提及加拿大的魁北克省，第一个念头绝不是天然气。但是由于本月初宣布的新发现，该省将改变世人对其印象。被发现的天然气埋于尤蒂卡叶岩之下，可能蕴含41亿立方英尺的存量，该叶岩位于蒙特利尔和魁北克市之间的圣罗伦斯河旁。
加 拿大一出版商the Globe and Mail宣称，尤蒂卡叶岩将令魁北克成为“主要的天然气生产地之一”。该报纸还认为该省将成为“北美下一个勘探热点。”在这次大发现的背后是总部位于科罗 拉多州丹佛市的Forest Oil(代号:FST)。这家原油和天然气勘探制造商在4月初的分析师会议上披露发现尤蒂卡叶岩。
与巴涅特叶岩相似
Forest的官员表示，该叶岩的优势在于可使用现存管道，高品质天然气，深度较浅。他们另外表示尤蒂卡的地理位置与德州的巴涅特叶岩(Barnett shale)相似，该叶岩是美国最繁忙的陆上天然气开发地。 Forest的首席运营官JC Ridens在会议上表示，“我们不像其他叶岩开发商一样面临着一些挑战。我想你应该对这次开发抱以乐观态度。”另一个优势是尤蒂卡叶岩靠近美国东北的天 然气市场。
Ridens告知分析师，“我们的定价相比纽约商品交易所有所溢价，由于我们靠近东北市场。”去年公司在尤蒂卡叶岩层钻探了两个垂直测试井，达成了天然气日产量100万立方英尺的目标。考虑到这些矿井和其他资料，预计存量达41亿立方英尺。
今 年，Forest计画钻探超过三个水准井，水准井产量更高，同样，价格也更贵。公司在该领域控有269，000净英亩土地。 Forest的官员表示初始资料非常鼓舞人心，但是对尤蒂卡叶岩依旧持谨慎态度。分析师同样警告现在不要高兴太早。一些分析师表示该地域缺少服务工业行业 将延缓工程进度，而其他分析师希望获得更多的资料。
其他业务
Forest的其他业务在阿拉斯加，路易斯安那州，新墨西哥州，奥克拉荷马州，犹他州，怀俄明州和德克萨斯州，包括巴涅特叶岩.在最近一次的研究报告中，美联的分析师表示Forest Oil“在许多行业重要企业”中占有一定地位。
Forest最近以2.85亿美圆收购了阿肯色州，路易斯安那州和德克萨斯州47，000英亩土地。公司去年还完成了有史以来规模最大的收购，以16亿美圆价格购买了原油和天然气公司Houston Exploration。
稳定的管理
除了公司资产，Forest Oil的分析师认为公司的管理层也是一大优势。将公司首席执行官Craig Clark视为行业老手，关注于降低成本。分析师同样表示管理层具有一些缺点。 Carroll认为公司相比其他勘探和制造商过于保守。
Forest连续四个季度每股收益高于华尔街预期，公司每股收益增长103%,至0.79美圆，比预期高出0.02美圆，营收为3.336亿美圆。今年一季度，分析师预计每股收益增长48%,至0.89美圆，营收同比增长94%,至3.549亿美圆。
Thursday, April 24, 2008
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Investor's Business Daily
New Discovery Could Put Quebec On The Map As A Gas Producer
Wednesday April 23, 6:24 pm ET
Victor Reklaitis
When people think of Quebec, natural gas isn't what springs to mind.
But that's starting to change as a result of a discovery announced earlier this month.
The natural gas find, locked within a rock formation called the Utica Shale, may hold as much as 4.1 trillion cubic feet of reserves. It sits along the St. Lawrence River between Montreal and Quebec City.
One national publication in Canada, the Globe and Mail, declared that the Utica Shale may turn Quebec into "a major natural gas producer." The newspaper also said the province could become "North America's next hot new exploration zone."
The company behind the discovery is Denver, Colo.-based Forest Oil (NYSE:FST - News). The oil and gas explorer and producer disclosed its Utica Shale find at an analysts conference in early April, saying the play had several strong points.
