IBD看好塞拉尼斯

6/26

IBD报导，塞拉尼斯（Celanese）(代號:CE) 是一家全球领先的增值工业化学品生产商，生产乙酰基产品以及高性能工程塑料。公司总部设在美国达拉斯市，产品在北美、欧洲和亚洲制造，用于消费和工业品领域。尽管塞拉尼斯的化工产品在美国市场中受到经济疲软的影响而业绩萧条，但是全球市场对这家领先化工企业的产品需求正日益凸显。在美国市场方面，房产和汽车行业作为塞拉尼斯的主要客户正在下降，营收仅仅占到公司总业绩不到25%，公司的发言人表示：“我们正在关注东欧、中国、印度以及南亚其它市场。”对于醋酸基、醋酸乙烯单体、乳液、共聚甲醛产品的需求如此巨大以至于公司不得不在同一时间展开众多项目的生产。

利好方面，塞拉尼斯的醋酸基产品销售实力强劲，08年一季度净销售额达到18.5亿美元，同比增长19% 。公司报导一季度运营利润为2.34亿美元，同比为2.06亿美元；净营收为1.45亿美元，同比为2.01亿美元。一季度每股收益为1.06美元，同比增长了0.77美元。基于有效的增长战略和醋酸基的销售业绩，塞拉尼斯提高08年全年利润预测，每股收益预测为3.60-3.85美元，07年为3.29 美元。Thomson Reuters的分析师预计公司08年每股收益将达到3.95美元，2010年每股收益将达到5美元。

分析师McCarthy表示：“我们预计09年业绩增长实力将为公司迎来强劲的每股收益和自由现金流量。”他所在的公司拥有塞拉尼斯1%的普通股。但是本季度的业绩预测尚未涵盖公司进行的更多股权回购带来的盈利。塞拉尼斯计划在一项4亿美元的普通股回购计划之下，斥资6000万美元回购一部分股票。同时，塞拉尼斯与一些主要原材料供货商达成了长期合同，公司从一家位于特立尼达岛的供货商那里买入甲醇，并在沙特阿拉伯的一家甲醇合资企业里拥有25%的股权。塞拉尼斯还在中国南京建立了化工厂，计划利用当地的煤炭资源为公司提供一氧化碳的原料。

本季度塞拉尼斯的亚洲部门的净销售额达到11亿美元，同比增长31%，南京化工厂方面的业绩尤为显著。“为了满足全球的市场需求，塞拉尼斯所有的工厂都在加大马力运作中。”公司的Ticona板块一季度销售业绩上涨了12%，这主要是受到新产品上市和亚洲的强劲需求促动。

在消费者板块方面，塞拉尼斯的特殊消费板块涵盖了醋酸盐以及高度甜味剂产品，一季度销售额有5%的增长。公司的特殊消费版块正在为满足全球日益增长的环保产品需求而努力发展。从竞争角度考虑，塞拉尼斯所专注的业务领域能够使其成为全球数一数二行业巨头，分析师Oberle表示，公司有95%的营收是来自此项板块的。

Investor's Business Daily
While U.S. Languishes, The Rest Of World Wants More Chemicals
Wednesday June 25, 6:05 pm ET Paula L. Stepankowsky

