A Charge
Tuesday June 24, 5:57 pm ET
Steve Watkins
You don't see much of what Polypore International makes.
It makes thin films or fibers that are used to separate and filter a lot of things, whether it's ions in batteries, parts of blood, water or any of a host of other uses. But the results of its work aren't often visible to the naked eye.
"The things we filter, if you could see it, it would be a boulder by our standards," said Polypore (NYSE:PPO - News) Chief Financial Officer Lynn Amos.
It focuses on two areas: energy storage, mainly in batteries, and what it calls separation media. The latter involves filtering anything that requires an increased level of purity, such as water.
Energy storage makes up about 70% of sales. Polypore is the world's leader in making separators used for lead-acid batteries, such as those in your car. It has about 60% of the market in that field.
But it's also a major supplier for lithium ion batteries. That high-growth area features batteries used for laptops, cell phones and other electronic devices. It's also where the greatest growth opportunity lies.
Hybrid vehicles haven't started using lithium ion batteries, yet, but they will. With every major car maker working on hybrid cars, and each one needing more separators for lithium ion than they do for lead-acid batteries, the opportunity is enormous.
Beyond that, lithium batteries are gaining use in portable power tools, electronic bikes and in power storage for utility companies. It all spells opportunity for Polypore.
"As lithium penetrates a number of markets, we think they have a lot of runway for growth ahead," said Jeff Germanotta, analyst at William Blair.
And hybrid vehicles haven't even been made yet with lithium ion batteries. The first, by Mercedes, is expected to be launched late this year. So that hasn't even been a source of Polypore's growth yet. But all car makers are moving to lithium batteries.
"That's the transition everybody is looking at," said Richard Eastman, analyst at Robert W. Baird. "It's somewhat of a revolution in the battery industry."
Polypore is one of just three companies that make the separator material used in lithium ion batteries, so the opportunity is huge.
It's among the leaders in its other areas, too. Those include making membranes used to filter blood for kidney dialysis. In fact, its niche areas have grown at a 20% clip over the past six quarters.
Its diversity and high-tech expertise set it apart from rivals, Amos says. It's a technical business, and Polypore has a lot of patents.
"We believe we have the broadest portfolio of products, breadth of product and technology know-how," Amos said.
Also, its specialization in thin films or fibers gives it an edge, analysts say.
"They have industry-leading technology in every market they play in," said Brian Drab, another analyst at William Blair. "This management team has its finger on the pulse of technology advancements."
The high-tech nature of its business and management expertise boosts its margins, Germanotta says. Those combine to give it cash-flow margins that are nearly double its peer groups.
"We think they're well-positioned for superior long-term growth," he said.
Polypore is already showing growth in the short term. First quarter sales rose 13% to $145.3 million. Profits more than tripled to 26 cents per share from 8 cents a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect earnings to soar 116% this year to 95 cents per share. They see 21% profit growth next year to $1.15.
It's grown through small, selective acquisitions, too. In January it bought a distributor in India.
"We think India will be the next China," Amos said.
It also bought another company in March and a South Korean firm in May that will add to earnings next year.
The overseas moves are not surprising. About two-thirds of Polypore's sales come from outside the Americas, Amos says.
It's typically got more that it can do than it should do.
"Our challenge is not finding growth opportunities, but finding the right ones," Amos said. "We can guarantee technical success, but not commercial success."
Because it supplies parts used in other products, such as car batteries, it has to bet on the right horse. Some end products might not sell. Amos calls that the company's biggest challenge.
Eastman also cited that as a risk.
"To some degree, your success is tied to your partners' success," he said. "You have to pick the right partner."
Customer concentration is another factor. When it picks the right partner, it gets a boatload of sales from that partner. Its top five customers make up one-third of sales.
"If a big customer departs, you'll feel it," Eastman said.
Polypore also has a relatively high debt load with $833 million in long-term debt. But analysts and Amos downplay that. The firm throws off enough cash flow to offset that. And it used money from its initial public offering last year and a later stock offering to pay down debt.
"Our debt is very manageable for us," Amos said.
The slow U.S. economy is less of a concern. Recurring revenue such as from replacement car batteries makes up 75% of its sales. And people still do kidney dialysis, regardless of the economy.
And then there are the broader trends, such as lithium ion batteries.
"It's our belief the secular drivers trump the cyclical drivers," Germanotta said.
Monday, June 23, 2008
WWEI
WWEI http://www.welwind.com/ SEC
加拿大伟力 Welwind Energy International
广东风电初显“沿海模式” 2007-11-12
The Zhanjiang Project
湛江东海岛
The Zhanjiang Project will see the instillation of a six hundred (600) MW wind farm on the subject property. Through a cooperative agreement with Guangzhou Engga Wind Energy Co. Ltd (“Engga”), the first turbine produced by Engga for the Company rolled-off the production line in February 2007. During this Phase 1, the Company expects to build forty-nine (49) MWs.
Installation of the 750 KW test turbine was completed in May 2007. ENGAA, the turbine manufacturer, immediately commenced monitoring the data from this first turbine. By July 2007, ENGAA had completed its commissioning stage of the Zhanjiang Turbine and had begun to assess and analyze the data from that turbine.
A Project Feasibility Study Report and Grid Connection Report were finalized in November 2007 by the Guandong Electric Power Design Institute, and subsequently submitted to the Guangdong Power Grid Corporation for review in anticipation of finalizing a Power Purchase Agreement (“PPA”).
However, certain unexpected issues arose late in 2007 related to the Zhanjiang Windfarm. During the due diligence period for the PPA, an issue with the local Port Authority arose requiring meetings with various levels of the Zhanjiang Government and the Port Authority. In a meeting during January 2008 between Welwind representatives and high ranking officials of the Port Authority and Government, all outstanding issues were resolved and the PPA due diligence process should be completed sometime during the 2nd quarter of 2008.
The Yangxi Project
阳西、阳东
The base of the Yangxi Wind Farm Project was completed, along with the installation of the 100 meter meteorological tower, in June of 2006. At that time, we began to collect data necessary to provide the information required to build out the wind farm. Phase 1 of the Yangxi wind farm will consist of a 49 MW project. We anticipate that the Yangxi project will consist of a total of 400 MWs once fully completed.
In January 2008, after 16 months of collecting date from the tower at the Yangxi location, a formal Project Proposal was submitted to the Yangxi Government. All data collected to date shows promising results for the future build out of this wind farm.
