GPN拥有坐收渔利的不二法则

9/11

立足全球市场处于不败之地的法则其实很简单：建立在国内市场需求旺盛基础上的巨幅营收，提供领先的业务服务，然后随着市场需求不断上升坐收渔利。这就是Global Payments(代號:GPN) 百战百胜的不二法则。作为一家电子交易处理服务领域的全球领导商，Global Payments的信用卡和借记卡制造业务持续发展，尽管信贷危机不断加深，信用卡日益取代现金和支票的速度却在不断加快。在欧洲和亚洲，Global Payments正在扩展新业务。即便在经济发展速度放缓的美国市场，信用卡和借记卡制造业务也在蒸蒸日上发展中。今年五月一季度，Global Payments核心业务增长了18% 。在海外市场的表现更加首屈一指，在加拿大的销售额上涨了36%；在中东欧的销售额大涨了近40%；亚太市场的销售额上涨了41% 。

总体上，公司四季度营收上涨了23% 。今年的营收同比上涨了20%至12.7亿美元。每股收益上涨了12%至1.98美元。在7月24日的电话会议上，公司CEO Paul Garcia还发布了喜人的09年业绩预测，预测营收将上涨27-31%至16.2-16.8亿美元；每股收益将上涨11-16%至2.20-2.30美元。近几个季度公司的业绩一致高于预期和预测，UBS分析师Adam Frisch表示：“Global Payments并不是有意放低业绩预测从而达到高于预期的目的，实际上公司的业绩预测是相当积极的。”

分析师认为公司正在积极进军海外市场，并东欧和加拿大市场中进行收购交易，这是两个分别能够创造4%和21%营收的大市场。今年六月，公司与HSBC(代號:HBC) 连手建立了一家合资企业，名为Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp，旨在进军销售额约占6%的亚太市场。分析师表示：“公司将在东欧和亚太市场搭上长期的业绩顺风车，信用卡类业务将以每年20%的速度递增。”“ 很显然，亚太市场将成为公司长期的战略目的地，亚太市场的发展速度远远高于预期，尤其是在中国和印度，由于越来越多的人开始出国做生意或度假，信用卡使用率正在成倍上升。”

同时，Global Payments还在巩固美国市场的业务，主要是电子交易支付处理业务。公司的计算机平台无处不在而且提供功能强大的信用卡服务。公司主要通过直营模式进行销售，但是也与一些独立销售机构进行业务合作。近期公司多数的业务增长主要是通过这些独立销售机构进行的。尽管能够带来较大的营收，但是公司面临着处理好与这些公司费用关系的问题，因为这直接影响到公司的利润增长。同时公司还维持着直营销售和独立销售机构的业务组合关系，分析师预计约有20-25%的业务来自独立销售机构。

尽管美国市场信用卡交易的增长开始放缓，但是信用卡交易量却在不断攀升，年增长率为15% 。那么Global Payments会不会受累于经济衰退的局面呢？分析师认为：“在经济大环境不利的局面下，没人能够幸免于难。但是Global Payments已经表示，其商业信用卡制造业务是非任意取代的，人们已经离不开信用卡了，不可能返回大量现金和支票交易的时代。”公司的支付处理业务占到总营收的近90%，主要来自于现金兑换交易，比如美国和西班牙移民将钱兑换并转入拉美。因此，分析师预计新的移民人群将成为公司未来最大的客户群。

Investor's Business Daily
Credit Card Transaction Processor Grows As The World Goes Plastic
Wednesday September 10, 5:49 pm ET
Norm Alster One formula for success in the age of global markets has become clear. Establish a domestic revenue base where demand is growing for an advanced business service. Then, piggyback that success as demand for that service grows abroad.

Such is the winning formula for Global Payments (NYSE:GPN - News), the Atlanta-based credit and debit card processor. U.S. credit and debit card use continues to grow. But as that growth slows, the use of credit cards is rapidly displacing cash and checks in many parts of the world. In Eastern Europe and Asia, Global Payments is there to pick up the new business.

Even as the U.S. consumer shows signs of exhaustion, credit and debit card processing has remained a healthy business. In its fiscal year ending in May, Global Payments grew 18% in its core business: selling its credit and debit card processing services to midmarket merchants. But it did even better overseas. In Canada, aided by favorable changes in card processing fees, it grew sales by 36%. In Central and Eastern Europe, sales swelled by nearly 40%. And in Asia-Pacific, they soared by more than 41%.

