7/31
National Oilwell Varco(代號:NOV) 公布2008年第二季度业绩报告，其经稀释后的运营性每股收益为1.20美元，与去年同期的0.89美元相比增长34.8%；其总的每股收益为1.04美元，低于Sterne Agee预期的1.10美元，同样低于业界预期的1.13美元。该公司第二季度盈利状况非常理想，达到盈利预期区间的上限。公司宣布，收购The Grant Prideco的项目已经与4月21日完成。
券商Sterne Agee将其对NOV的股票评级由持有调升为买入，12个月的目标价位由80美元提高到95美元。这一目标价位分别对应2008年19.5倍的市盈率、 11.1倍的未计利息、税项、折旧及摊销的利润（EBITDA）系数、10.9倍的企业价值与EBITDA比值。该股目前的股价交易分别交易在上述三个指标的15.2倍、8.7倍、8.5倍上，而该公司所在行业这三个指标的平均数值分别是16.5倍、9.3倍、9.6倍。
该券商注意到，NOV的预订业务量呈现下降趋势，这是由于离岸钻井平台退出船坞所致，投资者都在观望这一情况对该公司造成的影响程度，等到风险得到完全释放。然而，北美地区新兴油田不断涌现致使该公司离岸钻井平台业务持续扩大，而且近期陆上钻井平台业务出现爆炸性增长，这是该券商始料未及的。
NOV第二季度的预订业务总共价值107.8亿美元，高于去年同期的72.02亿美元，增幅达到49.7%；同样高于上一季度的99亿美元，增幅为 8.9%。订单价值22.16亿美元，高于去年同期的17.65亿美元，增幅为25.6%；同样高于上一季度的20.29亿美元，增幅为9.2%。钻井平台技术部门以及石油业务与供应部门的盈利水平均有不同程度提升。
NOV陆上钻井平台业务出现爆发性增长，新增业务中大多数来自于新成立的油页岩钻探商。海底钻探船设备以及半潜式钻探机的市场需求仍然保持高位，而自升式钻探塔台设备的市场需求仍然保持平稳，高性能自升式钻探塔台的市场需求仍然保持高速增长状态。
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Sterne Agee：NOV前程似锦
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Friedman B&R看好SWN
7/29
券商Friedman，Billings & Ramsey将其对Southwestern Energy(代號:SWN)的股票评级调升为强于大盘。
在过去21个交易日中，SWN股价累计跌幅远远超过同行业平均水平，使其股价的估值水平再一次显现出诱人的投资价值。此外，阿肯色州石油与天然气委员会近期公布的数据表明，SWN旗下的两个油气田每天的产量超过500万立方英尺，表明该公司的产能得到进一步提高。
因此，该券商认为SWN的油页岩定价实力潜力无穷，在产能的改进速率方面已经超过业界同行。该股近期的调整以及基本面估值水平的改善为投资者提供了一个非常具有吸引力的买入良机，对未来基本面的进一步提升以及油页岩产量提高的预期将使其股价持续上扬。该券商将其对SWN的目标价位由40美元提高到43美元以反映其净资产价值。
自7月2日以来，随着大盘屡屡出现暴跌，SWN的股价累计下跌36%，而同期SIG Oil Exploration & Production Index(代號:EPX)累计下跌28%，天然气价格累计下跌27%。该股近期的大幅回调使估值水平重新回到合理偏低的区域，而从技术上来看股价超卖情况严重。
调整过后，SWN目前的股价交易在未来12个月8.3倍的企业价值与未计利息、税项、摊销与折旧的利润（EBITDA）比值上，同时也低于该券商预期的每股43美元的净资产价值。
此外，正在进行的增产计划与到2008年年底预期中的新增扩张计划使得SWN在Fayetteville Shale地区的业务能够保持持续增长，这将有助于该公司增强定价能力，同时也使业绩增长前景更为切实，也更加透明。
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Maxwell's Chinese Deal
厦门金龙汽车
根据金龙汽车2007年年报显示，公司继续保持近三年来的强势增长态势。继2006年度公司客车销量首次突破4万辆，大中型客车市场占有率达到26.3%，继续保持在大中型客车行业的优势地位；轻型客车由于出口的增长，增幅达54.2%。
- Chinese Bus Manufacturer Selects Maxwell Technologies' BOOSTCAP(R) Ultracapacitors for Hybrid Transit BusesPR Newswire(Tue 8:00am)
China's Cars, Accelerating A Global Demand for Fuel http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...
Dan Fitzpatrick：XTO巨量觸底企穩 7/29
XTO Energy(代號:XTO)进入7月以来股价呈现自由落体，不过在1月间45.56美元的低点附近有获得支撑的迹象，上周五股价天量收平，暂时可以看作是止跌企稳的信号。分析师预计这一重要支撑位附近有可能吸引到抄底资金介入，股价有望反弹重回50美元上方。
不过值得注意的是，该股已经离200日移动平均线非常遥远了，从技术上来说随时可能触发报复性的超跌反弹，参考近来金融类个股的走势，预期中的反弹有可能同样极具爆发力。分析师建议抢反弹的投资者将止损位设定在1月间低点的下方。
Credit Suisse Comments 7/28
Stock Attractive, Recent Deals Designed to Extend Growth, Not to Hide Problems, Lowering Estimates and TP to $67 (from $78)
• Acquisitions Continue, Shares Attractive: XTO's Q2 report was slightly better than expected on price, while production and operating costs were generally in-line with our expectations. XTO's total cost structure rose 6% qtr/qtr given sharp increase in the DD&A rate (+8% qtr/qtr to $2.07 per Mcfe), reflecting the numerous acquisitions made year-to-date. Likewise, XTO announced 2 new deal packages totaling $2.1B, which puts the year-to-date deal total at $10.6B for 2.3 Tcfe of proved reserves ($4.60 per Mcfe) and 440 MMcfe/d of production ($24.0k per Mcfepd). The significant premium paid over XTO's trading multiples ($3.10 per Mcfe and $17.9k per Mcfepd) clearly captures the value assigned to reserve upside (6-8 Tcfe) across the acquired acreage (1.4MM net acres). XTO stated it could do another $1.0B of deals by year-end, but noted the recent string of deals does not mark a shift away from its organic growth model. A focus on development is likely to return in 2009 (read on). With the shares 35% off recent highs and trading at a 16% discount to proved (1P) NAV, we believe XTO currently presents an attractive investment opportunity.
• Reduce EPS and Net Asset Value: We are reducing our 2008/2009 EPS estimates by 6% and 11% to $4.48/$5.49 from $4.75/$6.19 to reflect the ~$1.25B equity offering, a higher DD&A rate and higher interest expense partially offset by stronger production. Our NAV falls to $84 (from $87) as we are not including any unbooked reserve potential tied to the recent $2.1B of transactions. We are lowering our target price to $67 (from $78), which is now based on a 20% NAV discount (vs. 10% prior) to reflect restrained market appreciation for unproved reserves.
Our NAV is based on $11.00 per MMBtu gas in 2008, $9.50 in 2009 and $9.00 longterm and moves about 11% for every $1.00 per MMBtu swing in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas prices."