Friday, June 20, 2008
巴菲特买入的浦项制铁 20个月涨两倍
价值投资网（www.jztzw.com） 2007-11-29 美钢铁股平均市盈率13.96倍 截至目前，在美国股市上市的钢铁股共有41只。除去4只在OTCBB市场交易的股票，理财周报记者对在美国证券交易所、纳斯达克和纽约证券交易所交易的37只钢铁股票进行统计后得出：截至美东时间9月25日收盘，在美国上市的钢铁股的算术平均市盈率为13.96倍，市盈率最高的是Claymont钢铁公司（Nasdaq：PLTE），达到33.05倍，该公司目前股价为18.4美元（按当日汇率折合人民币138.25元，下同），每股收益0.59美元（折合人民币4.43元），市盈率最低的是TERNIUM S.A. ADS（NYSE：TX），仅为3.72倍，但该股的每股收益有4.27美元（折合人民币32.08元）；每股收益最高的是力拓股份（NYSE：RTP），达21.01美元（折合人民币157.86元），每股收益最低的是WHEELING－PITTSBURGH（Nasdaq：WPSC），为-6.76美元（折合人民币－48.36元）。 纽柯钢铁为高盛首选股票 高盛在9月份的分析报告中，将纽柯钢铁（NYSE：NUE）列为钢铁行业的首选股，原因包括其低成本的防御性、产品多样性、业绩优异、股票回购及分红收益可观等。另外，该股具有内生成长性及并购题材，产品组合不断改善。但从盘面上看，纽柯钢铁今年仍处在盘整阶段，从1月3日到9月25日上涨幅度为9.41％，略输于道琼斯指数的10.45％涨幅。其目前每股收益5.43美元（折合人民币40.8元），市盈率10.84倍。 米塔尔今年涨超道琼斯78％ 2006年1月27日，全球最大的钢铁生产企业米塔尔（MITTAL STEEL）对排名第二的阿塞洛（ARCELOR）发出收购要约。并购之后，米塔尔（NYSE：MT）便取得了不俗的成绩，从2006年1月3日到5月8日，股价一路从26.83美元狂奔至42.28美元。今年1月3日到9月25日，股价从40.80美元上涨到76.97美元（折合人民币578.31元），涨幅达到88.65％，而同期道琼斯指数涨幅仅为10.45％。目前该股每股收益6.54美元（折合人民币49.14元），市盈率11.79倍。 巴菲特：浦项制铁“有利可图” 巴菲特今年3月份向其经营的伯克夏•哈撒维(BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.)股东表示，到2006年12月31日为止，该公司持有全球第三大钢铁厂韩国浦项制铁（POSCO）4%的股权。巴菲特没有透露何时买进浦项制铁的股票，但就在他宣布持有浦项的当天，浦项（005490.KS）股价上涨3.1％，当日韩股综合股价指数则下跌0.23%。巴菲特在给股东的年信中说，最近一两年来，全球钢铁行业的并购与整合风起云涌，而钢铁股股价也在整合预期的鼓舞下普遍走高，使得持有此类股票“有利可图”。 理财周报记者查询获悉，在本国股市，浦项制铁2006年1月2日股价仅为201500韩元，到今年9月21日，股价一路上涨到671000韩元（折合人民币5368元），涨幅233％，远超过同期的汉城综合指数（KS11）38.15％的涨幅。浦项制铁目前每股收益42115韩元（折合人民币336.92元），市盈率也从过去的5倍左右上升到15.93倍。 新日铁涨幅3倍于日经指数 新日本制铁公司（Nippon Steel Corporation）是日本最大的钢铁公司，1970年由世界排名第6的八幡和第10的富士钢铁公司合并成立，成立后其钢产量一举达到3295万吨，名列世界榜首。从今年年初至今，该公司在本国的上市股票——新日铁（5401：JP）一路振荡上扬，由今年1月4日的644日元上涨到9月25日的825日元（折合人民币54.06元），涨幅为24.25％。同期日经指数（NIKKEI 225）涨幅仅为6.91％。新日铁股价的涨跌对日本股市起着举足轻重的作用。目前新日铁每股收益54.29日元（折合人民币3.56元），市盈率15.219倍。
国际钢铁股备受市场青睐。2003年以来，米塔尔钢铁公司（ARCELOR MITTAL）在纽约交易所的股价上涨了16倍，美国钢铁公司（UNITED STATES STEEL）股价则上涨了8倍。今年以来，国际钢铁股持续上扬，钢铁板块涨幅明显超越大盘。在国际钢铁股基本面不断改善的情况下，市场对钢铁股不断给出新的估值——从过去的5－7倍上涨到2007年的11倍，2008年的估值则在10－11倍。
美国钢铁产业的新机会
2008年04月29日
引言：由于进口钢材不容易满足需求，美国钢铁市场出现供应短缺，美国钢铁生产商现在享有很大的定价权力
来源：《汽车人》 作者：朗嘉编译
如果要在当下变化无常的股票市场寻找一种相对安全的赌注，钢铁股票或许值得一看。
在华尔街的分析家群体中，他们对美国的钢铁生产商越来越看好。从去年10月份到今年2月份，钢材价格明显上涨，美国市场钢材的价格从545美元 上涨到665美元，5月份的定单的报价已经高达800美元。这些分析家提高了美国钢铁生产商的股票购买级别，甚至提高对它们的利润评估。实际上，从年初到 3月中旬，标准普尔的钢铁指数增长了近4%，相比之下，标准普尔500家股票指数下降12%。
一些基金经理也增加了更多钢铁公司的股票，包括美国钢铁公司（U.S. Steel）、纽科钢铁公司（Nucor）和商业金属公司（Commercial Metals），这些公司的毛利润比原材料价格增长更快。
供求规律战胜经济衰退
在美国经济处于衰退的边缘的时候，钢铁产业还能够提高价格和增加利润，这似乎有些不可思议。
分析家认为，这完全是供求规律在起作用。北美的钢铁工业生产能力不足，每年的钢材缺口为3000万吨到4000万吨，考虑到美元疲软和进口运输 成本上升，从外国进口的钢材不可能弥补缺口。巴西、俄罗斯和印度的低成本钢铁生产商，应当是最有条件的出口商，但它们没有增加出口能力有很多原因，比如巴 西缺乏资金、隐含政治风险，印度政府的官僚主义以及地方势力反对。
北美钢材的供应短缺，由来自工业化地区和国家——例如西欧、加拿大和日本的出口来填补。这些地区和国家每年出口钢材1000万吨到1500万 吨，另外的500万吨到1000万吨，由一些外国公司——例如俄罗斯的耶弗拉兹控股集团（EvrazHolding Group）供应，耶弗拉兹控股集团和其他的外国公司用半成品钢材和成品钢材供应它们在美国的子公司。匹兹堡Hatch Associates Consultants咨询公司的钢铁业顾问兼战略咨询部主任理查德·麦克劳克林说：“这些进口是有理由的，它们相对稳定，并且反映了长期的关系。”
在过去6个月中，美国从中国进口的钢材却下降了约50%，这是因为中国钢铁生产商在已经负担了昂贵运输成本（每吨超过150美元）的基础上，现在又增加了出口的抑制因素——在去年12月份，中国政府开始征收出口税。
来自海外进口的减少，增加了美国国产钢铁的吸引力。更重要的是，美元疲软，使美国产品对于海外购买者而言更加便宜，也使外国钢铁生产商希望将产品出售给美国之外的消费者，因为外国将支付比美元更坚挺的货币。
“高盛全球投资调查公司”钢铁股票分析家奥尔多·马扎费罗说，美国钢铁供应商的存货从过去3年的平均供应3.2个月下降到目前的平均供应2.5个月，这不仅抬高了价格，而且使钢铁厂的定单交付期从3周缩短到12天。
在钢铁经营周期的这个阶段，供应中心的存货通常开始上升，因为当存货下降到2.7个月的供应量以下时，供应中心一般重建存货。分析家大卫·加格 里亚罗在“瑞士信贷股票研究报告”中表示，现货市场价格增加40%以上，通常会吸引进口，然后推动供应中心的存货上升，不过他同时强调：“这种情况目前没 有出现，现在进入了强劲的二季度需求时期。”
美元疲软帮了大忙
如此，钢材进口下降给予了美国钢铁生产商很强的定价权。美国钢铁生产商拥有定价权力，这在6年前只是梦想。当时，一些小的钢铁生产商——例如LTV钢铁公司和国家钢铁公司，为了一小片市场都会进行激烈竞争。
加格里亚罗的报告表示，由于全球钢铁生产量已经接近生产能力，其他国家的钢材价格仍然比美国高，且美元进一步贬值，这将使出口到美国的钢材价格更昂贵，美国钢铁生产商正从外国生产商拿走市场份额。加格里亚罗预期钢铁生产商很强的定价权力将延伸到2009年，甚至更长。
麦克劳克林说，在主要供应汽车制造业和家用器具制造业的平轧钢部门，美国钢铁公司、纽科钢铁公司和总部设在卢森堡的阿赛洛米塔尔公司，控制了美国国内三分之二以上的产量。也正是有了这种集中，美国钢铁生产商对价格就有更大的发言权，能够在经济衰退的情况下发展经营。
美国钢铁生产商除了定价权力的促进，合并也是一种很有利的手段，可以使美国钢铁生产商更容易吸引过剩的生产能力和在必要的情况下削减生产。美国 钢铁生产商与经济衰退“绝缘”的另一个办法，则是购买一些办公用品制造商和建筑材料制造商，钢筋产品制造商主要制造用于道路和桥梁的钢筋混凝土钢结构，比 如，纽科钢铁在购买钢筋产品制造商方面特别积极，Vulcraft公司和Magnatrax两家企业被它收纳旗下，而这两家企业制造建筑钢结构产品——例 如墙板和屋顶产品。当然，更普通办法是生产所谓长线产品——例如用于建筑业的钢筋和用于汽车、家用器具的平轧产品。
居安思危改善经营
商业金属公司，是投资家克雷格·霍奇斯共同管理的7.8亿美元的多元市值的“霍奇斯基金”( HODGES CAPITAL MANAGEMENT )最高控股企业之一，利用废钢铁代替铁矿石，该公司节约了资金，并且通过它的商业部门购买废钢铁赚得了超额的利润。
在过去的几个月，由于钢材价格急剧上涨，霍奇斯也购买美国钢铁公司的股票，他预期当钢铁价格上涨到800美元1吨时，将获得巨大的利润。最近，JP摩根证券公司将它对北美碳钢生产商第一季度利润的估计提高13%，说价格上涨将帮助钢铁生产商普遍大幅获利。
在今后的几个季度，分析家们实际更看好一些“微型钢铁厂”，例如纽科钢铁公司。克班资本市场公司（KeyBanc Capital Markets）副总裁埃里克·克伦斯认为，这些新兴的钢铁公司由于总成本很低，工厂规划更好，有更高效率的工序，加之价格没有铁矿石和冶金煤涨得快的废 金属是他们的使用原料，所以经营效益仍然较好。
JP摩根公司分析家迈克尔·甘巴德拉认为，由于微型钢铁厂从现在到5月份要宣布几种热轧钢板涨价，延压金属的价格很容易涨得更高，将比去年8月份高63%。他还预测，所有生产碳钢的公司在报告第一季度成果时，将大幅增加它们二季度的利润预期。
虽然从年初以来，纽科钢铁公司的股票上涨了19%；商业金属公司的股票从年初到目前为止，表现中等；美国钢铁公司股票从2月初的92美元低点复 苏。但从较长时期来看，美国钢铁工业依然面临较大的潜在威胁，而这种威胁很可能来自中国，因为中国有便宜的劳动力的优势，它也正从出口钢材向出口包含更多 劳动单位的钢铁制成品——例如办公用品、钉子和小汽车的方向转变。
“这将侵蚀我们的钢铁制成品市场，但在今后几年还不会出现这种情况。” 麦克劳克林这样说道。他同时表示，目前，美国有500万吨的额外生产能力在建设之中，但大部分属于德国钢铁生产蒂森克虏伯公司在亚拉巴马州的工厂，如果运输价格适度和美元走强，就能预期来自低成本地区的出口钢材增加。而要在美国加大建设额外钢铁生产能力的力度，将取决于美元保持疲软有多久和进口运输价格有多高。Keybanc提高钢铁类股票预期
6/20/2008
券商Keybanc提高了某些美国钢铁公司的业绩预期。券商表示在未来数个月内对美国钢铁行业和服务中心而言是一个挑战，但是目前看起来早期回报正在以令人鼓舞的态势增加。然而，券商预计北美出货趋势将在季节性疲软的下半年放缓。在券商看来，疲软的国内需求将很容易的被较低的进口水平和提高的出口机遇所抵消，这表明近期对钢铁需求的下降将是非常小的。券商将Olympic Steel Inc (代號:ZEUS)的目标价从70美元提高到85美元；将Steel Dynamics Inc. (代號:STLD)的2季度收益预期从0.90美元提高到0.95美元，共识0.92美元，将2008财年收益预期从3.50美元提高到3.70美元，共识3.40美元；将Nucor Corp. (代號:NUE)的2季度收益预期从1.80美元提高到1.85美元，共识1.76美元，同时券商把United States Steel (代號:X)的目标价从190美元提高到230美元。
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx...