Revenue Growth

Overall, revenue grew by 23% in Global Payments' fiscal fourth quarter. For the year, revenue grew by 20% to $1.27 billion. Earnings per share, at $1.98, were 12% better than a year earlier.

In a July 24 conference call with analysts, Chief Executive Paul Garcia offered encouraging guidance for fiscal 2009. Revenue should grow to between $1.62 billion and $1.68 billion, a gain of 27% to 31%. Earnings per share should come in between $2.20 and $2.30, Garcia said, up 11% to 16%.

Global Payments in recent quarters has exceeded its own guidance. Asked by analyst Adam Frisch of UBS if Global Payments was again making a modest forecast it could then beat, Garcia replied: "You're asking us to say we are giving beat-and-raise guidance. I can't. We can't comment on that." (Global Payments did not respond to interview requests from IBD.)

However shy the company may be in its guidance, it certainly has not been shy about adventuring overseas. "The company has acquired its way into foreign markets," said Wayne Johnson, an analyst at Raymond James.

Acquisitions in Canada and in Eastern Europe bought footholds in markets that now contribute 21% and 4% of revenue. A joint venture with HSBC (NYSE:HBC - News), named for the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corp., provided entry into Asia, now accounting for 6% of sales. And in June, Global Payments and HSBC formed a joint venture -- Global Payments will own 51% -- that will do check and debit processing in the U.K.

The lure of foreign markets, particularly Asia, is the currently low but rapidly growing use of credit and debit cards. "There's a pretty good secular tailwind from Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific. Card use is much lower to this point, but it could grow 20% or more in coming years," said David Koning, an analyst at Robert W. Baird.

Said Johnson: "Clearly, Asia long-term is a potential home run. The Asian market has been growing above expectations." Beyond card adoption by middle-class consumers in China and India, there is increased card use by visitors. "More foreigners are traveling there for business and pleasure," Johnson said.

Meanwhile, Global Payments continues to grow its core business in the U.S. The essence of that business is signing up new merchants.

Once a merchant agrees to use Global's electronic payment processing platform, it pays a small fee to the Atlanta firm. The company nets anywhere from 25 to 45 basis points (or 25 to 45 cents on a $100 purchase) for electronically processing a sale, Johnson says.

The Global Payments computer platform verifies the validity of the card and passes on the account information to banks to see if the card has sufficient credit or funds.

Global lines up new merchants with its own direct sales force. But it also uses independent sales organizations (ISOs) to help bring in new accounts. Much of Global Payments' recent growth has been through the ISOs. They've helped bolster revenue, but they've also depressed margins. Global Payments must share the processing fees on customers won by ISOs.

The bad news, noted Johnson, is that "ISO growth is slowing." The good news, he says, is that this could help margins in the future, as ISO sales carry lower margins. Global Payments has not broken out the mix between direct and ISO-related business, according to Johnson. He estimates that 20% to 25% of Global's business comes through its sales force, the rest through ISOs.

Overall, credit card transaction growth in the U.S. has been slowing. But debit card transaction volume has been picking up the slack, swelling by roughly 15% a year, Johnson says. Could Global Payments be hurt by a deepening recession that slows consumer spending? "Nobody is immune to a bad economy," CEO Garcia told analysts. But Global Payments, he said, has many accounts with merchants that sell basic or "nondiscretionary" goods. People are far less likely to cut back on that sort of spending, he reasoned.

Payment processing represents nearly 90% of Global Payments' revenue. The rest come from its money-transfer business, which allows immigrants in the U.S. and Spain to send money to Latin America. As with payment processing, Global Payments saw growing opportunity for this business overseas.

While the bulk of the money transfer business is still in the U.S., Global Payments is enjoying strong growth from a small base in Spain. In a recent SEC filing, Global Payments suggested increased global "migration" would create new opportunities worldwide in money transfer.

One reason for the stock's relative strength in recent months was improvement in this business. Until its most recent quarter, money transfer had suffered from a number of adverse factors. Pricing on money transfer services was under pressure. Increased focus on illegal immigration likely made some immigrants reluctant to identify themselves at Global Payments branch offices.

"Immigrants may not want to create a paper trail," Koning said. Also, the depressed condition in home building cost many immigrants their jobs. And a slumping dollar tends to depress the volume of remittances.

"Growth had definitely slowed over the last few quarters," Koning said. But last quarter, revenue rose sharply, by almost 13%. CEO Garcia said some of the pricing pressures on the business had eased. "No more bad news is good news," Johnson said.