今年玉米种植也许有所减少，但农业公司如CF Industries(代号:CF)根本不必为此担心，化肥需求仍然旺盛。总部位于伊利诺斯州Deerfield的化肥制造和行销商CF四季度业绩创下记录，由于公司产品在秋季广泛使用，而且农民为了春季种植而大肆囤积。
即使正如政府所估计的，玉米种地面积减少，但是其他农作物的种植依旧会增加。 CF表示至尽全国各地的天气状况并不算完美，一些地区过度湿润，其他一些地区则过干，但是总体情况依旧良好。
CF的首席执行官Stephen Wilson在投资者会议上表示，“全球粮食和化肥市场正强劲增长。如果熬过了这段时间，这个春季的大收获将告诉我们总体情况多么良好。”
收益报告
公司将在周四盘后披露一季度财报。官方拒绝在发布前进行评论。 Thomson Reuters的分析师预计每股收益2.13美圆，比去年同期高出1.02美圆。营收相比去年同期增长59%，合7.51亿美圆。四季度---是CF上市以来最好的季度---每股收益2.38美圆，相比去年同期增长0.14美圆。销售增长62%,至8.525亿美圆。公司表示尽管经济不理想，但是农业业务看好。
如今全球粮食存量偏低，由于人口不断增长，需求也在增长。生活水准的提高同样带动了肉类需求增长，而饲养家禽需要粮食和饲料。这样的一种情况导致食物价格上扬，鼓励农民种植更多农产品，带动农药需求增长。通过玉米和其他农作物提炼出燃料无疑是火上浇油。
BMO Capital Markets的化工和化肥分析师Edwin Chee本月在化肥会议上表示，“可耕种面临有限。为了减轻物价高企给全球带来的压力，必须要增加供应，提高收成。”这也就意味着CF所生产的氮肥和磷肥前景越来越广阔。
公司在1946年成立时是一家化肥经纪商。在2005年上市。如今，公司的触角已伸向了海外。去年，公司收购了Keytrade 50%的股份，一家总部位于瑞士苏黎世的国际性化肥交易商。公司化肥产品已遍布65个国家。去年，公司被批准在秘鲁运营化肥。 CF表示公司在北美生产玉米的地带占有氮肥市场26%的份额，磷肥市场19%的份额。
核心业务预期
农业部表示美国将种植大约8600万英亩的玉米地，去年曾达到9360万英亩。政府认为种植玉米的高成本和代替品如大豆的强大诱惑导致了这样的一种情况。但是CF表示这些预期可能并不正确。公司认为，种植玉米的经济前景依旧良好。
如果资料正确，玉米种植面积依旧超过7900万英亩，与1997-2006年种植面积平均值相符。
铀提取可能
公司正试图寻找从磷肥提取铀的方法，如此可以将铀出售给公用事业部门。
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
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Investor's Business Daily
Fertilizer Maker Grows As Farmers Struggle To Meet Global Demand
Tuesday April 22, 6:08 pm ET
Kevin Harlin
Farmers may be planting less corn this year, but there's still plenty of fertile ground for agriculture companies like CF Industries.
The Deerfield, Ill.-based fertilizer maker and distributor put up a record fourth quarter as farmers applied its chemicals in the fall and stocked up for spring planting.
Even if those farmers plant fewer acres of corn, as the government projects, acreage for other crops should grow.
CF (NYSE:CF - News) said the weather so far hasn't been perfect everywhere -- it was too wet in some places, too dry in others -- but the overall picture is good.
"The worldwide market for grain, and the fertilizer to grow it, is robust," CF's chief executive, Stephen Wilson, told analysts in an investor conference earlier this month.
"If we can get by the current weather problems in a reasonable amount of time, the overall planting this spring should reflect that general strength."
Earnings Report
The company will report first-quarter results after the market closes Thursday.
Officials declined to comment in advance of earnings. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect earnings of $2.13 a share, up from $1.02 a year ago.
They expect almost $751 million in revenue, up 59% from the year-ago period.
In the fourth quarter -- CF's best as a public company -- it posted earnings of $2.38 a share, up from 14 cents a year earlier. Sales were up 62% to $852.5 million.
The company cited the usual factors that have made agribusinesses bulls amid a bearish economy. Global grain stocks are low, and demand is rising as populations grow. Rising wealth also creates demand for meat, which requires grains for feed.
That pushes food prices up, which encourages farmers to plant more and to use more fertilizers.
The ethanol boom, which is diverting corn and other grains for fuel, is merely adding more fuel to the fire.
"Arable landmass is finite," said Edwin Chee, a chemical and fertilizer analyst with BMO Capital Markets, speaking at a fertilizer conference this month. "And obviously, in order to alleviate these high prices that everybody is fearful about, you need to increase supply. You need to raise your yields."
That means more demand for the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers CF produces.
The company formed in 1946 as a cooperative fertilizer brokerage. Over the years, it expanded its distribution and branched into fertilizer manufacturing. It went public in 2005.
Now, it's branching out overseas. Last year, it bought a 50% stake in Keytrade, a Zurich, Switzerland-based global fertilizer trader. The company now markets fertilizers in 65 nations.
Also last year, the company won the rights to build fertilizer operations in Peru. It would use excess natural gas there to supply Peru and neighboring markets with nitrogen fertilizers. The plants could be running by 2012.
Back at home, CF says it's managing its distribution and storage networks efficiently and keeping plants running at or near capacity. That helps it deliver to American farmers quickly during times of peak demand.
CF says it has 26% of the nitrogen market and 19% of the phosphate market across the North American Corn Belt.
But it remains to be seen how the reduction in corn planting this year will affect CF.
Corn Production Forecasts
The Agriculture Department says U.S. farmers will plant about 86 million acres of corn, down from the peak last year of 93.6 million. The high cost for producing corn and the attractive prices for alternatives, such as soybeans, caused the shift, the government says.
But CF says those early projections could be off. The economics still favor higher corn planting, the company says.
Even if the lower figures hold, corn acreage will still far exceed the 79-million-acre average that farmers planted between 1997 and 2006.
And if farmers do plant less, they won't leave their fields idle. The government expects them to plant more wheat, sorghum and other crops that demand nitrogen.
Globally, demand is high for phosphate fertilizers too, and the company says supply is tight.
Prices for phosphate fertilizers have skyrocketed as the price for phosphate rock rises. And no major new capacity is expected in the next two or three years, the company says.
But CF has its own phosphate mine in Florida, which keeps its costs down. "We're in heady times in this business," CEO Wilson told analysts.
Uranium Possibilities
Long term, the company is looking for ways to extract uranium from its phosphate fertilizers, which it could then sell to utilities.
On the nitrogen side, the company is considering converting part of one of its nitrogen plants to coal, to reduce its reliance on natural gas in North America.
Credit Suisse analyst Mark Connelly thinks the company's might have been burned earlier this year by steep increases in the price for sulfur, another key ingredient in phosphate fertilizers.
CF has longer-term deals with some customers that lock in prices.
That might have crimped margins in the short term, Connelly wrote in an analyst note. But he thinks the long-term prospects are good.
"Phosphate demand remains high and inventories are low, which has helped producers raise prices," he wrote.
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