击败GE？从变速风机的专利创新开始
供稿人：陆斌 供稿时间：2008-3-31
（一）变速风机的实现方式
风能已成为在研究和教育中具有巨大潜能的一门重要学科。随着立法推动着风能地位的进一步提升，改进风机效率和产量成为许多公司研发计划的首要目标。
风机的主要难题是如何把高度变化的输入（转子承受的风力）转变为适合电网连接的稳定电流输出。其中一种方式是通过调整桨叶和电力输出使得发电机在与电网同步的固定速度工作。但这会浪费可利用的风能，由于这种情况导致了变速驱动技术的诞生。在变速驱动情况下，风机可由不同的风速驱动，接着电力电子技术将发电机的交流输出改为直流（随后再转变为50Hz或60Hz交流电流）。
然而这个变频阶段增加了成本，并引发了效率损失和稳定性问题。在重要的北美市场，GE Wind Energy在变速专利中必要的电力电子技术方面占据主导地位。风机制造商如要进入北美市场，要么支付许可费，要么研发绕过专利的新技术。实际上各公司研发人员已承担起他们的责任：
一种方式是采用一种适合不同输入驱动速度和带有维持同电网同步的电磁片的发电机。由德国Weier开发，之后被Gamesa和Fuhrlander引入北美市场的旋翼电流控制型（RCC）发电机是这一类型，此外还有Vestas的Opti-Slip技术。由于采用主动桨叶控制，这些方案效率都较高。
无齿轮箱方式则是直接驱动低转速永磁交流发电机。Enercon期望通过这类系统绕过GE专利（ABB在此之前尝试），但GE根据其输出仍设定在稳定的60Hz，提出了质疑。法律纠纷的结果是GE授权Enercon变桨变速直驱产品进入北美市场。但市场有传言Enercon在一项限制美国生产商产品在德国市场销售的专利上作出了一定的让步。
另一种方式是利用可变比齿轮箱获得变速。
制造商已经尝试几种可变输入速度/固定输出速度齿轮箱，主要驱动同步旋转发电机。同电网同步的发电机以固定速度旋转，速度取决于它们供电的频率。它们采用自励磁，无需滑环，也不需要重型电力电子设备同电网连接。带档位齿的机械可变比齿轮箱不适合驱动发电机，这是由于变比是离散的，无法获得精确的适合频率。另一方面，液力偶合器提供了适合变速和变扭矩的连续变比。但现有的液压技术还无法满足风机电力或增速要求。
然而如果机械齿轮转动和液压系统结合起来，将会发生什么事？这种系统是否能够无需电力电子技术解决变速难题，从而击败GE？
（二）一种新方法
EU Energy公司在DeWind 8.2新产品上证明这恰好可以做到。新风机使用一个液力子系统稳定驱动发电机的输出轴速度，这样避免了使用变频器。子系统采用液力偶合器可连续调整速度。通过在液力系统中的可调导叶，可进行有效控制。早期迹象表明这种等同于连续可变比齿轮箱，效率和市场前景均十分看好。
图1：DeWind 8.2-2000安装于德国Cuxbaven
图片来源：EU Energy公司资料
拥有DeWind公司和技术的Wind公司技术主管Vic Lilly介绍了该产品开发背景到及开发过程：“当决定针对北美洲市场生产风机时，我们寻找无需电子变频器和塔基处变压器的可能解决方案。EU Energy当时对DeWind的收购提供了创新的机会。德国Voith Turbo公司一直设法引起风机制造商对其WinDrive液力驱动系统的兴趣，但并未成功。各风机制造商满足于它们现有的技术，对其技术不感兴趣。但我们被吸引了并且进行了详细的调查”。
最后DeWind决定采用此项技术，并在2005与Voith达成了为2MW DeWind D8.2产品开发WinDrive传动装置的协议。 根据协议，EU Energy/DeWind获得WinDrive 2013年前2.6MW产品以下的独家许可。
为了将DeWind D8.2直径80m转子的18rpm转为满足60Hz要求发电机的1800rpm转速，需要经过转子输入动力全范围的1:100增强比，这对于以液力为基础的系统是一个苛刻的要求。因此机械齿轮传动系统仍是必须的，特别对于高风速而言。但对于低风速的少量动力传动，液力系统已经足够。当低风速时转子输入扭矩变化较大，液力系统在大范围扭矩差具有的连续可变输入-输出速度条件的优势变得几乎没有价值。
因此如何结合系统的二种类型？系统之间的简单切换在某些风速下是有缺陷的。不仅仅切换的不连续带来潜在的不稳定性，而且存在一段风速范围，齿轮传动和液力系统都能对驱动动力有作用，它们相互补充的特点使得到发电机的动力传动更流畅，更易调节。因此如果根据产品运行条件，选择采用同时从两系统获得动力，或者由其中之一占主导地位，那么产品性能更有优势。
公司所采取的方案是聚合从行星齿轮处两个来源获得的动力，驱动同步发电机。行星齿轮载体直接由机械齿轮传动输入驱动，而液力系统的动力通过一环状齿轮传递给行星齿轮本身。不同行星齿轮的差分旋转决定着动力向输出轴的分配。机械驱动和液力扭矩转换器共同作用组成了变速齿轮单位。
WinDrive液力驱动单位是基于Voith多年来在工业和气体压缩机应用的液力扭矩转换技术。平稳的技术更新使系统高度可靠，有些驱动装置在几十年运转中未发生故障。产品要求平均无故障工作时间大约30年。同变频电力电子装置部件故障经常需要上门服务相比，WinDrive液力驱动单位具有明显的优势。液力偶合器可环节狂风和电网故障所引起的震动，因此减少了传动系统的疲劳度。这一优势可延长齿轮箱和风机的寿命，或者动态负载部件相同寿命可采用更轻更便宜的材料制造。
合成SCADA和停车控制的基于计算机风机控制系统使风机保持最优运行状态。电网公司能远程控制系统。液力系统的控制可通过调整Voith液力驱动单位内的的导叶实现。转子桨叶角度、扭矩转换器和发电机的励磁的饲服控制回路可实现功能上的一体化。由密码保护远程监控程序允许当前和历史运行数据的自动转换。
WinDrive已证明了其不同转子转速适应同电网连接固定的发电机速度的能力。这意味着异步和同步发电机可以直接连接，消除了对变频装置的需要。 因此GE专利没有被侵犯。在DeWind 8.2，四极无刷同步发电机替换了DeWind前风机产品D8中使用的双回馈感应发电机。发电机电压可根据不同电网标准在4.16KVA到13.8kVA之间选择。
EU Energy不是唯一利用变速风机齿轮箱的风机制造商。挪威的Scanwind测试了一台带有挪威设计齿轮箱的3MW研究样品。另据报道新西兰开发的Windflow系统采用由转矩受限齿轮箱驱动的同步发电机，齿轮箱内有一液压泵用于感应机械片。美国研究人员在美国国家可再生能源实验室的WinPACT项目中研究了可替代齿轮箱概念。
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Barron's：Ariba盈利近在咫尺
6/19 02:56 EST
Barron's报导，Ariba Inc(代號:ARBA) 近期15.82美元的股价是值得我们好好分析的，预期股价将进一步上升，这显示公司目前良好的业务水平。明年Ariba的每股自由现金流量将达到75c，这将导致公司的市盈率升至21倍，正符合公司目前的大幅涨势。Cowen & Co的分析师Peter Goldmacher表示：“经历了一个长期的艰苦的转折以后，公司最终朝向正确的财务收益和现金流量方向发展。”公司表示，在07年3月31日以后的 12个月里，约有50,000个供货商与259位买入者利用公司的软件在线进行了1100亿美元的商品交易。Ariba因此获利1300万美元。
Ariba预计今年的利润将上涨至2500万美元。但是这并不表示资产负债表将有所增加。因此，公司预计09年仍将有所亏损，但亏损幅度将下降。 Ariba的最大潜力在于现金流量方面。公司的CFO Jim Frankola表示，09年年末公司预计将提高20%的运营现金流量，不包括租用校园所支付的费用。同时，公司的CEO Robert Calderoni表示，由于Ariba的软件能够降低出错率，这将帮助买方降低成本、卖方加快交易速度，因此交易量将继续上升。如果公司能够控制好成本开支，上述有利条件能够一一出现，那么真正的现金获利将近在咫尺。
SaaS: CRM, CTXS, CNQR, TLEO, ARBA, OMTR
Open Source: RHT, FIRE
美国超导公司
美国商业资讯2006年11月29日马萨诸塞州维斯特伯勒消息——
领先的能源技术企业美国超导公司（American Superconductor Corporation，纳斯达克股票代码：AMSC）今天宣布，已签署正式协议，将收购Windtec公司。位于奥地利克拉根福的Windtec公司是 一家私人企业，从事风轮机系统设计专利的开发和授权，并销售风轮机电力系统。交易预计于2007年1月完成。
美国超导公司创始人、首席执行官Greg Yurek说，“风力发电是当今电力能源领域最活跃的市场之一，差不多所有的行业专家都预测，风力发电将为全球企业和家庭供电发挥越来越重要的作用。根据 全球风能理事会（Global Wind Energy Council）的数据，2005年，全球风力发电装机容量约为59,000兆瓦，预计2010年将翻一番，达到135,000兆瓦左右。我们相信，此次 收购将显著扩大美国超导公司在风能市场的收益，加快公司实现整体盈利的步伐。”
美国超导公司以130万股普通股的代价收购Windtec公司，按昨天收盘价计算，价值约为$1240万美元。交易完成时将发售的美国超导公司股票应符合 禁售规定；同样，根据这项规定，2010年1月之前，Windtec公司创始人暨唯一所有人Gerald Hehenberger每年只可出售一定数量的股份。