Monday, July 28, 2008
中国焦煤企业风景独好
2008年07月28日
尽管国际市场上的煤炭现货价格上半年上涨了近一倍，但中国的煤炭上市企业却由于国家为调控供应而出台的限价措施在市场上表现滞后。
由于对价格控制风险的担忧，中国产量最大的综合性煤炭生产商中国神华(China Shenhua Energy)的H股今年以来累计下跌了38%，而排在第二位的中煤能源(China Coal Energy)下跌了43%。中国是全球最大的煤炭消费国。
分析师表示，在政府上周四宣布人为限制主要港口的现货价格，给国内居高不下的电煤价格降温后，这些股票近期可能还会进一步走低。
这些新的措施影响到了电煤生产商，不过，焦煤生产商并未受到波及。焦煤是金属加工的要素。
在香港上市的恒鼎实业(Hidili Industry International Development)的表现强于电煤同行和恒生指数。今年以来恒生指数的跌幅为18%。
总部位于四川的恒鼎实业去年9月上市，2008年累计下跌了10%。但许多分析师表示，由于预计焦煤价格将继续攀升和具有吸引力的估值，现在是逢低买进该股的好机会。
四位跟踪该公司的分析师对该股的平均目标价为18.69港元（约合2.40美元），比上周五10.76港元的收盘价高出了74%。
大华继显(UOB KayHian)分析师Karen Li说，由于目前市场供应紧张的局面，我们看好中国的焦煤行业。相信11港元上下是买进该股的良机。
恒鼎实业通过首次公开募股(IPO)筹集了5.254亿美元资金。该公司向中国南部及西部的钢铁公司供应煤炭，其中包括攀枝花钢铁（集团）公司 (Panzhihua Iron & Steel (Group) Co.)和柳州钢铁（集团）公司(Liuzhou Iron & Steel (Group) Co.)。分析师称，恒鼎实业因焦煤价格的上涨而具有吸引力。由于国内外市场需求强劲，今年上半年焦煤的价格几乎上涨了一倍。
恒鼎实业董事会秘书徐辉说，上半年的焦煤价格比去年同期上涨了90%，在6月底时达到了每吨人民币1,500-1,600元（约合220-235美元）。他没有给出对下半年价格走势的预测。
山西焦煤集团(Shanxi Coking Coal Group)副总经理刘建中本月初向国有媒体表示，他预计焦煤价格在下半年每吨将上涨人民币200-300元。山西焦煤集团是中国产量最大的焦煤生产商。
煤炭价格可能还将得到政府为减少事故伤亡人数，打击小煤窑举措的支撑。
新华社本月报导，政府计划关闭4,000多座小煤窑，使运营的煤窑总数从目前的约16,000座降至2010年的不到10,000座。新华社称，在这其中，约有90%的焦煤矿被认为是小煤窑，而小煤窑的安全标准要大大低于更为正规的大煤矿。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，恒鼎实业低迷的股价和与电煤生产商的差异为投资者买进该股提供了良机。
高盛分析师沈松6月底在研究报告中写道，焦煤相对于电煤的主要优势在于需求情况更好，政府进行价格控制的风险更低。他说，我们认为恒鼎实业的股价低迷是鉴于政府对电煤进行价格控制的风险溢价较高。
分析师表示，由于国内金属市场的情况，中国政府干预焦煤行业的可能性不大。
野村证券(Nomura)分析师Donovan Huang说，电价的设定由政府调控，目的是为了抑制中国国内的通货膨胀。而由于中国钢铁价格的市场化程度较高，焦煤生产商面临的政府价格控制风险较低。
为了保护使用电煤的发电厂的盈利能力，北京上个月对电煤实行了临时限价措施。中国的电煤生产商不能以高于6月19日定价的价格出售电煤。
分析师称，除了焦煤市场一派繁荣之外，恒鼎实业具有吸引力的另一个原因还在于公司的收购计划。恒鼎实业有意通过收购贵州省西部的煤矿提高储量。
该公司表示，计划到2011年时将煤炭产量提高到800万吨，是今年320吨产量目标的两倍以上。该公司2007年的产量为227万吨。
鉴于这些预期，分析师普遍看好恒鼎实业今后两年的盈利前景。高盛预计，由于销量和销售价格双双走高，恒鼎实业的净利润今年将增长一倍以上，2009年的增幅将达到75%。
恒鼎实业2007年的净利润较前一年增长了五倍多，达到了人民币5.703亿元。
恒鼎实业的估值也低于同行。汤姆森-路透(Thomson Reuters Corp.)称，该股基于2008年预期收益的市盈率约为16.11倍，而中国神华和中煤能源的市盈率分别为18.95倍和17.08倍。
尽管如此，分析师也表示，对原材料涨价导致中国钢铁行业增长减速的担忧可能不利于恒鼎实业股票近期的表现。
高盛表示，如果钢铁产量的增势明显放缓，预计焦煤价格将会回落。
花旗集团(Citigroup)预计，中国的钢铁产量明年将达到6.40亿吨，比2008年5.53亿吨的预期产量增长16%。中国在全球钢铁需求量中所占的比例略高于三分之一。
恒鼎实业董事会秘书徐辉说，他预计中国的钢铁产量在2010年前将保持强劲增长，因为我们相信中国在今后两年里将继续保持经济高速增长。
Sunday, July 27, 2008
今年黄金价格预期将上涨30%之多,2009年将守稳
路透伦敦7月24日电---路透调查周四显示,今年黄金的平均价格将上涨30%以上,2009年则将守住今年的涨幅,因金融风险不断,引发投资者避险买兴.
受访的40位分析师和交易商预估中值为,2008年黄金的价格将在每盎司930美元,较2007年696.95美元的均价涨了30%以上.
该次调查所获得的预估值较1月时预期的850.00美元上涨了逾9%.
现货金
不过分析师对2008年和2009年金价的预估范围之大,也反映了整个初级商品市场的高度波动性.分析师对2008年的预估值介于889至1,056美元,2009年介于775-1,250美元.
分析师对2009年金价均值的预估落在每盎司930美元.
预期白银今年的价格会涨30%以上,2009年会有所回落.
黄金预期会继续自其他市场引发的疑虑中获益,金融市场的波动,日益浓重的通膨疑虑以及地缘政治局势也将会带来支撑.
不过现货需求的降低也是造成价格可能回落的原因之一."价格较高波动性较大,以及经济成长放缓,均打压了黄金珠宝商的需求,尤其是对价格极度敏感的那些商人,如印度."巴克莱资本分析师Suki Cooper说道.
"一旦价格开始稳定,那麽预期买家会习惯这样的高价格,需求也会慢慢回升."
市场对美元明年可能走强的预测,也给黄金明年的涨势投下阴影.
分析师对白银今年价格的预估中值为每盎司17.50美元,较2007年均价上涨了近三分之一,1月调查时预期为13.37.
"白银料会追随金价走高,不过基本面并不能带来支撑.矿产量增加,且该市场更多是受到工业驱动,在经济放缓之际需求定会受到冲击."渣打银行分析师史密斯说道.
铂金价格08年预计跳涨逾50%,因南非供应问题令人担忧
路透伦敦7月24日电---路透调查显示,预计铂金(白金)价格2008年将上涨逾50%,因对主要生产国南非的供应忧虑推高其价格.
过去一个月,路透对40位分析师和交易商的调查显示,对2008年现货铂金价格的预期中值为每盎司2,000美元,比2007年均价1,304美元上涨53%.
预计明年铂金价格将续涨至每盎司2,024.50美元.该预测中值比路透年初调查时分析师预测的1,522.50美元高出30%以上.
"在所有贵金属中,铂金市场基本面最强劲,尤其是库存较低,"巴克莱资本国际分析师Suki Cooper称,"我们相信价格有进一步涨至新高的潜力."
铂金价格上涨的主要驱动因素是南非供应中断.南非铂金产量占世界产量的五分之四.
分析师称,供应中断的忧虑至少会使其价格明年保持高位.受访分析师给出的今年价格最高预估值为2,400美元.
预期中值显示,2008年铂金供应缺口将达467,500盎司,2009年将达300,000盎司.
钯金价格预计也将上涨,受益于南非电力短缺,以及俄罗斯供应可能减少.
路透调查的分析师预计2008年钯金价格将达448美元,比2007年353.41的水平上涨27%.这些分析师还补充称,预计2009年钯金均价将达450美元.
高通与诺基亚之间的协议可能推升高通股价再涨30%
路透纽约7月25日电---芬兰手机制造商诺基亚(NOK1V.HE: 行情)及美国高通(Qualcomm)(QCOM.O: 行情)之间一场旷日持久的纠纷的结束,令高通成为先进无线科技的重要提供商,并可能推升其股价再涨30%,分析师表示.
分析师称,尽管财务条款尚未曝光,且高通股价在过去两个交易日已攀升20%,但投资者尚未完全感受到两家公司之间的协议所带来的长期益处,这一协议甚至可能促使两大公司之间达成一笔晶片(芯片)供给交易.
尽管高通最近发布的全年财测低于华尔街预期,但分析师本周仍调升了高通的股价目标,称法律风险减少、可能达成的晶片交易以及未来科技的前景均有利于高通.
德意志银行分析师Brian Modoff认为,诺基亚计划认可高通新兴高速手机科技相关的专利技术非常重要,例如长期演进(Long-Term-Evolution)技术,世界上许多大型运营商均计划在2010年左右采用这一技术.
"这意味着诺基亚目前认为高通的专利技术对于(下一代)标准来说非常关键."Modoff表示,他在协议达成後将其对高通的股价目标调升至70美元.
高通股价周三在交易达成前收报44.82美元,但周五收报54.45美元.