Similar To Barnett Shale
The advantages include its access to existing pipelines, its high-quality natural gas and the shallow depth of the shale, Forest officials say. They add that the Utica play's geologic properties are similar to those of Texas' Barnett Shale, the busiest onshore gas field in the U.S.
"We do not have some of the challenges that other shale plays have," Forest's COO, J.C. Ridens, said during the conference. "As a result, I think you're going to see some extreme upside out of this play."
Another strength is the Utica Shale's nearness to the huge Northeastern U.S. gas market.
"We've got premium pricing to Nymex (the New York Mercantile Exchange) because of being located in proximity to the Northeastern market," Ridens told analysts. He called it a "head start on the Barnett coming out of the shoot."
Forest drilled two vertical test wells in the Utica Shale last year, achieving production rates of up to 1 million cubic feet of gas per day. Based on those wells and other data, it estimates reserves of up to 4.1 trillion cubic feet.
This year, Forest plans to drill three horizontal wells, which are generally more productive but more expensive. The company says it expects a full-scale drilling program at the Utica Shale by 2010. It controls about 269,000 net acres at the site.
Forest officials say initial results are encouraging, but they caution that the Utica play is in its early stages. Analysts also warn against getting too enthusiastic at this point. Some cite a lack of service industry capacity in the region that may slow progress, while others just want more information.
"It has big potential, but we need to see a little more data before you get overly excited about it," said Ken Carroll, an analyst at Johnson Rice & Co. He says it's important for Forest to double or triple production levels with the horizontal wells that are currently in the works.
"Everyone will keenly watch for those results," Carroll said.
Analyst Raymond Deacon cautions that some other companies involved in the Utica Shale haven't seen it as a growth driver. Deacon is an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, which has provided investment banking and other services to Forest Oil within the last year.
"Forest is kind of the first company I've heard say, 'This could have a lot of potential,'" Deacon said. He added that the Utica Shale could be a very meaningful find, "but it's going to be a couple of quarters before you really know."
The Utica discovery has put a spotlight on what previously had been a somewhat overlooked company, says Carroll, the Johnson Rice analyst.
Forest's forte generally has been its deep, low-risk inventory of "old school" assets, he said.
"Maybe if there's one thing that had been lacking in the Forest story, it had been some asset that brought some sex appeal and got people excited," Carroll said.
Other Operations
Forest's other operations are focused on places such as Alaska, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming and Texas, including at the Barnett Shale. In a recent research note, Wachovia analysts said Forest Oil had positions in "many of the key plays being pushed by the industry."
Investors may be surprised when they learn that fact. The analysts at Wachovia, which owns Forest stock, echoed Carroll in describing the company as somewhat overlooked.
Forest recently added to its assets with a $285 million acquisition of about 47,000 net acres in Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas. It announced that purchase in early April in conjunction with its Utica Shale news. The company also completed its largest-ever acquisition last year, buying oil and gas firm Houston Exploration for $1.6 billion.
Solid Management
Besides its asset base, analysts cite Forest Oil's management as a main strength. They characterize CEO Craig Clark as a no-nonsense industry veteran focused on keeping costs low. Analysts also say the company's management has some shortcomings.
"If there's anything that they can do a better job of, it might be promoting themselves a little bit," Carroll said. He says the company has been more conservative in that regard than other exploration and production firms.
Forest didn't return phone calls seeking comments for this story. The company's competitors and peers include Comstock Resources (NYSE:CRK - News), GMX Resources (NasdaqGS:GMXR - News), Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX - News), Penn Virginia (NYSE:PVA - News) and Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD - News). Record prices have helped lift the whole sector in recent months.
Forest has topped Wall Street's per-share profit forecasts for four straight quarters. In last year's fourth quarter, the company's earning per share rose 103% to 79 cents, beating views by 2 cents, on revenue of $333.6 million.
For this year's first quarter, analysts expect earnings per share to climb 48% to 89 cents. They see revenue rising 94% to $354.9 million.
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