Windtec公司自主开发各类风轮机系统，某些情况下还会授权第三方使用这些设计方案；每安装一套Windtec设计的风轮机系统，第三方需交纳一笔预 付费用和特许使用费。技术引进方如需升级风轮机系统或进行优化，Windtec公司还可为他们提供咨询服务。引进方通常从Windtec公司购买风轮机电 气系统，其中配备了美国超导公司的PowerModule系统，用于控制功率通量。Windtec公司的客户和目标市场包括加拿大、中国、捷克共和国、德 国、印度等国家的工业设备制造商和工程施工企业，他们正在解决本地风轮机系统制造商数量不足的问题。
Yurek说，“过去18个月，Windtec公司成了PowerModule在中国的主要销售渠道，我们希望这种情况也能很快扩大到新的市场。从 Windtec和美国超导公司的紧密合作中可以清楚地看到，在电力电子、电气系统、风电场电网互连解决方案方面，还有风能发电机这样的旋转电机领域，双方 许多销售和技术合作都能产生增效作用。通过这次收购，我们可以充分发挥双方的实力，优化调整在亚太区的销售队伍、现场服务团队和已规划的生产之运作。”
美国超导公司今天还宣布，收到Windtec公司一份新的PowerModule系统定单，系统将用于中国新增165台风轮机的功率通量控制。这份定单计 算在内，美国超导公司的PowerModule系统将为中国785台风轮机系统提供支持，在华实现风力发电装机容量近1,200兆瓦。
http://www.amsc.com/international/documents/WindtecmergerChineseSimplifiedEdited.pdf
Xugong goes with the windBy Zhang Qi (China Daily)
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2008-06/13/content_6758531.htm
Updated: 2008-06-13 09:50Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group (XCMG), the country's largest manufacturer of heavy construction machinery, plans to make an initial investment of 500 million yuan ($72.34 million) to diversify into wind turbine production at a time when crude oil price is going through the roof.
Wang Min, president of the Jiangsu-based company, said revenue from this new line of business will amount to about 10 billion yuan a year in three to five years. He declined to elaborate on the investment, saying the company was yet to make a final decision on the project.
But according to an XCMG official who asked not to be named, a new factory will be built for the fabrication of wind turbines with capacity of 1.5 mW to 2 mW. Production is expected to commence in the latter half of 2009, he said.
The official also said Xugong (as XCMG is also called) is considering licensing the wind turbine technology from US-based engineering company Windtec and Germany-based Aerodyn for around 100 million yuan.
XCMG's new venture could benefit from the Jiangsu government's efforts to promote wind farms to cut down the dependence on coal and oil to feed the province's huge industrial sector.
Xugong has a joint venture with Germany's ThyssenKrupp Technologies Group to manufacture specialized large-diameter slewing bearings that are a major component of, among other things, wind turbines. Nearly all major wind turbine producers in China buy the bearings from Xugong's joint venture.
For that reason, diversification into wind turbine production is a logical step in the company's expansion, the official said. The project is also in line with Xugong's ambition to step up the manufacturing of whole heavy machinery equipment rather than component parts, he said.
Wang recently announced Xugong will exit its joint venture with US heavy equipment maker Caterpillar to set up its own excavation machinery unit with an investment of 200 million yuan. He has also said Xugong will take over a national heavy truck manufacturer by the end of this year, but hasn't disclosed the company's name.
China plans to triple its wind power capacity over the next two years from 6,000 mW to 20,000 mW, said Song Yanqin, deputy director of research management and international collaboration division of China's Energy Research Institute.
Statistics indicate the Chinese turbine industry has now caught on, accounting for 56 percent of the newly installed wind turbines in 2007. This is vastly different from the situation a year before, when foreign manufacturers dominated the market.
"China's wind turbine producer Xinjiang Goldwind is leading the market with a capacity of 780 kW. But since the 1.5 mW variety will soon dominate the market, the industry might be restructured," said Shao Yukai, an energy analyst with Shanghai-based Xingye Securities.
"This means if Xugong acquires an edge in producing 1.5 mW units, the restructuring would be an opportunity for the company. But the dominance of the four leading Chinese wind turbine producers - Goldwind, Huarui, Dongfang Electricity and Yunda - won't be easily altered. It may take more than three years for Xugong to break into the top league in the wind turbine industry," Shao said.