Friday, July 25, 2008
IBD：St. Jude心脏植入器潜力无限
7/25
几乎人人都在肥皂剧中看到过这种场景：外科医生费力地挥动双手，高声喊道：“清醒！”并对已经休克的病人进行电击治疗。这一幕我们已经屡见不鲜并市场怀疑其真实性。但是心脏电击对于治疗心律失常只是治标不治本，而目前有220万美国人就患有心律失常病症，一旦救治不及时就会有致命打击。而体内电击设备，即所谓的植入式心律转复除颤器（ICD）就是治疗心律失常的最新仪器。St. Jude Medical(代號:STJ)就是一家生产ICD的公司，作为一家医疗产品集团，公司产品包括心脏节律管理 (CRM)、心房震动仪（AF）等，而主打产品就是ICD，约占到公司07年销售额的35% 。
在过去几年中，St. Jude Medical收购了许多小型医疗生产商以扩大差评组合，目前公司的医疗技术与行业最大竞争者不相上下。ThinkPanmure分析师Stephan Ogilvie表示：“St. Jude Medical拥有最好的产品组合，并有能力在成熟市场中开拓业务、获得收益。”公司近期雇佣了450名新员工进行市场销售，效果显著。
近几年，医疗仪器行业的撤回事件屡屡发生，未来避免产品撤回风险，公司的ICD产品往往要通过医生和医院的反复使用才能在市场上销售。随着四大主打产品二季度大卖，公司二季度每股收益上涨了33%至0.60美元；营收上涨了20%至11.4亿美元。受到外汇市场有子昂，公司在海外市场的销售额上涨至 6400万美元。而影响公司海外销售额的两大主要货币就是欧元和日元。
公司CEO Daniel Starks表示：“海外市场的业绩极为出色，尤其在ICD销售方面，美国和国际市场的表现引人瞩目。”公司的诊断、治疗和查询心脏疾病仪器组合本季度销售额上涨了35%至1.35亿美元。公司预计08年底这个市场将超过15亿美元。“St. Jude在AF产品方面拥有领先地位，这在我们08年上半年32%的业绩增长率中有明显体现。”
公司表示将在今年年底发行下一代椎板脊髓刺激仪器，而公司的心脏仪器仍将保持强劲业绩，预测营收将达到7.12亿美元。公司的心血管产品业绩将上涨14% 至2.28亿美元。但是ICD仍然是公司的掌上明珠，创造着4.06亿美元的营收。美国市场占到ICD业绩增长的62% 。预计今年全球ICD市场将达到64亿美元，同比为57.8亿美元，09年将达到70亿美元。分析师表示：“我们预计全球植入式心脏仪器的业绩增长率将超过20%以上。”
但是，ICD的国内市场仍然有待被唤醒。公司在获得国内市场份额方面仍然有一段路要走。ICD专利权范围仍然较小，仅为25% 。分析师预计，市场在08、09年出现再增长之前，仍将经历一段低迷时期。“ICD专利范围狭窄与全球需求巨大形成鲜明对比，我们预期St. Jude将在以后几个季度中继续开拓这个潜力无限的大市场。”
Investor's Business Daily
Earnings A Shot In The Arm For Company That Keeps Hearts Beating
Thursday July 24, 6:06 pm ET
Brad Kelly Almost everyone has watched that dramatic scene on television, where the doctor, paddles in hand, yells out "Clear!" and shocks the patient back to life.
The scene may seem over-the-top and unrealistic, but defibrillation, or shock, can be the only way to stop potentially lethal heart arrhythmias before they kill.
Arrhythmias are disorders of the regular rhythmic beating of the heart and they're common with about 2.2 million Americans living with the condition, according to the American Heart Association.
Common forms of arrhythmias -- known as atrial fibrillation -- can be treated with blood thinners, but more severe cases, such as ventricular fibrillation, are fatal if not rapidly reversed by defibrillation.
Internal shocking devices, known as implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD), could provide the best defense against sudden cardiac arrest. St. Jude Medical (NYSE:STJ - News) is one of the world's top ICD manufacturers.
The St. Paul, Minn.-based medical device maker operates four business segments: cardiac rhythm management (CRM), atrial fibrillation (AF), cardiovascular and neuromodulation.
Key Products
The company's key products include pacemakers, EP catheters, vascular closure devices, surgical heart valves and, of course, ICDs, which accounted for about 35% of the company's sales in 2007.
Over the past several years, St. Jude acquired smaller players to bolster its product portfolio, and now its technologies are on par with one of its larger competitors, medical behemoth Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ - News), says Stephan Ogilvie, an analyst at ThinkPanmure.
"St. Jude has the best product portfolio and its ability to execute in very mature markets is now paying off," Ogilvie said.
The company aggressively hired 450 new personnel to its international sales force, which also will start bearing fruit, he added.
The medical device industry has been plagued by major recalls in recent years. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration recalled more than 20 devices last year alone because they could cause serious health problems.
To reduce risks tied to device recalls, physicians and hospitals use all three primary ICD providers, St. Jude, Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX - News) and Medtronic (NYSE:MDT - News), in their product rotation, William Blair & Co. analyst Benjamin Andrew says.
The ailing sector got a much-needed shot in the arm after St. Jude reported strong second-quarter results.
The company's earnings jumped 33% to 60 cents a share ex items, topping views by a nickel. Revenue rose 20% to $1.14 billion during the quarter as sales grew in all four product categories.
The medical device maker said overall sales got a $64 million boost from favorable foreign currency exchanges. The two main currencies influencing its operations are the euro and the yen.
"These are outstanding results across the board ... especially strong ICD sales both in the U.S. and internationally," St. Jude CEO Daniel Starks said in a post-earnings conference call.
Sales of atrial fibrillation products, which diagnose, treat and seek a cure for the most common cardiac arrhythmia, rose 35% to $135 million.
The company estimates the market for devices used in electrophysiology procedures will be more than $1.5 billion by the end of 2008 and that it will grow at a mid- to upper-teens rate.
"This implies that over the next five to seven years the market for AF-related products will be as large as for those for the pacemaker market," Starks said. "St. Jude has the leading program in AF, reflected by our 32% growth in the first half of 2008."
The neuromodulation products, such as spinal cord stimulation, were up 17% to $61 million.
St. Jude confirmed that by the end of this year it will launch its next generation lamina spinal cord stimulator, the smallest device of its kind on the market.
The company continues to see strong sales of its cardiac devices, underscored by CRM revenue of $712 million, up 20% from a year ago.
Also, its cardiovascular segment, which includes mechanical heart valves, grew 14% to $228 million.
Sales of pacemakers rose 14% to $306 million.
But ICDs remain St. Jude's top-selling products. The device generated $406 million in revenue, up 24%. The U.S. market accounted for 62% of that growth.
The global ICD market is expected to reach $6.4 billion this year, up from $5.78 billion in 2007, and almost $7 billion in 2009, according to William Blair & Co.
ICDs are considered effective in fighting cardiac arrest more than 90% of the time, an astounding success for a condition that few survived as recently as 15 years ago.
The life-saving feature of ICDs has allowed St. Jude to ride the wave of market growth, Andrew says.
"We believe the global implantable defibrillator market is growing in the mid- to high-single digits and that St. Jude took two or three points of market share in the first half," he said.
However, there is still a wait for a rebound in the domestic ICD market, Andrew says, and St. Jude faces additional pressure to rapidly take share in order to meet its growth expectations.
The pool of patients with an ICD remains lightly penetrated, about 25%, in the U.S., Andrew says.
The market will remain sluggish for several quarters before modestly reaccelerating late in 2008 and into 2009, he added.
"Light penetration rates and the growing acceptance of ICDs' life-saving capability have allowed this segment of the worldwide market to grow at rates higher than 20%," Andrew said. "We expect St. Jude will continue to generate strong growth in this market in the coming quarters."
Japanese Approval
The Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare just approved St. Jude's cardiac rhythm technology with defibrillator back-up devices, helping to buoy its product portfolio.
There exists significant room to increase penetration rates in several countries, Andrew says.
A strong geographic footprint has helped many U.S.-based companies weather the storm of the current economic downturn. But Ogilvie says the health care industry is counter-cyclical.
"St. Jude's products are not used in elective procedures. Most are essential to a patient's survival," he said. "People don't tend to skimp when it comes to their health even if we're in a recession."
St. Jude raised its full-year profit forecast to $2.28-$2.33 a share, up from a prior outlook of $2.15-$2.20. For the third quarter, it sees profit of 56 cents to 58 cents a share, above Wall Street's view of 53 cents.
