Barnett Shale and KWK

德州地大物博,天然气自然不会少.德州最大的天然气存储区被称为Barnett Shale,以Fort Worth为中心,周围20个郡都属于Barnett Shale.这块区域是美国天然气存量最大,最活跃的地区之一.在叶岩层下大约有26万亿立方英尺天然气,如此庞大的数量令原油和天然气公司为之疯狂,都想在这场角逐中分得一杯羹.

Quicksilver Resources(代号:KWK)在Barnett Shale上烧了不少钱.这家将勘探和生产集一身的企业专攻于”非传统”天然气,比如叶岩气,开采这种气体往往需要高科技的帮忙.

今年,Quicksilver公司8.75亿美圆的资金预算中有80%用于开发此盆地.去年Barnett Shale的产量已经增长200%,公司预计今年产量再翻一番.去年11月, Quicksilver通过卖出两个天然气存储池进行套现,所有其在Barnett的资金较充裕.公司维持在加拿大的天然气运营不变.

Quicksilver的投资关系副总裁Rick Buterbaugh表示,” Barnett毫无疑问是公司继续增长的动力.另外两个存储池(已卖出)不再能满足我们高增长的需求.”

自从2003年在Barnett Shale占得一席之地以来, Quicksilver已经获得了该地区255000英亩土地.但是仅仅开发了20%的土地,按照这样的进度至少需要十年进行开发.

Quicksilver是首批进入这片领域的拓荒者之一,紧随Devon Energy(代号:DVN)和Mitchell Energy之后. Devon Energy不仅是该地区的最早开发商,同时占有着支配地位. Mitchell Energy在2002年涉水该地域.整个盆地最大的生产商包括XTO Energy(代号:XTO), EOG Resources(代号:EOG)和Chesapeake Energy(代号:CHK).

KeyBanc Capital的分析师Jack Aydin将Quicksilver的管理层归为”先行者类型”.Aydin表示,”这些家伙永远都先他人一步进入,所以他们就能积累更多的土地进行开发.”

Oilman Frank Darden和Glenn, Thomas, Anne组建了Quicksilver,并在1999年通过合并Darden的被接管公司Mercury Exploration公开上市.

首席执行官Glenn Darden不久前告诉”石油与燃气投资者”,由于比大多数企业更早进入Barnett Shale,公司团队能够以低于500美圆/英亩和大约20%使用费的价格签定长期租界合同.而如今, Barnett Shale每英亩的租界费用超过10000美圆,而使用费涨至25%或者更多。

Quicksilver勘探产气区的专案已经初见成效.公司去年在Fort Worth盆地钻有244个水准井钻井,日产出131857立方英尺天然气,大约是2006年的三倍.今年,公司预计盆地的年产量翻一翻以上.2008年,基于13个钻探平台,公司计画钻出超过200口井.

水准井钻井,也就是Barnett Shale的主要钻井,相比垂直钻井成本更高,但是产量却又相对较高.分析师表示，最近几年的新科技和物价上涨令Barnett更具商业价值.最大的风险或许就是物价下跌.同时天气因素也将对价格产生暂时影响.Simmons Co的分析师David Kistler表示, “长远来看,直到2014年供应和需求将保持强劲状态.”

行业观察者称,天然气价格(现9.90美圆/百万英国热量单位)将会跌至低于5-6美圆. Aydin预计价格将在未来几年稳定在7-10美圆.Buterbaugh表示,即使价格跌至4美圆, Quicksilver至少能获得20%的回报,由于低产出成本和流动气高利润.但是,相比华尔街对天然气公司的成本结构预计,投资者似乎对物价更感兴趣.

四季度低于预期的天然气价格导致Quicksilve利润相比华尔街预期低了6美分.每股收益相比去年增长了50%,至18美分/股. Thomson Financial的分析师预计今年收益增长61% ,至1.13美圆一股,2009年增长25%.

分析师继续关注Quicksilver在西德州叶岩区Woodford-Barnett的工作进展.管理层告知分析师,他们对公司的进度”感到鼓舞”,预计在年底宣布部分成果.Quicksilver被报导称,在西德州已经获得了大约375000英亩土地.同时,在最近的分析师会议上, Quicksilver高管披露他们正收购两个新地区的土地,并且”非常有可能”成功.

公司预计今年将在新领域的开销达3500-5000万美圆,但是基于竞争关系,公司官员没有透露投资位址. Aydin表示,”他们说是北美洲.”

Natural Gas Producer Places Big Bet On Basin Around Fort Worth

They say everything in Texas is big, and that certainly goes for natural gas fields.

The biggest gas field in Texas is called the Barnett Shale. It spans 20 counties in and around the Fort Worth epicenter. It's one of the largest in the U.S. and the most active.