风电设备：电力设备行业系列研究报告之一
投资要点
◇全球风电产业迅猛发展。全球的风能约2.74×109MW，其中可利用的风能为2×107MW，比地球上可开发利用的水能总量还要大10倍。而截止至2006年底，全球风电装机总量仅为74223MW，风电发展前景远大。近十年来，全球风电产业得到了很大发展，年均增长率高达30%。
◇我国风电产业进入高速良性发展期。国家发改委编制的《可再生能源中长期发展规划纲要（2004-2020）》中，提出到2020年我国风电机组总装机容量要达到3000万千瓦，占全国发电装机总量的2.71%。而截止到2006年末，我国风电机组总装机容量才260万千瓦，仅占全国发电装机总量的0.42%。政府制定了一系列的扶持政策，包括上网支持政策，税收优惠政策，电价管理政策等。
◇整机制造技术瓶颈有待解决。目前，我国已经掌握了兆瓦级风电机组的生产技术。2006年，1.5MW发电机组诞生。但是这些兆瓦级国产发电机组尚未进入批量生产，需要接受实践的检验。国外巨型公司已经能够生产5MW级的风机，差距甚大。
◇零部件需求超过供给。目前，我国已经能够自主生产叶片，齿轮箱，电机等零部件，但是尚未掌握偏航系统和电控系统的生产技术，构成国产化生产的制约。由于对整机的需求保持旺盛姿态，而零部件生产却远远落后于整机生产需求，故看好零部件生产公司。
◇看好行业龙头企业。作为整机制造商，金风科技无疑是行业内龙头。金风科技是上市有望带动一大批从事风电制造的企业。湘电股份，华仪电气等从事风电机组零部件生产的上市公司有望有更好的表现。
1.全球视角下风电产业发展潜力巨大
1.1需求旺盛，风电产业正迎来历史发展期
2005年2月16日，京都议定书正式生效，该议定书中规定工业化国家将在2008到2012年间，使他们的全部温室气体排放量比1990年减少5%。全球140个国家将寻求可再生能源以代替煤炭，石油等传统能源，包括中国在内的许多国家立法保证了可再生能源的生产。而在可再生能源中，风能的利用最具商业价值，原因在于：风能研究技术相对较为成熟，实际上正在成为蓬勃发展的新兴产业，而生物质能，太阳能技术上尚有待研究，成本较大。
1.2世界风能储量巨大，为风电产业发展提供保证
太阳辐射的能量到地球表面约有2％转化为风能，全球的风能约2.74×109MW，其中可利用的风能为2×107MW，比地球上可开发利用的水能总量还要大10倍。而截止至2006年底，全球风电装机总量仅为74223MW，风电发展前景远大。
近十年来，全球风电产业得到了很大发展，年均增长率高达30%，而据专家预测，该趋势在可预见的未来不会发生逆转。但是，受风电产品制造能力约束，该增长率将趋缓，预测2008年的增长率将为7.7%。如果相关国家采取更为积极的政策支持风电产业发展，该增长率有望更为乐观。
1.3世界各主要地区利用风能发电状况
1.3.1政策支持将保证欧盟继续成为风电市场的排头兵
欧盟是世界上风电产业最发达的地区，截止到2006年底，风电累计装机为48062MW，占65.18%。2007年，欧盟3．3%的电力需求是由风电供应的，据估计，到2030年，这一比例将扩大到25%。与此相对应，风电设备制造业在欧盟最为发达，VESTAS，GAMESA，NORDEX，REPOWER等全球主要风电设备制造商均在欧盟。这与欧盟支持风电产业发展密切相关。
1.上网支持政策
欧盟大多数国家采取了该政策，要求电力公司全额收购风电企业所供应的电，并且收购价格不得低于某一固定值，该最低电价一般高于市场价格，但是各个国家的具体做法各异：
国家
电价政策
德国
采取固定价格制，2007年初风电上网价格定为8.19欧分，而基准价格为5.17欧分
丹麦
采取价格连动制，风电价格等于NORDPOOL市场价格加上环境补贴1.3欧分。
西班牙
风电上网价格由市场电价加上3欧分的补助组成，只有50MW以上的项目菜能获得此支付价格。
英国
采取投标制度，中标合同电价与平均电力交易市场价格之差由政府补贴，补贴费用则来源于政府征收的“化石燃料税”。
2.配额制
包括英国，瑞典，意大利，比利时，波兰在内的国家都采取了配额制。比如英国于1999年7月,制定并通过了《可再生能源义务令》，该法案要求供电商有义务购买一定比例的可再生能源电力，可再生能源电力的比例由政府每年根据可再生能源的发展目标和市场情况等来确定。到2010年，应保证有10%的电力资源来自于可再生能源，以确保政府总体目标的实现。
1.3.2税收优惠政策刺激美国风电产业蓬勃发展
2006年美国累计装机总量为11603MW，新增装机2454MW，连续两年高速增长，这得益于美国国会延期税收优惠政策至2008年，因此，预计2007年和2008年美国的风电产业将继续扩大。
1.3.3印度迎头赶上，分享风电盛宴一杯羹
由于一系列的税收优惠政策，印度近几年来风电产业得到巨大发展，已经成为全球第四大风电制造国。2006年风力发电总装机容量为6300MW，比2005年高出1430MW，尽管如此，该趋势仍然会得到加强，印度政府在规划中提出到2010年，风电总装机容量达到10000MW，这意味着每年12.2%的年均符合增长率。印度的风电产品不仅可以满足国内需求，而且最近已经开始出口海外，技术上已经达到国际先进水平。
2.风电设备将受到我国投资者的青睐
我国是《京都议定书》签约国，有义务将污染气体降低要一定限度以下，在能源需求保持强势走强的情况下，我国必然要发展可再生能源，尤其是风能。《可再生能源法》的出台为我国风电产业的发展提供了很好的政策支持，但是相比起我国700-1200GW的可利用风能而言，2006年底260万MW的总装机容量仍然偏低，这个缺口将由后续投资来弥补。
2.1中国风能资源储量大，分布较集中
我国幅员辽阔，陆疆总长达2万多公里，还有18000多公里的海岸线，边缘海中有岛屿5000多个，风能资源丰富。根据中国气象科学研究院绘制的全国平均风功率密度分布图，中国陆地10m高度层的风能总储量为32.26亿KW，实际可开发的风能资源储量为2.53亿KW，近海风场的可开发风能资源是陆上的3倍，据此，我国可开发的风能资源约为10亿KW。我国现有风电场场址的年平均风速均达到6米／秒以上。一般认为，可将风电场风况分为三类：年平均风速6米／秒以上时为较好；7米／秒以上为好；8米／秒以上为很好。可按风速频率曲线和机组功率曲线，估算国际标准大气状态下该机组的年发电量。我国相当于6米／秒以上的地区，在全国范围内仅仅限于较少数几个地带。就内陆而言，大约仅占全国总面积的1／1OO，主要分布在长江到南澳岛之间的东南沿海及其岛屿，这些地区是我国最大的风能资源区以及风能资源丰富区，包括山东、辽东半岛、黄海之滨，南澳岛以西的南海沿海、海南岛和南海诸岛，内蒙古从阴山山脉以北到大兴安岭以北，新疆达板城，阿拉山口，河西走廊，松花江下游，张家口北部等地区以及分布各地的高山山口和山顶。根据全国气象台部分风能资料的统计和计算，中国风能分区及占全国面积的百分比见下表。
2.2政府政策要求风电产业高速良性发展
国家发改委编制的《可再生能源中长期发展规划纲要（2004-2020）》中，提出到2020年我国风电机组总装机容量要达到3000万千瓦，占全国发电装机总量的2.71%。而截止到2006年末，我国风电机组总装机容量才260万千瓦，仅占全国发电装机总量的0.42%。目前我国风力发电成本约为8000元左右，考虑到规模化和技术进步，我们假设我国风电成本到2020年下降30%，而欧洲在5年内下降了20%，那么到2020年我国风电投资约为1500亿元，再假设60%以上的投资为设备投资，那么未来十年设备投资总额应该超过900亿。
从图中可以看出，我国风电机组主要有600kW，750 kW，850 kW三种类型，而这三中类型在我国已完全国产化，技术上不存在问题，但是兆瓦级的发电机目前只是生产出样机，尚未完全商业化运作，现在运行中的兆瓦级机组主要依赖进口。但是以往过度依赖进口的趋势得到了缓解，按装机容量计算，2006年，我国41.3%的风电机组是国内制造。而国家在2006年发布的《国务院关于加快振兴装备制造业的若干意见》中特别强调，要在大功率风力发电机等新型能源领域等方面取得重大突破，“十一五”期间，风电设备国产化率有望达到70%。
2.4风电市场发展需要解决三大难题
1.要有一个合理的风电上网电价
自2003年开始的风电特许权项目对我国风能发展起到了积极的作用。到2005年为止，已有总装机容量为1500兆瓦的10个项目完成了招标，他们的平均中标上网电价为0.4894元/度。根据专家的测算，目前，我国风电上网电价如按年上网电量为等效满负荷2000小时计算，在0.6元/度电左右时，才能保证风电项目的投资回报率能高于常规发电项目的平均投资回报率。
2.要解决好风电并网的问题
据初步统计，为了完成2020年总装机容量3000万KW的目标，需要电网投资约75亿元以上。因此，在规划风电场建设时要同时规划电网建设，电网公司除了要优先收购风电外，还应承担电网建设和传递电力的义务。
3.进一步开展风能资源的调查与评估端
由于目前中国风能资源评估时主要利用气象台站10米高度处的测风资料，因此，所获得的风能资源分布还不能完全满足风电场的需求。因此有必要进一步开展风能资源的调查与评估，通过测风资料的整理与数值模拟研究相结合，给出50米、70米和100米高度层的风能资源量，并根据全国区域风能资源分布特征，对全国风电场建设规划提出更加科学的依据。
3.整机制造：得技术者得市场