首诺在中国-首诺公司亚太区尼龙66业务经理：赵先生
2004-12-03
本刊：,请您给我们读者简单介绍首诺公司与孟山都公司和陶氏化学的关系?
赵：首诺公司是于1997年分拆独立上市的前孟山都公司化学部门, 所以说, 首诺公司只有7岁, 却已有100多年的历史。分拆独立之后,首诺公司延续并发展了前孟山都公司的化学业务, 包括功能性产品业务平台和尼龙业务平台。在尼龙业务平台中, 我们拥有晴纶、工业纤维、 地毯、中间体及塑料聚合物部门。 在1999年, 首诺公司将塑料聚合物部门旗下的Vydyne工程塑料的市场销售职能转给其策略联盟-陶氏化学, 而生产职能由首诺公司继续保留。 在2002年, 双方同意由首诺公司收回市场销售职能, 直接为广大的用户提供服务。
本刊：能否详细介绍一下首诺公司的尼龙业务?
赵：首诺公司尼龙业务平台专注于尼龙66的生产销售, 是世界第二大尼龙66生产厂家, 拥有世界上最大的一体化尼龙生产装置。该装置由天然气、苯和丙稀开始, 全程一体化生产, 直至Vydyne尼龙66工程塑料被包装、分运，毋需外购中间体原料,完全自我掌控。这样就从技术上保证了产品质量的一致性和连续性, 也保证了供应的稳定性。
本刊：那首诺公司的Vydyne尼龙66工程塑料都有哪些应用领域呢?
赵：我想中国用户对首诺公司的通用级规格Vydyne21SPC 在尼龙扎带、线圈骨架等电子电气及日用品方面的应用已经比较熟悉了。 其实, 首诺公司还生产销售用于汽车市场的复合改性规格的Vydyne尼龙66, 包括玻纤增强、矿粉填充、 高耐热、耐水解等等,都已得到欧美几大车厂, 如通用汽车、 福特及戴姆勒-克莱斯勒等给予的认证, 广泛应用于汽车引擎室、内饰、外饰中的各种部件。
本刊：中国是潜在的大市场，首诺公司对中国这个大市场有何展望?
赵：我们认为中国是一个很有发展潜力的市场,首诺公司非常看好这里, 对于在中国的业务发展我们很有信心. 首诺公司希望能通过提供优秀的产品与服务, 同广大的中国用户一起成长发展。
本刊：请问首诺公司有没有计划在中国投资?
赵：如果在中国的市场成长到一定阶段, 我们会在中国投资建厂, 以提供更便捷的服务给广大中国用户。
本刊：请问首诺公司Vydyne工程塑料的销售网络是通过经销商经营还是直接销售?
赵：我们也有直接服务于一些全球性的客户, 但由于人力资源及其它各方面的限制, 大多数情况下我们是请一些专业的经销商伙伴如东江、耐特和佳皇来代表首诺公司为客户提供服务, 以为我们的客户带来沟通、交易、物流等各方面的便利。
本刊：您如何评估此次原油价格大幅上扬对尼龙66的影响?
赵：这次原油价格在过去几个月间已大幅上涨了几十个百分点, 可尼龙66的关键上游原材料天然气、苯、丙稀和丁稀等却已分别上涨了几倍,。因此, 现有尼龙66这几十个百分点的涨幅远远不能吸收上游原材料价格上升所带来的影响。
本刊：您是说尼龙66 的价格仍将有继续上升的空间?
赵：是的, 如果相关上游原材料的价格依旧踞高不下。 以往与尼龙66价格相近的聚碳酸酯现在已高出尼龙66数百美元每吨, 而过去几十年来一直比尼龙66价位低的尼龙6现已反超尼龙66。可见现有尼龙66的价格水准已严重背离其合理价格区间, 并对尼龙66生产厂家的长期投资计划造成负面影响。在涨价的问题上,我们认为尼龙66 的价格会在近期迅速上升至合理水平。
本刊：感谢赵先生百忙之中接受中国塑料商务网的采访，预祝美国首诺公司尼龙66在中国的业务蒸蒸日上、一帆风顺。
赵：谢谢，就此机会对普拉司商务网络有限公司为我们提供信息和建立业内交流等平台服务表示感谢，我们将继续与贵公司合作，共同为中国市场提供信息、技术等多方面服务。
Solutia公司与三家中国企业签约
美国密苏里州CLAYTON消息（2008年7月8日）受市场需求强劲的推动—包括中国在内，北美第二大尼龙6/6生产商Solutia Inc.公司正在继续扩大其位于美国佛罗里达州Pensacola工厂的产能。
这家总部位于美国密苏里州圣路易斯的公司在6月23日举行的某重要活动中与三家中国客户签约。
在美国密苏里州Clayton的丽嘉酒店召开的贸易代表团会议上会见中国国家副总理王岐山和商务部副部长马秀红时，Solutia公司CEO Jeffery Quinn与三家中国企业签署了合约，价值1.82亿美元（xx00万元人民币）。
这些合约包括：
•与总部位于广州的金发科技股份有限公司签署了一份价值8400万美元（5.754亿元人民币）的合约；
•与总部位于浙江杭州的永昌尼龙有限公司签署了一份价值5600万美元（3.836亿元人民币）的合约；
•与总部设于辽宁营口的银珠化纺集团有限公司签署了一份价值4200万美元（2.877亿元人民币）的合约。
为响应中国等国家不断增长的业务需求，该公司继续将Pensacola工厂的人造短纤维产能转为尼龙树脂产能。最近的尼龙树脂扩能始于4月，将为该厂新增68000吨的产能。
Jenkins在接受电话采访时说：“过去两年，我们为该厂新增了总计14万吨的产能。”
他说，此次扩能不会对雇员产生影响。Solutia公司在Pensacola约有1000名全职雇员和500名合同工。
Solutia公司于6月20日在Pensacola工厂接待了一个30人的中国代表团，包括来自金发科技和银珠化纺的管理者。Pensacola工厂生产的尼龙6/6销往海外市场。该公司的物流战略是利用出口后返程中国的空货船运输树脂到中国。
Jenkins说，“我们正在着重完善物流”，力争在国外市场保持竞争力，特别是在能源与运费成本不断上升的情况下。
Jenkins预测说，2006－2011年间，公司将约有60%的总销售增长来自中国。也就是说，到2011年，其在华总销售将达4.39亿美元（30亿元人民币），高于2006年的1.66亿美元（13.3亿元人民币），《圣路易邮报》在一则报道中援引了Quinn的话。
Solutia公司高级副总裁兼Solutia公司的Integrated Nylon子公司总裁Jonathan Wright在一份新闻稿中说：“中国经济的蓬勃发展—特别是制造领域—推动了Solutia公司的增长，亚洲对我们产品的需求日益增长，特别是Vydyne PA66。”
该公司公布的全球年销售额为38亿美元（260亿元人民币）。2007年，其在亚洲的销售额为8.87亿美元（67.6亿元人民币）。
Solutia公司在华有156名雇员，包括于9月在苏州建成的一座挤出工厂的员工。苏州工厂现有的一条挤出生产线，生产Saflex夹层产品，有员工100人。
Goldman note - buy on weakness
Synchronoss Technologies Inc. (SNCR): 3G iPhone activations move in-store: implications mixed June 10, 2008
What's changed
The widely anticipated 3G iPhone release was accompanied by a shift in the retail activation dynamics for the handset, moving the process in-store (either at AT&T or Apple locations) and away from the consumer-initiated, at-home iTunes application used for the 2.5G launch.
Implications
The change in activation procedure limits upside potential to 2H2008 as Synchronoss’ platform will not, in our view, support the in-store retail activations; however, consistent with our view after our May 9 meetings with management, we believe this scenario was well contemplated in the company’s revised 2008 guidance. Importantly, with AT&T’s disclosure that the move to in-store activations was directly related to a very broad-based decision to subsidize the iPhone in the US, we continue to believe the result is completely unrelated to Synchronoss’ performance/pricing for on-line activation support. While we are reducing our above-consensus upside scenario to estimates, we continue to believe that the reason to buy the stock remains outside of the iPhone, where business momentum remains robust. We retain our Buy rating and would use near-term volatility in the shares as opportunistic entry points.
Valuation
Our 6-month price target, based on five equally weighted multiple-based metrics, remains $19 as we believe Synchronoss’ non-iPhone business is worth at least this on a stand-alone basis given its growth dynamics. Our estimate changes account for lower iPhone revenue but we also raise our non-iPhone revenues. Our price target implies a 23x 2009E EPS (ex-ESOs) of $0.84, implying a 1.0x PEG vs. our normalized 24% earnings growth in 2010 when the shift in iPhone revenue contributions fully anniversaries. We believe this is an appropriate approach to valuation at this point.