The U.S. market for Celanese chemicals products may be in the doldrums but global demand is strong, allowing the Dallas company to expect continued revenue and earnings growth in 2008 and beyond.
The U.S. housing and automotive industries -- large users of Celanese (NYSE:CE - News) products -- are in a slump, and U.S. revenue makes up less than 25% of the company's total revenue, says Celanese spokesman Mark Oberle.
"As we look at demand growth and the strength of the economy in Eastern Europe, China, India and other parts of Southeast Asia, those markets continue to be very strong,'' Oberle said.
Demand is so strong for its acetyl products -- used to make vinyl systems, paints, coating adhesives, polyester, fabric sizing and other items -- that the company has been able to increase volume and raise prices at the same time.
Positive Outlook
"Celanese continues to have a positive outlook on the acetyls market through at least 2010," wrote Kevin McCarthy, an analyst for Bank of America Securities, in a report.
Strength in acetyl sales helped Celanese report record results for the 2008 first quarter, when net sales totaled $1.85 billion, a 19% increase over the $1.55 billion reported in the year-ago period.
Celanese reported a first-quarter operating profit of $234 million, up from $206 million a year ago on continuing operations. Net earnings were $145 million, compared with $201 million a year ago. But last year's figure included a one-time gain from discontinued operations in the year-ago period.
Adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter were $1.06 compared with 77 cents in the same period a year ago.
Based on its growth strategy and stronger prices for acetyls, the company increased its full-year earnings outlook to between $3.60 and $3.85 a share, up from the previous guidance of between $3.40 and $3.70. That compares with the $3.29 earned in 2007.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters estimate the company will earn a mean of $3.95 in 2008. The company has also said it has an earnings-per-share goal of $5 by 2010.
"We forecast cyclical strength through 2009 that should result in strong earnings per share and attractive free cash flow,'' wrote McCarthy, whose company or an affiliate owns more than 1% of Celanese's common stock.
The guidance given at the end of the first quarter doesn't include the benefit of more share buyback, wrote Frank Mitsch, an analyst for BB&T Capital Markets, in a report.
Mitsch says Celanese appears committed to buying back stock with $60 million already repurchased on a $400 million authorization.
The company's profits are bolstered by the fact that it took several steps in the past few years to reduce the impact of higher raw materials costs on earnings and cash flow, Oberle says.
Celanese entered into favorable long-term contracts for some of its key raw materials, Oberle says. Instead of producing methanol itself, using Gulf Coast natural gas, the company bought methanol from a provider in Trinidad under a favorable contract, he says. The company also owns a 25% share in a methanol joint venture with Saudi Arabia.
When it built its new integrated chemical plant in Nanjing, China, the company chose to use coal to provide a key raw material, carbon monoxide, rather than other higher-cost alternatives.
The strongest of the company's four operating segments is the acetyl intermediates segment, which saw significant sales and earnings growth in the first quarter from expansion in Asia.
Net sales in the division were $1.1 billion in the quarter, a 31% increase from the same period a year ago due to increased volume from the new Nanjing plant and higher pricing because of continued demand.
"Celanese is running all of its plants at full rates to meet the strong global demand," wrote Mitsch, whose company expects to seek banking business from Celanese in the next three months.
The company's Ticona segment, which makes advanced engineered materials, saw a 12% sales increase in the first quarter, driven by new products and strong demand in Asia.
The Ticona division makes high impact resistant plastics, used in automotive fuel systems, electronics, safety system and hybrid electric systems. The division also makes materials used in knee and hip replacements, as well as parts for an asthma inhaler, Oberle says.
Growing interest in environmentally friendly plastics has increased in the past few months, something that will benefit the Ticona division, Oberle says.
"That's creating a real opportunity," he said. "We would expect revenue and volume growth to increase, and we expect it to be the fastest growing business we have.''
Consumer Segment
The company's consumer specialties segment, which includes acetate and high intensity sweetener products, saw a 5% sales increase in the first quarter.
"Both are very steady businesses and economically insensitive because of end-market applications,'' Oberle said, adding that they are also good generators of cash.
The company's industrial specialties business saw a 5% sales increase in the first quarter, despite poor housing conditions in North America. The division is meeting the demand for environmentally friendly products with a new line of emulsions for the painting and coating industry that have less odor than paints in the past.
"That's an area that's promising, even in this housing market," Oberle said.
From a competitive standpoint, Celanese focuses on businesses where it can be the No. 1 or 2 player in the global market, Oberle says. He says 95% of the company's revenue comes from products in that position in the market.
"We've done a lot of work over the last few years to exit businesses that don't meet that profile,'' he said.

http://www.celanese.com.cn/

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