目前，我国已经掌握了兆瓦级风电机组的生产技术。2005年，在科技部863项目下，沈工大开发出了1MW变桨变速双反馈发电机组，2006年，1.5MW发电机组。
截止到2006年底，金风，东汽，华锐，运达的累计装机容量分别为667350KW，15000KW，75000KW，31750KW，占总装机比例分别为25.64%，0.58%，2.88%，1.22%。我们看好这些行业中处于龙头地位的企业，基于如下理由：
第一，龙头企业在技术上占有优势是占领风电市场的“尚方宝剑”，金风科技在2006年全球新增风电装机市场占有率为2.8%，排名第十，在2006年中国新增风电装机市场占有率为33.29%，排名第一。从国际经验来看，谁拥有风力发电的技术，谁就占领了市场，金风科技建立了比较完备的技术开发体系，正在研制1.5MW部分新机型，2.5MW，3.0MW，5.0MW的风力发电机组，因此，在风电设备产品市场上，金风科技有望保持领先地位。
第二，龙头企业有望优先得到政策上的支持。从国际经验来看，风电设备市场在发展初期往往不具优势，政府往往采取一系列的保护措施保证该产业的发展，而先行进入该行业，在该行业中有一定影响力的企业往往首先得到政策的支持。
4.零部件制造发展潜力巨大
风力发电机组的主要零部件包括叶片，齿轮箱，电机，导航系统，电控系统。总体上而言，相对于我国整机制造，零部件制造比较落后，不能满足整机制造的巨大需求，因此，零部件制造发展潜力巨大。
4.1叶片-----技术瓶颈已消除
风机叶片作为风力发电机组的关键核心部件，也是最为昂贵的部件，占机组生产成本的20%~25%左右。目前我国已经能够自主批量生产1. 5兆瓦的叶片，基本满足现有机组的需要，我国国内生产厂商主要有惠腾，中复连众，上海FRP研究中心，国际上一些知名企业也落户中国，包括LM，vestas, gamesa等。
理论上直趋式风力发电机具有维护成本低、耗材少等经济可靠的优点，但在实际制造过程中，现阶段发电机本身的制造成本和控制难度加大，直趋式风力发电机组的售价高于双馈式，两种技术路线并存的局面短期难以改变。
目前国内制造风电电机的公司数量比较多，有永济电机厂，兰州电机有限公司，湘电股份，上海电气，东方电气，大连天缘，株州时代集团等等，而永济电机市场分额最大，占80%以上，兰州电机仅次于永济电机，占10%以上。但是该两家主要厂商主要产品仍然为双馈式发电机组，如果在技术上不发展直驱式，那么有可能会落后于湘电股份。由于对风电产品的整体需要上升，对电机的需求也日益强劲，不少公司已瞄准了该市场，包括上海电气在内的许多大型公司已经进驻风电市场，因此，目前的竞争格局很有可能会打破，在目前综合毛利为30%-35%的情况下，有可能会挤压毛利空间。因此，我们认为，电机制造的赢利预期与其需求紧密相连。
4.3齿轮箱----双寡头垄断格局正在打破
风力发电机组中的齿轮箱是一个重要的机械部件，其主要功用是将风轮在风力作用下所产生的动力传递给发电机并使其得到相应的转速。通常风轮的转速很低，远达不到发电机发电所要求的转速，必须通过齿轮箱齿轮副的增速作用来实现，故也将齿轮箱称之为增速箱。与其它工业齿轮箱相比，由于风电齿轮箱安装在距地面几十米甚至一百多米高的狭小机舱内，其本身的体积和重量对机舱、塔架、基础、机组风载、安装维修费用等都有重要影响，因此，减少外形尺寸和减轻重量显得尤为重要，技术的价值体现其中。
目前我国主要有3家公司制造风力发电齿轮箱：南京高齿，重庆齿轮有限公司，杭州前进齿轮箱集团，而前两家公司占据了绝大部分市场分额。2006年，南京高齿生产了500多套风电用齿轮箱，折合成装机容量超过了50万千瓦时，在国内风电齿轮箱领域占据了40％以上的市场份额。重庆齿轮箱公司目前每月能够生产80台2800千瓦的风力发电齿轮箱，20台1.5兆瓦的风力发电齿轮箱，市场占有率约为30%。杭州前进齿轮箱集团公司现在也涉足风电齿轮箱，有望打破双寡头垄断格局。最新进入风力发电齿轮箱的企业还有大连重工和四川二重。
4.4偏航系统----国内尚未掌握技术，主要依赖进口
偏航系统有两个功能：工作中运行和暂停状态时维持机舱的方向；必要时展开电缆。偏航系统主要由偏航测量及偏航驱动部分，机械传动部分，扭缆保护装置三大部分组成。目前我国尚未能够独立自主制造偏航系统，变桨和偏航轴承可以由国内的洛轴、瓦轴和徐州罗特艾德公司提供，但没有经过长期运行考验。
4.5电控系统---国内最薄弱的环节
目前电控系统完全依赖于进口，国内只有少数企业从事研究工作，包括许继电器，南京自动化研究中心，合肥SUNLIGHT。
5.国内主要上市公司介绍
5.1金风科技
金风科技成立于1998年，主营业务为大型风力发电机组的开发研制、生产及销售，中试型风力发电场的建设及运营。公司当前产品主要有600Kw，750 kW，1.2MW，1.5MW系列风力发电机组，正在研制的产品有GW82/1500，GW92/2500，GW92/3000，GW100/3000，GW5000系列风力发电机组。金风科技在国内行业内稳居龙头的地位。
5.2湘电股份
湘电股份是国家批准的四家兆瓦级以上风机制造商之一，2006年，公司定向增发4000万股，募资投向兆瓦级风力发电机组整体产业化项目，建设期为2年，2010年达产后将形成300套风力发电机组整机和500套电机电控年产能。
公司引进2MW永磁直驱风电设备技术，2007年11月3日，2台兆瓦直驱永磁同步风力发电机成功下线。因此，有望在2008年有较好的业绩表现。
5.3华仪电气
公司2006年经过资产重组后，主业变更为高压电器，风电设备制造。资产完成以后，公司具备250台风力发电机组的总装能力。目前，公司已经掌握780KW风机的技术，预计08年将进入大批量生产阶段，计划销售780KW机组300-500台。公司1.5MW的样机预计会在08年3月份左右做出来，样机做出来后，预计会小批量生产30台左右，如果一切顺利，09年将进入大批量生产阶段。
5.4鑫茂科技
鑫茂科技风电业务主要是研制生产750KW到2.5MW不等的风力发电机组叶片，其中，750KW的风机叶片在2007年已达批量生产，目前已生产37片750KW风机叶片。1.5MW以上产品正在进一步研制和开发中，预计2008年3月份将研制出第一套1.5MW的风机叶片模具。公司有望在2008年年初获得200套以上的750KW风机叶片订单，全年计划生产300套以上。
阀门龙头强势依然不减
十一五规划使产业格局重新部署，政策向设备制造、环保、航空航天、大型石油化工及消费类行业倾斜，而设备制造行业重点发展专用设备制造，广东明珠（600382）就是阀门类专用设备制造企业，阀门是石油、化工、电站、长输管线等行业不可缺少的流体控制设备，我国每年阀门市场成交额高达500亿元左右，阀门在机械产品中占有相当大的比重，阀门的产值是压缩机、风机和泵三者的总和，因此对公司的前景十分看好。
公司作为我国阀门生产行业的龙头企业，先后并购了深圳阀门厂和广州阀门厂，综合经济效益在中国阀门行业中排名第一位，公司是国家定点生产高、中、低压阀门的专业生产厂，产品通过美国石油协会API认证，适用于国内外的石油设施，产品畅销全球，大庆油田、西气东输、南水北调等重大工程均采用广东明珠的阀门产品。
近期举世瞩目的西部采油工程，以及“中哈”、“中俄”输油管道工程开工，对各类API标准阀门的需求达到过百亿元，全国排名第一的广东明珠将再次大显身手。二级市场上，该股近期温和放量，股价逐渐攀升，并且涨势不减，近期有望挑战前期高点，目前站于年线上方蓄势待发，建议重点关注。
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
First Pure Wind ETF Blows Onto the Scene
First Trust launched the first ever wind sector ETF today, ticker symbol will track the performance of the ISE Global Wind Energy Index.
From First Trust’s website: “The index is a modified market capitalization weighted index of publicly traded companies throughout the world that are active in the wind energy industry based on analysis of the products and services offered by those companies.”
With estimates from the U.S. Department of Energy that wind power could generate 20% of electricity by the year 2030, it looks like the ETF will play right at [Jim] Cramer favorites like Trinity (NYSE: TRN - News) and Otter Tail (NasdaqGS: OTTR - News), as well as many international giants in Asia and Europe. See the full ISE Global Wind Energy Index here.