Key risks
iPhone volume and pricing; new contract execution.
Credit Suisse says buy CE on dip
According to Credit Suisse analyst:
the 11% sell-off in CE is a wild overreaction tied to the lack of a "beat and raise" from CE (we only got the beat) and has resulted in a compelling opportunity to get in this high quality name at a discount. Based on our newly revised estimates (see full report), CE currently trades at 9.9X 2008 EPS and 9.3X our 2009 EPS-both the lowest in our coverage universe, as well as 6.5X 2008 EBITDA and 6.3X 2009 EBITDA-second lowest only to FOE in our coverage universe. Given that CE should put up double digit EPS growth for the next few years and has some of the highest returns in the group, this doesn't make sense and we reiterate our outperform rating.
• With regard to earnings, following July 22nd 2Q conference call, we are updating our model to reflect the $0.11 beat in 2Q vs. our estimate as well as the business trends discussed on the call. We are conservatively reducing our 2008 estimate from $4.09 to $4.00 to reflect the difficult economic and raw material environment highlighted by management. We appreciate management's more conservative stance but have a very tough time seeing how CE will not reach/exceed our newly revised estimate (despite their conservative guidance of $3.60-3.85). Some of the trends/assumptions our new estimate reflects include:
• Slightly slower growth in Advanced Engineered Materials and its equity affiliates - the company indicated that the strong 8% volume growth in AEM seen this quarter may have been tied to pre-buying by customers ahead of announced price increases, and as a result, may negatively impact volumes in 3Q. We have therefore lowered our top-line and equity earnings assumptions for this segment in the second half.
• Pricing declines and lower margins in Acetyl Intermediates - we have slightly reduced our pricing and margin assumptions for this business, as pricing in 2Q benefited from planned and unplanned outages by competitors and with a previously mothballed plant coming bank on line in China, CE expects pricing to trend back toward more normal levels moving forward given the continued demand in the region, this may be overly conservative but given the lack of clarity we believe it is reasonable to be conservative.
• Lower margins in Industrial and Consumer Specialties - owing to higher raw material and energy costs, we have lowered our margin assumptions for these two businesses.
• For 2009, we are maintaining our EPS estimate at $4.28 which reflects slightly more modest margin assumptions offset by a lower share count. Finally, for 2010, we are raising our estimate from $4.47 to $4.61 as CE should benefit from a lower share count and a slightly higher revenue base that should see incremental leverage when the margins in some of their businesses start to return.
塞拉尼斯公司发布创纪录二季度财报
泰科纳超高分子量聚乙烯装置在南京投产
塞拉尼斯公司是生产增值工业化学品的全球综合化工企业。我们的多数产品都拥有全球数一数二的市场地位。我们是全球最大的乙酰基(acetyl group)产品生产商之一，这类中间体化学品几乎在所有主要产业都有应用。同时我们还是全球领先的高性能工程塑料生产商。我们的业务遍布北美(40%)、欧洲(35%)和亚洲(25%)。
中国将引领全球醋酸需求快速增长
本周(7月21-25日)醋酸酯市场走势及后期分析
7月25日华南冰醋酸市场动态
受制集团股权激励 江苏索普资产注入无望 600746
不同酯化度醋酸纖維素的用途
Thursday, July 24, 2008
IBD看好AZZ
7/24
AZZ incorporated(代號:AZZ) 作为一家电气器材制造商，一季度28%的利润率这着实令分析师感到惊诧，因为实际上没有人指望公司能够交出如此亮丽的成绩，然而电镀层的主要材料——锌 ——开始出现价格滑落，尽管如此，AZZ仍然能够保证公司股票的溢价不变。强劲的市场需求使得AZZ在面对大客户时，仍然能够维持较高的产品价格。公司拥有两大核心业务：一是为石化、电子和电信公司提供镀锌服务，二是制造供电系统的相关产品。公司还为U-Haul拖车提供镀锌服务。
Next Generation 分析师Ned Borland表示：“AZZ的任务就是为有需求的客户生产受欢迎的锌产品。”自1956年成立以来，AZZ就一直着手于锌产品的业务，并不断扩大产品组合。06年当原料锌的价格上涨至每磅2.25美元时，公司立刻提高了产品价格。07年一季度公司利润达到32.2%，但是目前锌价格下降至每磅0.85美元。“但是公司十分坚持目前低价格，并连续六个季度保持利润率高于预期。”公司CEO表示：“尽管锌价格下降了，但是其它生产原料和天然气价格却在稳步攀升，因此我们必须维持较高的产品价格以抵消成本压力。”“我们将继续抵御降价的压力。”
然而石化板块客户需求强劲为公司增添信心，油气是大型炼油厂和化学工厂。AZZ在11个州拥有20家子公司，包括德路易斯安那州、伊利诺斯州和印第安纳州。多数分公司位于墨西哥湾，靠近当地的大型炼油厂。分析师表示：“对于AZZ来说，超过上述地域以外的市场就不存在利用价值了。”
北美有195家热浸镀锌工厂，受到高价运输因素影响，这些企业的运营成本居高不下，因此靠近大型客户的地理优越性是AZZ最大的优势，尤其是德州和墨西哥湾地区，可谓是兵家必争之地。公司拥有全美20%的镀锌市场份额，南部和西南部的市场份额更是高达25% 。近期公司还收购了Joliet公司以扩大在中西部地区的市场。此次收购预期将提高公司09年70%的营收。
但是AZZ还能享受多久高价锌的优势呢？分析师Buonocore表示：“我不认为公司将大幅降低价格。”大多分析师预期公司的旺盛需求将保持到2010 年。但是分析师Bill Baldwin认为，公司将在锌价格下降之前就进行价格调整，因为镀锌业务最大的风险在于是100%依赖于国内客户，换句话说，国际市场是业务最薄弱的环节。
美国目前疲软的经济环境和能源价格高企是威胁公司业绩的潜在因素，“公司不可避免将面临业绩下滑，27.9%的利润率是不可能长期保持的。”分析师预期公司利润率将回落至18-22%之间。“我们预期今年四季度市场需求量将有所下降，因此将造成价格压力，从而拖累整体业绩。”
同时，这个行业也不乏强有力的竞争对手，包括西部的Valmont Industries(代號:VMI)，中西部的North American Galvanizing(代號:NGA)，东北部的Hill&Smith和西南部的Delta等公司。但是分析师表示AZZ特殊的地理优势使得其能够雄踞业界首位。公司正在专注于开拓更多的高端客户。
公司镀锌业务占到总营收的45%，公司有55%的营收来自制造电子和工业产品。随着通用电气(代號:GE)等大型制造企业耗电量日益增加，AZZ生产的高压传输系统、断路器和开关设备将拥有较为广阔的市场。
Investor's Business Daily
Steel Galvanizer Passes Price Hikes To Customers At Least For Now
Wednesday July 23, 6:07 pm ET
Miho Nagano AZZ, a provider of hot-dip galvanizing services, surprised analysts by hitting a 28% margin in its galvanizing business during the first quarter.
Analysts didn't expect margins to be that high in the June-ended quarter because the high price of zinc -- the main raw material used in galvanized coating -- was falling.
But despite falling raw-material prices, AZZ (NYSE:AZZ - News) was able to maintain the premium prices it charged customers. Thanks to strong demand, AZZ even managed to keep prices high for its biggest clients.
The Fort Worth, Texas-based AZZ has two key businesses: It provides galvanizing services for petrochemical, electrical and telecom companies, and it makes products used for electrical power distribution.
When fabricated, steel is coated by molten zinc, making it resistant to corrosion. Customers ship metal parts and pipes -- pretty much anything that would be exposed to corrosive liquid -- to AZZ to get it galvanized.
AZZ also galvanizes U-Haul's moving trailers.
"They (AZZ) dunk the steel in zinc and send them back to the customers sometimes in the same day," said analyst Ned Borland of Next Generation.
AZZ has been in business since 1956, and it can handle large, complex jobs in a 6- to 10-day turnaround, says analyst Fred Buonocore at CJS Securities.
Raw-Material Costs
When zinc prices skyrocketed to $2.25 a pound in late '06, AZZ immediately raised its prices to customers, Borland says. Margin peaked out at 32.2% in '07's second quarter.
But now the price of zinc has fallen to 85 cents a pound.