About 26 trillion cubic feet of gas embedded in underground shale is fueling a feeding frenzy among oil and gas companies angling to get a piece of the action.

Quicksilver Resources (NYSE:KWK - News) is betting most of its capital spending budget on the Barnett Shale play.

The exploration and production firm specializes in "unconventional" natural gas, such as shale gas, which uses fairly new horizontal technology to get it out of the ground.

About 80% of Quicksilver's $875 million capital budget this year will go to expand production in the basin. Production out of the Barnett Shale already grew 200% last year, and the company expects volume to double this year.

In November, Quicksilver sold two of its stakes in mature natural gas reservoirs in Michigan, Indiana and Kentucky, or about a third of its overall hand, so it would have more money to put into Barnett. It still retains a small natural gas operation in Canada.

"The Barnett is really the driver of continued growth at Quicksilver," said Rick Buterbaugh, vice president of investor relations at the Fort Worth-based firm. "The other two (sold reservoirs) no longer fit our high-growth profile."

Since it started acquiring a position in the Barnett Shale in 2003, Quicksilver has amassed about 255,000 acres. It has developed less than 20% of that, which should keep it busy for at least another decade.

Quicksilver was one of the early entrants into the field, following Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN - News), which had bought the play's first and dominant developer, Mitchell Energy, in 2002. The largest producers in the basin include XTO Energy (NYSE:XTO - News), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG - News) and Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK - News).

Jack Aydin, an analyst at KeyBanc Capital, calls Quicksilver's management "first-mover types."

"These people have always moved ahead of the crowd into areas where they could accumulate good acreage and do their homework," Aydin said.

Oilman Frank Darden and children Glenn, Thomas and Anne formed Quicksilver and took it public in 1999 by merging with the elder Darden's predecessor company, Mercury Exploration.

By getting into the Barnett Shale earlier than most, Quicksilver's team was able to negotiate long leases at an average of less than $500 per acre and with about 20% royalties, Chief Executive Glenn Darden told Oil and Gas Investor not long ago. (He was not available for comment.) Today, leases in the Barnett Shale often exceed $10,000 an acre and carry 25% or more in royalties.

Quicksilver's homework in scouting out productive spots for drilling is paying off. Quicksilver drilled 244 horizontal wells in the Fort Worth basin last year and produced 131,857 cubic feet of natural gas equivalent per day, about three times as much as in 2006.

This year, the company expects annual production from the basin to more than double. With 13 rigs in place, it plans to drill more than 200 wells in 2008.

Horizontal wells, such as those that are predominant in the Barnett Shale, are more costly to drill than vertical ones but are usually more productive.

New technology in recent years and higher commodity prices have made the Barnett play commercially feasible, analysts say.

The biggest risk is if commodity prices weaken. Variables such as the weather can affect short-term pricing.

"Longer term, it's a supply-demand story," said analyst David Kistler of Simmons Co. He says the forward strip "remains very strong out until 2014."

Industry observers say natural gas prices -- now near $9.90 per million British thermal units -- would have to drop to below $5 or $6 before drilling activity slows. Aydin expects prices to stay between $7 and $10 for the next few years.

Even if gas prices dropped as low as $4, Quicksilver would still generate at least a 20% return, says Buterbaugh. That's due to its low production costs and the high proportion of high-margin liquid gases it gets from the Barnett Shale, he says.

But investors seem more interested in commodity prices and Wall Street estimates than a gas company's cost structure. Lower-than-expected gas price realizations in the fourth quarter caused Quicksilver's profit to come in 6 cents below Wall Street's estimates.

Earnings in the quarter were still up 50% from last year to 18 cents a share, excluding proceeds from the sales of its mature properties in the North. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial forecast earnings to rise 61% this year to $1.13 a share, and 25% in 2009.

Analysts are keeping watch on news from Quicksilver about early work in the West Texas shale fields known as Woodford-Barnett. Management told analysts it was "encouraged" by Quicksilver's efforts and expected to report some results by year-end.

"If they are able to develop (West Texas), it would be an absolute home run," said Kistler, of Simmons Co. "The question is if they can get that gas to market economically. Every project has nuances."

Quicksilver is said to have accumulated about 375,000 net acres in the West Texas play.

Meanwhile, in a meeting with analysts recently, Quicksilver execs revealed that they are acquiring acreage in two newer areas that could hold "significant potential."

The firm is expected to spend $35 million to $50 million this year on the new plays, which officials wouldn't disclose by name or location for competitive reasons. "They said North America," according to Aydin.

Quicksilver Resources Acquires 19 Licenses in Horn River Basin of British Columbia; Updates First-Quarter 2008 Guidance