I’m surprised this ETF is the first of its kind. In 2008, with so much speculation involving alternative energy, I expected to see a wind ETF already trading. The closest thing I could find to a wind ETF was the Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy (NYSEArca: GEX - News), whose performance has been quite unimpressive to say the least YTD. Anyway, this is a great way for wind bulls to segregate themselves from other forms of alternative energy.
Wind energy certainly has some advantages over the field: It is relatively inexpensive and about as ‘green’ as you can get (renewable and environmentally clean). It is only a matter of time before the United States catches up to the likes of Denmark and Germany. Wind power accounts for 19% and 6% of electricity in the two countries, respectively. As such, I have a long term bullish sentiment on FAN, especially because of its global diversity of components.
FAN opened around $31.00 today with around 275,000 shares traded as of early afternoon on Wednesday. This certainly will not be the last we hear of this one.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
SM: a growth stocks which the market hasn't valued correctly
St. Mary Land & Exploration (NYSE:SM - News) is one stock whose growth Jones says was mispriced. It was 2.15% of the fund as of April 30.
Jones has followed the company since the early 1990s, though it has only been added to the fund in the past year.
Many didn't see the stock's potential, she says. But two years ago she noticed that the company changed direction and focused more on exploration of gas reserves.
At that time natural gas still was relatively cheap. The huge run-up in prices had yet to occur. The result was a company with the potential to increase production when many other wells were running dry.
The company also invested in horizontal drilling technology, further boosting its competitive position.
The stock price, Jones says, was less than the value of their proven reserves assuming a crude oil price at $70 and natural gas at $8.
The stock spent much of 2007 between 30 and 40. It's now trading at 59 in new-high ground.
Wells Fargo Fund Casts A Wide Net
IBD看好PetroQuest Energy
6/16
IBD报导，在03年年底，PetroQuest Energy(代號:PQ) 决定降低在墨西哥湾，包括浅水水域的风险投资的数量，以便减少此海岸的风险资产数量。不同于墨西哥湾的是，内陆井是港储备必不可少的一部分，因此毫无疑问公司的运营将继续保持利好。Johnson Rice的分析师Ron Mills表示：“生产量更加稳定，不会产生大的波动，这对于公司来说是一个利好消息。” PetroQuest Energy目前专注于在三个领域里的开发：东得克萨斯州，俄克拉何马州以及阿肯色州的两大非传统叶岩地区。Ron Mills认为，Newfield Exploration是这些地区最大的运营商，而PetroQuest Energy则相对较小。开采业务仍然在Fayetteville叶岩地区进行，每天创造3.3 mcfe净产量，同比上涨10% 。
Domestic Oil Driller Sticks To The Tried-And-True And Avoids Risk
Friday June 13, 6:18 pm ET
Marilyn Alva
Should it bet the bank on high-risk wells that might pay off with a gusher -- but that run out of steam fast?
Or is it better to opt for low-risk concepts that keep going and going?
For PetroQuest Energy (NYSE:PQ - News), the choice was clear.
In late 2003, the E&P firm decided to dial down the volume of risky ventures in the Gulf Coast -- including shallow waters -- in favor of less risky projects away from the coast.
Unlike the Gulf Shore, inland wells are known to harbor reserves. So there's not as much guess work.
And they produce much longer, so they'd smooth the ups and downs of PetroQuest's production on the Gulf of Mexico.
"It's been a great idea for them," said Johnson Rice analyst Ron Mills. "Now production can grow more steadily, without the volatility."
Focus Of Attention
PetroQuest is focusing its new development work in three general areas: East Texas and two unconventional shale plays -- the Woodford Shale in the Arkoma Basin of Oklahoma and the Fayetteville Shale in Arkansas.
The company's goal is to have 75% of its reserves and 50% of production come from inland areas.
Chief Executive Charles Goodson told analysts in a May 21 conference call that the firm can achieve that goal by year-end. Some observers don't see that happening until 2009, however.
At the end of 2007, 60% of reserves and nearly 30% of production came from these longer producing areas.
Cash flow from Gulf Coast projects, meanwhile, is mostly funneled inland.
Only 25% of PetroQuest's 2008 capital budget will go to the Gulf Coast, which includes south Louisiana and shallow water offshore.
The firm recently raised its drilling budget from $230 million to $260 million, thanks in large part to higher gas prices.
About 85% of PetroQuest's production comes from natural gas.
In the first quarter, 38% of output came from inland areas vs. 23% in the same quarter last year.
First-quarter production reached 7.89 billion cubic feet of gas equivalent a day, up from 7.69 billion last year. Of that, 6.72 billion was from natural gas. The rest was oil.
Total revenue rose 20% to $76.8 million.
Earnings grew 27% to 28 cents a share.
Higher commodity prices were a key part of the equation. Average realized gas prices in the first quarter were $8.41 per million cubic feet gas equivalent (mcfe) vs. $7.28 in last year's same quarter. Oil prices were $94.08 per barrel vs. $60 last year.
Analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters estimates that full-year profit will rise 68% over last year to $1.33 a share. Analysts expect 9% profit growth in 2009 and 21% in 2010.
Meanwhile, PetroQuest is on track to grow reserves by 30% "with the drill bit" in 2008, Goodson said in the conference call with analysts.
He and other execs were unavailable to comment for this story.
Successful leasing activity is especially paying off in the Woodford Shale, where PetroQuest has more than 31,000 net acres.
It completed its 13th horizontal well in the first quarter, which now averages 4.6 mcfe a day.
"As we sit here today, we are producing approximately 27 mcfe per day of Woodford gas ... and have another four to six wells that should reach total depth in the second quarter," Goodson told analysts.
Growth in the Woodford Shale could be substantial.
Johnson Rice's Mills says the biggest operator there, the much larger Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX - News), counts the play as one of its biggest growth engines.
Given that PetroQuest is a much smaller firm, Mills said PetroQuest is "one of the most levered companies to the Woodford Shale."
Drilling also continues in the Fayetteville Shale, where net production is 3.3 mcfe per day, up 10% from last year.
Wells in East Texas sandstone reservoirs are showing promise as drilling activity accelerates.
Even as it reduces its average working interest in Gulf Coast Basin wells, PetroQuest continues to benefit from drilling there.
New Discovery
In early March, PetroQuest announced a sizeable discovery from a well at Pelican point 14 Southeast Louisiana.
"This discovery should further help PetroQuest have a breakout reserve year," wrote Michael Bodino of Coker & Palmer.
For a small firm, one good hit like that "can materially move the needle," UBS Securities' Andrew Coleman told clients in an initiation report on April 16.
"The challenge for management is to keep production growing while cash generated in the Gulf Coast is redeployed to PetroQuest's onshore plays," he wrote.
Company execs don't rule out expansion into other inland shale fields via a small acquisition or new acreage. But they won't likely stray too far from home.
"The farther you get away from Lafayette, La., the more dependent you are on capable personnel," Goodson said in the call after an analyst mentioned shale plays in Canada that "people are talking about."
Speculating on Sun Hydraulics
By Tom Brennan
13 Jun 2008
One of Cramer’s hard and fast investing rules is that 20% of a portfolio can be speculative. A little risk makes the game exciting and fun. That’s important if 10-K reports, accounting statements and Microsoft Excel spreadsheets leave you bleary-eyed after a couple of hours. The potential payoff helps to keep your goals in sight.
That same anticipation also will animate a seemingly uninspired business like screw-in cartridge valves and manifolds. Yeah, we know – too exciting for words. But that’s just how Sun Hydraulics makes its money. Below that boring façade, though, is a booming industry.
Just so everybody’s on the same page: Cartridge valves control the force, speed and motion of fluids within a hydraulic system, and the manifolds are where you put the cartridges. The fact that Flowserve , Robins & Meyers and Colfax all are up today should give people an idea of how the fluid-control sector’s doing.
Sun Hydraulics is a new-tech name, making cartridge valves that are lighter, more flexible and more efficient than their cast-iron predecessors. The industrywide switch to these newer valves has spurred tremendous growth in SNHY and lent the company a good amount of pricing power. Sun Hydraulics’ cartridge valves go for as much as a 30% premium to the competition.
There are other reasons to like this stock, too: SNHY’s venture with White Oaks Controls and High Country Technologies to bring an electronically controlled integrated valve system to market; a strong export business, which makes Sun Hydraulics a good weak-dollar play; the possibility, Cramer said, of a takeover; very little analyst coverage; and a great balance sheet.
SNHY could go to $48 from $37, Cramer said, just on the strength of the company’s growth alone.
Remember, this is a small company, with just about a $623 million market cap, and the stock was up big Friday. So be smart and wait to buy – if that’s what you’ve decided to do after finishing your homework on Sun Hydraulics.