"But they have been stubborn on price," Borland said. "For six straight quarters, their margins came in better than before." Borland says the company dropped its prices only 3%.
Said CEO David Dingus in an e-mail: "While the cost of zinc has reduced, all other operating materials and natural gas have increased, which requires us to maintain pricing to recover these costs."
This echoes what he said in a late-June conference call: "We will continue to resist downward pricing pressure."
The strong demand was driven by petrochemical customers, especially big refineries and chemical plants. AZZ has 20 facilities in 11 states, including Texas, Louisiana, Illinois and Indiana. Several facilities are along the Gulf Coast, close to big refineries.
The name of the game of the galvanizing business is to build facilities as close as possible to major customers. Borland says there is a 300-mile-radius limit. "It doesn't make sense to use facilities outside the radius," he said.
Dingus says there are 195 North American hot-dip galvanizing facilities run by 125 companies.
Because of the high costs of shipping large galvanized structures such as cell towers, power poles or cargo trailers to customers, its proximity to customers is the biggest advantage AZZ has, especially in Texas and the Gulf region, analyst Buonocore says.
AZZ has about a 20% share of the U.S. galvanizing market and more than 25% market share in the South and Southwest, analysts say.
It recently acquired Joliet, Ill.-based AAA Galvanizing to expand into the upper Midwest. The acquisition accounted for 70% of the revenue increase in its galvanizing segment in the first quarter of '09.
But how long can AZZ enjoy this fat while zinc prices keep tumbling?
"I don't think that (the margin) would decline significantly anytime soon," said Buonocore, adding that some experts predict strong demand will continue until 2010.
But analyst Bill Baldwin of Baldwin Anthony thinks selling prices could drop faster than the price of zinc. He says the big risk in the galvanizing business is that companies have to depend 100% on domestic customers. A weaker U.S. economy and higher energy costs could hit margins.
"They cannot avoid a slowdown," Baldwin said.
"Margins of 27.9% are not felt to be sustainable for the longer term," Dingus said, adding that margins would eventually drop to the company's historical range of 18% of 22%. "Our guidance anticipates that we will see some moderating of demand in the fourth quarter of our current fiscal year, which may lead to some pricing pressure."
Main competitors are Valmont Industries (NYSE:VMI - News) in the West, North American Galvanizing (NasdaqGM:NGA - News) in the Midwest, Hill & Smith in the Northeast and Delta in the Southwest, Buonocore says.
But Baldwin says AZZ is ahead of many rivals because of its specialized marketing approach. "They don't go after volume," he said. The company focuses on quality and capturing high-end customers, he says.
While the galvanizing business generates about 45% of total revenue and creates cash flow, AZZ earns nearly 55% of total revenue from manufacturing electrical and industrial products.
When companies like General Electric (NYSE:GE - News) are in charge of big generators and motors to create electricity, AZZ gets the electricity from one place to another.
AZZ makes high-voltage transmission bus systems, circuit breakers and switch gear for utilities, refineries and chemical companies.
Borland says soaring demand helps the company upgrade 50- to 60-year-old grids required by 2005 energy legislation. Annual spending by utilities is expected to more than double the record amount of $5 billion.
Since the 2003 Northeast blackout, "every utility company is under pressure from the federal government to maintain the grid," said Borland. "They don't want to get fined."
AZZ's strength is in the niche of the high-voltage transmission market through underground tunnel cable in highly populated areas such as New York, Buonocore says.
An AZZ competitor is Houston-based Powell Industries (NasdaqGS:POWL - News), whose medium-voltage business is strong in heavy industrial markets such as oil and gas and chemical companies.
"(AZZ's) margins are a lot better than Powell's," said Baldwin. Powell doesn't have a galvanizing business, so it cannot enjoy fat margins. But even comparing margins on the electrical equipment unit, AZZ has better margins than Powell, he says.
Earnings Report
AZZ's first-quarter earnings in fiscal 2009 more than doubled to 82 cents, beating estimates by 28 cents. Revenue rose 33% to $100 million, also above views. The electrical and industrial product segment's margin was 15%. The company raised full-year EPS guidance to $2.95 to $3.05, vs. views of $2.43.
AZZ recently purchased Blekhorn & Sawle, a Canadian provider of engineered switching gear products, for $14 million in cash. The acquisition targets utilities and key energy markets in Canada, which is in the midst of an oil and gas boom.
Unlike the galvanizing segment, AZZ exports power transmission products overseas. China and the Middle East account for more than 20% of AZZ's electrical product sales.