Cramer认为Sun Hydraulics(代號:SNHY) 作为一支油压机械类股票正处于看涨阶段。Sun Hydraulics的国际市场占有率很高，约占公司外还销售额的50%，在市值方面，他认为Sun Hydraulics的股价仍然较低，资产负债表和债务状况都表现良好。他认为Sun Hydraulics目前38美元的股价将上涨至48美元。
IBD看好Sun Hydraulics
6/11
IBD报导，尽管美国经济增长放缓，但Sun Hydraulics(代號:SNHY)并未收到美国房产市场不景气的冲击，仍然源源不断地获得美国国内和国外的石油平台、卡斗车以及采矿设备的订单，市场需求增长强劲。
“但我们不能过度开采全球的金属、矿石和天然气资源，”Sun Hydraulics的投资关系部发言人Rich Arter表示，目前的市场不成体系所以很难进行量化处理，但是Sun Hydraulics的市值达到35亿美元。随着GDP的增长，公司的业绩涨幅将达到10% 。
虽然公司并没有业务保护的专利权，但由于制造过程十分复杂，可以制作高性能零件，因此盗版分子难以复制。但是分析师仍然预见到经济风险，尽管公司通过多种业务途径获得盈利，但并不能幸免于目前经济不景气的大环境。任何全球高价资本开支的放缓都将施压于公司股票。
Monday, June 16, 2008
GOING PUBLIC: First Wind Energy Co. IPO Planned In US
GOING PUBLIC: First Wind Energy Co. IPO Planned In US
Last Update: 5/22/2008 2:15:58 PM
By Lynn CowanOf DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
In a first-ever for the U.S., a company focused entirely on wind energy isplanning to come public, with Noble Environmental Power Inc. registering an IPOto list on the Nasdaq later this year.
Based in Essex, Conn., Noble Environmental registered earlier this month with theSecurities and Exchange Commission to raise as much as $375 million through aninitial public offering. The amounts actually raised in IPOs can varydramatically from the registration figure; Noble Environmental has not set aprice range, share size or date yet for its offering, which it plans to listunder the symbol “NEPI.”
Noble Environmental currently operates 282 megawatts of electrical generatingcapacity in New York state and has 950 megawatts that it expects to bring onlinein 2008 and 2009. By the end of 2012, it expects to have 3,580 megawatts ofcapacity by expanding to other states, including Maine, Minnesota and Wyoming.
No other company focused exclusively on wind power generation has ever launchedan IPO in the U.S., although there have been 17 such offerings in other parts ofthe world since 1995, according to data tracker Dealogic. But it was inevitablethat a wind-related offering would come to market in the U.S., given the growthin the industry and a rise in private investments in the sector, says RandallSwisher, executive director of the American Wind Energy Association, a tradegroup that promotes wind power.
Europe has about three times the amount of installed wind power capacity of theU.S., but the U.S. has been the largest market in the world for new wind turbinesales in the last three years, reflecting the growth in wind farms across thecountry, says Swisher. Worldwide, established renewable energy companies areeyeing the U.S. as a future source of wind farm growth due to its size, theavailable space for wind farms and expectations for changing government policiesfavoring more renewable energy investment, say experts.
A report earlier this month by the U.S. Department of Energy forecasts that in2008, wind energy will generate about 1% of the nation’s electricity; it modeleda scenario under which the U.S. could generate 20% through wind energy by 2030“if significant challenges” are overcome, including major changes to thetransmission system to deliver it to the electrical grid, improved power turbinetechnology and expanded markets.
Political, Equipment And Location Obstacles
Wind energy has had its share of challenges already: Federal tax credits havebeen allowed to expire three times in the last decade, turbine production ishaving difficulty keeping up with demand, and environmental and local communityconcerns can be a barrier to locating wind farms. But supporters of wind energysay that they believe the U.S. government will soon shift toward more permanentpolicies to support clean energy sources and reduce carbon emissions, laying thegroundwork for more industry growth.
“We already have renewable portfolio standards (that dictate how much renewablepower utilities must use) in 26 states, and no matter who becomes president,there will be a national renewable portfolio standard next year. I believe withcertainty that this country is ready to commit to reducing carbon emissions, andthat would change the playing field for renewable energy, leveling it out” interms of price competition with fossil fuels, says Phil Angelides, a principal atreal estate investment firm Canyon Capital Realty Advisors LLC and chairman ofthe Apollo Alliance, a group that is focused on promoting renewable energy andjob growth in the sector.
Apollo communications director Keith Schneider says Noble Environmental wasestablished in large part because state policies in New York expanded the needfor renewable energy. The company was founded in 2004, the same year the state’spublic service commission voted to adopt a renewable portfolio standard.
But Noble Environmental only began operating wind farms three months ago. It’shoping that growth in demand for alternative energy sources, as well aslegislative incentives for wind power, will benefit its business. Increasedenergy demand, rising fossil fuel costs, improvements in wind energy technologyand an abundance of wind in the U.S. are among the industry strengths NobleEnvironmental cites in its prospectus.
However, Noble Environmental has no financial track record and is essentially adevelopment-stage company. It has never generated any annual revenue, and netlosses have been rising at a fast clip, doubling to $42.5 million in 2007 from2006. The company expects to incur “substantial” pretax losses over the nextseveral years as it constructs new wind farms, hires new employees and expands.
Awaiting New Legislation
Legislatively, the wind farm industry is facing the possibility of losing sometax benefits. Federal production tax credits for the wind energy industry are setto expire at the end of this year. The House of Representatives passed a billextending them this week, but President Bush has threatened to veto it unlessprovisions he opposes are removed. Noble Environmental doesn’t have the taxableincome to use the tax credits anyway, but it warns that in the future, if thecredits aren’t extended or are renewed at a lower rate, its financing anddevelopment options for wind farms will be hurt.
The company currently finances its wind farms with a tax equity structure thatchannels ownership of the farms through limited liability companies. The methodallows investors of the limited liability companies to use the production taxcredits and allows the company to accelerate tax depreciation.
But investors in the limited liability companies - as opposed to investors in theIPO - typically receive all of the cash flows from the wind farms until atargeted rate of return is reached, reducing the cash available to NobleEnvironmental. The period of time during which the cash is diverted to theseinvestors can drag on longer than expected if the wind farms underperform,according to the company’s prospectus.
Noble Environmental’s primary owners, underwriter JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s (JPM)private equity division and the Canada Pension Plan, will continue to hold stakesin the company post-IPO, but that level hasn’t been determined yet. In additionto JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEH) and Credit Suisse Group Inc.(CS) are the co-lead managers on the offering.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Babcock to Receive Offers for European Wind Assets
June 16 (Bloomberg) -- Babcock & Brown Ltd. said it will get offers for European wind farms this week as the company tries to stave off a review of A$2.8 billion ($2.6 billion) of debt after a 53 percent stock slump last week.
Babcock, Australia's second-biggest securities firm, remains on schedule to sell assets including the Enersis business in Portugal in the third quarter of this year, it said in a statement today.
The shares rose for the first day in five, gaining 1.9 percent to A$5.35 at 12:56 p.m. in Sydney, giving the company a market value of A$1.78 billion. The sale could yield as much as A$2.5 billion to shore up its balance sheet as investors question its strategy of buying assets and bundling them into funds, according to analyst Kieren Chidgey at Merrill Lynch & Co.
``This will be the start of a long series of moves by Babcock to keep it's head above water,'' Greg Canavan, head of Australian research at Fat Prophets, said in an interview. ``The market is essentially saying that the business model is completely finished in terms of how it used to derive most of its earnings.''
Chief Executive Officer Phil Green is in talks with bankers after last week's slump pushed Babcock's market value below A$2.5 billion. Banks will have the right to force the Sydney- based company to pay back debt early or sell assets if it remains below that level at the end of a four-month review period.
`All About Confidence'
``Banking is all about confidence and they need to demonstrate to the market that they are on top of the situation,'' said Canavan. ``The banks won't be panicking too much as yet and will be happy to see Babcock conduct a number of asset sales.''
A successful sale could trigger a rebound in the shares, which trade at less than three times earnings after falling 80 percent this year, said ABN Amro Holdings NV analyst John Heagerty in a June 12 note. Failure may increase the risk of banks demanding early repayment of the debt.
Babcock & Brown Wind Partners, which owns wind farms in Asia, the U.S. and Europe, slipped 2.6 percent to A$1.50.
Babcock Wind, one of 13 listed Babcock funds, spent A$1.78 billion on acquisitions and new projects in last year's second half, boosting generation capacity about 67 percent.
Babcock Wind said in February it's the world's fifth- biggest wind energy company in terms of installed capacity. Its parent Babcock in December 2005 bought Enersis in Portugal for 490 million euros ($754 million) before selling half of it to the wind fund.
http://www.bbwindpartners.com/media/348819/29%20apr%2008%20presentation%20to%20london%20infrastructure%20conference.pdf