Even though the company is aggressively acquiring competitors, AZZ kept debt to a minimum and should generate free cash flow of $30 million in 2008. Analysts expect similar figures in 2009.
"This means they can take more debt if they want to, and they can continue to expand through acquisitions," said Buonocore.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
专家称中国电力危机可能进一步推升全球煤炭价格
英国《金融时报》克里斯•弗勒德(Chris Flood)伦敦报道
2008年7月22日 星期二
煤炭价格过去一年已上涨一倍，达到创纪录的水平。随着中国的电力危机及主要出口国的供应问题使市场进一步趋紧，煤炭价格可能会继续飚升。
煤炭价格飙升之际，由于以前不透明的场外交易煤炭市场流动性增强，对冲基金及其他投资者加大对这一大宗商品的投资兴趣。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)大宗商品联席主管亚当•奈特(Adam Knight)表示：“在所有大宗商品交易中，煤炭的基本面因素最为强劲。”
“我们看到越来越多的投资者寻求直接投资于煤炭，而非通过与煤炭相关的证券产品进行投资。”
煤炭价格是紧随着中国消费量的上升而上涨的。中国约80%的发电量依赖于煤炭。随着煤炭短缺现象日益严峻，不少地区已开始施行定量供电。
美林(Merrill Lynch)大宗商品策略师弗朗西斯科•布兰奇(Francisco Blanch)表示：“中国的电力危机可能是未来数月全球煤炭市场的主要推动力。”他警告，煤炭价格在未来三个月可能达到每吨250美元。
过去一年，亚洲基准的API-4煤炭1年期远期合约价格上涨近124%，昨日的交易价格约为每吨153美元，此前曾在本月触及179.50美元的创纪录高点。
中国生产大量热煤，但多数都用于国内消费。政府的价格管制削弱了煤炭生产商提高产量的积极性，扭曲了中国能源市场。
其结果是，过去4年，中国的煤炭净出口下降了一半以上，甚至在今年4月成为了煤炭净进口国，对亚洲的煤炭供应构成巨大压力。法国兴业银行 (Société Générale)驻巴黎的以马内利•法吉斯(Emmanuel Fages)警告称，中国的出口供应可能进一步收紧，特别是在夏季用电高峰时期。
煤又“热”了
作者：英国《金融时报》丽布卡•布里姆(Rebecca Bream)
2008年7月4日 星期五
数十年来，煤炭一直被视为全球可以依赖的一种能源形式。相对于石油和天然气，煤炭价格更低且分布更为广泛，许多国家的煤炭储量丰富，这让它们获得了一种能源安全感。
但在过去6个月，从恶劣天气到基础设施瓶颈问题，几个因素造成了煤炭产区供应中断，导致煤炭价格飙升。
例如，今年初，中国遭受了严重雪灾，使得煤矿产量减少。中国日益扩大的煤炭需求使其在去年首次成为煤炭净进口国。中国约80%的发电依靠煤炭。
在今年1月遭受恶劣天气后，煤炭短缺现象变得更为严峻。由于担心断电，中国政府暂停了煤炭出口，从而导致全球供应短缺。
同时，澳大利亚主要煤炭产区昆士兰遭遇洪水。许多煤矿被淹没，大雨切断了通往其它矿区的道路，迫使必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和Macarthur Coal等矿业公司暂停了向客户交货。
澳大利亚铁路网络和港口设施的扩建没有跟上采矿业务增长的步伐，也影响了该国对外煤炭供应。多达50艘船舶在达尔林普尔湾(Dalrymple Bay)港口排队等待装船。
在南非，严重的电力短缺导致该国煤矿停产。而它们开采出的煤炭也留给了国内电力行业，减少了出口。
在能源需求不断上升之际，这些供应问题对煤炭价格构成了巨大影响。最近，用于发电的欧洲热力煤主要基准价格触及每吨194.92美元的创纪录高位，自今年初以来已累计上涨85%。
明年交货的煤炭期货价格已触及每吨200美元，而分析师表示，没有理由预计未来几个月煤炭价格将会下跌。
“煤炭价格大幅上涨始于一年前，”英国燃煤电厂Drax交易主管保罗•泰勒(Paul Taylor)表示。“目前，价格正处于历史高位。”
Drax半数的煤炭供应来自英国煤矿，另外一半来自进口，因此该公司很容易受到全球市场价格变动的影响。泰勒表示，只要亚洲经济体持续增长，需求将相当强劲，煤炭价格将持续高企。
“降低煤炭价格的唯一方法是真正增加供应，”他表示。“开矿并不太难，但基础设施保障是个大问题。让铁路和港口为更多煤炭出口做好准备不是一蹴而就的事情。因此，煤炭价格不太可能回落至去年的水平。”
煤炭价格的上涨，再加上油气价格不断上涨，正推高全球电力价格。
电力设备制造商Doosan Babcock首席执行官伊恩•米勒(Iain Miller)表示，尽管煤炭价格不再低廉，但它仍将是电力企业普遍欢迎的能源，因为它比天然气更容易获取。他表示：“全球煤炭储量丰富，足够300年至400年的消费，这种能源运输便利，有很大的灵活性。”
相对于燃烧天然气而言，燃煤发电将产生更多的二氧化碳排放，煤炭持续受欢迎可能会对气候变化造成严重影响。
电力企业正在兴建新型电厂，配备更为高效的锅炉，但为了防范进一步全球变暖，电力行业必须在碳捕捉和碳埋存方面取得进展。有几种技术能够捕捉、液化并埋存燃煤产生的二氧化碳，但迄今还没有一种技术在商用规模下得到验证。
瑞典电力企业Vattenfall首席执行官拉斯•约瑟夫松(Lars Josefsson)表示，对于在2050年前让欧洲电力行业实现无碳发电，碳捕捉和碳埋存非常关键。
他表示：“需要大力推进这项技术。”他辩称，政府需要发放大量补贴，让首批电厂建立并运转起来。
今年9月，Vattenfall将在德国兴建30兆瓦碳捕捉和碳埋存试点电厂，这将是全球首座这样的电厂。但该公司不会在没有补贴的情况下建设其第一家完整规模电厂。
约瑟夫松表示：“在每个发展过程中，第一个总是最为昂贵。完整规模的碳捕捉和碳埋存电厂造价10至20亿欧元（合16至31亿美元）。指望公司董事会批准如此大规模的赔钱投资，是不切实际的。”
乙醇
糖价或下试12美仙关口
受玉米及原油价格大跌拖累，纽约原糖10月份期货合约上周大跌逾10％，全周收报12.49美仙。基金活动方面，截至7月15日止，纽约原糖非商业长仓合约下跌15743张至201397张，短仓合约则微升212张至74336张，使净长仓合约减少15955张至127061张。
至目前为止，投资者对原糖前景已有三项共识，包括巴西甘蔗产量将于08/09年创历史新高、该国将把更多甘蔗作用提炼乙醇及第二大产糖国印度的产量下降。不过受人争议的是，巴西糖产量会否因乙醇产量上升而减少，还是受甘蔗产量上升而增加，其次的争议是，去年全球原糖库存仍占消费量逾46%，即全球原糖库存足够供应近半年使用，即使08/09年糖产量下跌，但库存仍能为供求状况带来一定缓冲作用，加上，国际原糖组织(ISO)及美国农业部早已于年初发表印度产量下跌的预测，故此，要糖价后巿进一步攀升，焦点应系于巴西一国的产量身上。
除巴西圣保罗甘蔗联盟(UNICA)，另一个巴西国内咨询机构JOB上周亦发表对当地原糖产量的预测，JOB预计，08/09年巴西甘蔗产量将由去年的4.93亿吨上升至5.5亿吨，不过该组织同意UNICA之前的讲法，指当地原糖产量不会跟随甘蔗产量上升，因为巴西在甘蔗收割期间遇上暴雨，令当地甘蔗果糖含量下降，影响原糖压榨效益，故JOB认为，08/ 09年，巴西原糖产量均会持平于3020万吨，跟去年的3080万吨相若，反之乙醇产量则会由225万公升增加至270.4万公升，主要受惠于美国对巴西入口增加所赐。同时，经贸发展组织(OCED)早前公布，美国、欧盟及加拿大三地将于2015年前投入250亿美元以发展生物能源，OCED更指，采用甘蔗生产乙醇可减低二氧化碳排放量约80% ，反之采用玉米提炼的乙醇达致的减排量仅约30%，而采用小麦、甜菜及菜油等生产乙醇，其减排量界乎于30-60%之间。 OCED的预测证明在大国眼中，甘蔗提炼乙醇最能达致环保效益，加上早前美国已倡议把全球乙醇贸易标准化，使各国生产的乙醇在统一标准的情况下，令乙醇贸易更畅顺，以鼓励各国提升产量。在上述种种措施支持下，我们相信甘蔗在全球生物能源的地位将日渐提升，因此，即使今年巴西甘蔗产量持续上升，但在乙醇使用比重吃重的情况下，原糖产量将日渐下降。
虽然上周糖价已回落逾一成，但长线而言，糖价上升空间仍大。但就短线而言，原糖价格走势一向较为被动，其走势一向受玉米及原油走势牵引，由于上述两种商品上周纷纷跌破重要心理关口，故10月份原糖期货短期难以独善其身。不过观乎原糖远期合约走势，09年3月、5月及7月份到期的合约上周虽随大巿下滑，但仍企稳于14美仙关口，反映投资者对糖价明年信心仍存，故预期即月合约在下跌至近12美仙关口仍可获支持。
IBD看好GT Solar
7/22
尽管目前的市场对与公司发行股票并不有利，但是GT Solar International(代號:SOLR) 却总能在逆境中披荆斩棘、获得生机。这是一家生产固定资产设备的企业，其产品由世界顶级太阳能制造商纳入囊中。尽管太阳能在过去几个月中并不太火，但是随着能源价格高涨加上政策诱导全球资本倾向能源领域，太阳能开始成为市场关注的新能源。而GT Solar就为BP Solar International, LDK Solar(代號:LDK), Yingli Green Energy(代號:YGE)以及Trina Solar(代號:TSL)等太阳能生产商提供相关设备的一家企业。
当然，竞争在所难免，但是IPO Boutique的首席研究员Scott Sweet表示，GT Solar才是行业中一流的专业太阳能固定设备制造商，同时还是一家一流的绿色新能源企业。成功者都是站在巨人肩上的，GT Solar之前也已经获得了众多的成功先例。
GT Solar自1994年就开始生产太阳能固定设备。06年GFI Energy Ventures和Oaktree Capital Management这两家投资公司收购并更名了GT Solar，公司开始涉足多晶硅生产，这是生产太阳能的主要原材料。公司还生产其它太阳能公司必须要使用的光电芯片产品，当然，太阳能的基础组成和总配件材料仍然是公司的核心产品。公司的总裁兼CEO表示Thomas Zarrella：“我们能够为太阳能行业的公司提供最快的发展机遇。”GT Solar已经与世界顶级太阳能生产商达成合作协议，包括中国在内。
太阳能行业发展之迅速是由于油价和天然气价格高企导致的。一旦传统能源生产商开始降价，太阳能行业的主要支柱就会有所动摇。GT Solar的业务主要依赖于业界的一些主要生产商，07年这些客户占到营收的70%，08年占到62% 。三大客户还在今年3月签署了价值13亿美元的订单合同。但是这并不表示公司业绩将一直保持利好。另一个问题在于GFI Energy Ventures和Oaktree Capital Management这两家投资公司仍然拥有公司75%的股权，而且公司在中国的业务也存在一定的风险，因为中国有较为严格的能源法律，由政府对能源进行开采和生产。
GT Solar07年销售额达到6010万美元，同比上涨29%；08年营收上涨306%至2.441亿美元。08年每股收益为0.25美元。
Monday, July 21, 2008
索罗斯称房利美和房贷美危机还有馀波
路透纽约7月14日电---金融大鳄索罗斯(George Soros)周一表示,房利美(FNM.N: 行情)和房贷美(FRE.N: 行情)的危机不是最後一次,这次还在恶化的信贷危机将对本已放缓的美国经济产生影响.
"(房利美和房贷美的)这次事件不是最後一次,"索罗斯接受路透电话采访时称.其并补充道,长达一年的全球金融市场动荡是"我们一生中最为严重的金融危机."
他说,"房利美和房贷美面临的是偿付危机而不是流动性危机.它们在借款方面没有问题,事实上就算存在这个问题,美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,FED)也会为其提供流动性."
索罗斯补充称,政府(援助房利美和房贷美)的大规模举措可能令美元持续承压,"我认为美元很脆弱,因为经济正步入衰退,而美国政府的行动涉及到债务累积.各种指标都显示这个国家的担保信用正在恶化."
总而言之,索罗斯指出美联储主席贝南克正陷于困境之中.
"当他意识到信贷危机的严重程度时,就开始非常激进地降息,并动用一切可以支配的工具,"索罗斯称,然而现在是"弹尽粮绝",对于美元的冲击使得贝南克不能再降息,同时他也不能升息,因为经济面临衰退命运.
"因此,他的选择有限--贝南克被困住了."
IBD看好Genzyme
7/16
制药向来是获利颇丰的行业，但是如果业绩不佳怎么办呢？Genzyme Corp(代號:GENZ) 就不必担心这些问题。尽管近期有业绩问题连连，但是公司多元化产品组合却以20%的稳健涨势运行良好。Genzyme的产品组合涉及生物制药板块的较大方面，其产品远销海外，包括欧洲、日本和南美，海外市场为其提供了巨大的销售空间。但是你可能并不常见Genzyme的产品，因为公司的产品通常是标以“罕用药品”出现的，罕用药品仅仅使用于少数人群，美国的消费人群不到200,000，但是Genzyme已经足够从中获利了。
Cerezyme是Genzyme生产罕用药品的一种，每年的成本为25万美元，长期以来Cerezyme一直是公司销售额的领头羊，但是自公司2000 年进行多元化改进之后，Cerezyme在总销售额中的占有率由70%降至30% 。公司一直专注于自主开发酶制剂的代用品，但是第三方业务生产也开始成为公司的着力点，约有一半以上的产品是由公司收购的。
自2000年以来，Genzyme收购了一系列药物生产商，价格由1000万美元到10亿美元不等，Mozabil就是公司收购AnorMed获得的业务。同时，公司开始考虑转型，即由外向型药物收购转向内部合作开发创新。公司执行副总裁Peter Wirth表示，“从资产角度考虑，这种战略更加有效，而且我们也更加倾向于自主创新产品。”
6月24日，公司与胆固醇药物生产商mipomersen达成一项授权协议，透过这份协议，Genzyme独家取得mipomersen全球权利，这是 Isia所发现的降血脂药物，目前进袭第三阶段实验。今年下半年将完成mipomersen实验病人招募，治疗家族性高胆固醇血症。投资者非常看好这项交易，股价当天大涨并跑赢大市。
公司的Cerezyme即将使用于帕金森综合症，尽管Shire Pharmaceuticals(代號:SHPGY)以及Protalix(代號:PLX) 也在开发类似业务，但是分析师认为两者并不能对公司此类业务构成威胁。分析师认为原因有二：其一，两者很难找到用药的病人进行临床试验，因为此类病人并不多，而且即便是，他们也已经在使用Cerezyme了。其二，两者没有可以超越Cerezyme的医疗水平，Cerezyme的确是行业中的佼佼者。
公司其它药物的业绩增速已经赶超Cerezyme，一季度Cerezyme销售额上涨15%至3.04亿美元。Myozyme就是其中之一，主要用于 Pompe疾病的治疗，Myozyme一季度销售额上涨了78%至6730万美元，分析师预计二季度销售额将继续上涨，从而满足美国不断上升的市场需求。
其它两支前景看好的药物还有Campath和Synvisc-One，分别用于治疗骨髓癌和骨关节炎。分析师预计Myozyme、Campath和Synvisc-One将取代Cerezyme成为未来公司额业绩支柱。
公司一季度利润低于华尔街预期，主要是由于一次性的投资减记。既便如此，每股收益仍然增长了22%至0.95美元，营收上涨了25%至11亿美元。公司管理层降低08年业绩预测至3.90美元。Thomson Reuters estimate分析师预期08年每股收益为3.9美元，同比上涨14%；09年利润预期上涨20%，2010年上涨17% 。
Investor's Business Daily
Drug Maker Grows With Diverse Portfolio Of 'Orphan' Products
Tuesday July 15, 5:53 pm ET
Marilyn Alva Blockbuster drugs can be wonderful things, but what happens when they fizzle?
Biotech firm Genzyme (NasdaqGS:GENZ - News) doesn't worry too much about that. It would rather have a stable of singles hitters than one home run.
Despite a couple of trouble spots lately, its diversified portfolio is doing well. Most of the names in it are growing at a solid double-digit pace.
Its product portfolio is one of the broadest in the biotech sector, and its products reach many markets overseas, including Europe, Japan and South America. About half of the Cambridge, Mass., firm's sales come from outside the U.S.
You might not have heard of most of its products, since Genzyme addresses rare or "orphan" diseases in particular. Orphan drugs treat small patient populations, which in the U.S. is defined as less than 200,000.
Don't cry for orphans too much. Genzyme is able to command premium prices for them.
Pricey Drugs
Cerezyme, the closest the company gets to a blockbuster, costs about $250,000 a year. The injectable drug treats Gaucher's disease, a rare condition that inhibits the body's ability to process fat.
Cerezyme has long been Genzyme's sales leader. But as Genzyme set out to diversify in 2000, the drug went from 70% of total sales to less than 30% now.
Genzyme is best known for internally developed enzyme-replacement therapies, such as Cerezyme.
But it's also well-regarded for commercializing third-party compounds. About half of its products have come from acquisitions.
Since 2000, it has acquired about a dozen drug companies at prices ranging from $10 million to $1 billion.
One of those products is Mozabil, which came by way of the 2006 purchase of AnorMed. Genzyme expects to launch the stem-cell transplant drug next year.
But Genzyme is shifting its drug-building strategy from outright buys to partnerships with "innovators," says Peter Wirth, executive vice president of corporate development.
"It's more efficient from a capital standpoint, and we really like investing with innovators," he said. "They know a lot about these compounds they've discovered, and they are committed to getting them on the market."
On June 24, Genzyme closed a deal to license a cholesterol-drug candidate, mipomersen, from its developer Isis Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGM:ISIS - News). The drug targets patients with ultrahigh cholesterol.
"Investors liked the deal," said analyst Geoff Porges of Sanford C. Bernstein. "The stock definitely has outperformed since the deal closed."
Genzyme also is partnering with Ceregene on a gene therapy for Parkinson's disease. The neuro-protective agent, which doesn't have a name yet, showed positive results on patients in phase two clinical trials.
Though Genzyme has had the Gaucher's disease field virtually to itself since the early 1990s, that might change. Shire Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqGS:SHPGY - News) and the Israeli drug firm Protalix (AMEX:PLX - News) are developing like-kind drugs.
But analyst Porges says the two rival drugs aren't as great a threat as one might think.
"Their development is going slowly," he said. One reason: It's tough to find Gaucher's patients for clinical trials. There aren't too many of them, and most are already on Cerezyme.
He doesn't expect the drugs to launch before 2011 or 2012.
Genzyme's Wirth says the two drug candidates "don't claim any therapeutic advantage over Cerezyme, which is sort of the gold standard in this area."
"I can't think of a single instance where people who are well controlled on a drug are taken off that drug and put on a new drug that has no advantages," he said.
Other Genzyme drugs are growing faster than Cerezyme, which still saw sales rise 15% in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, to $304 million.
One such drug is the relatively new Myozyme, which treats Pompe's disease, a rare muscle disorder. Myozyme sales jumped 78% in the first quarter from a year ago, albeit to only $67.3 million. It's the fastest grower in Genzyme's arsenal.
Myozyme sales would likely be higher if a second manufacturing plant were running to help meet demand in the U.S. But the FDA won't green-light a Boston plant until changes are made. Genzyme intends to submit a new plan.
Two other promising drugs face regulatory hurdles, says Porges. One is Campath, a bone-marrow cancer drug Genzyme is testing for severe forms of multiple sclerosis. The other is Synvisc-One, a single-shot treatment for osteoarthritis of the knee.
Porges says Myozyme, Campath and Synvisc-One offer "the biggest upside" for Genzyme. The latter two also address medical areas that aren't so rare.
Mipomersen also faces a regulatory hurdle. In line with its tougher stance on cholesterol drugs, the FDA recently requested outcome studies.
Analyst Maged Shenouda of UBS Securities expects Genzyme to file for approval in the second half of 2010.
Other potential growth drivers cited by analysts include Renvela, for early stages of chronic kidney disease, and expanded use of Clolar, the acute myeloid leukemia drug, in previously untreated older adults.
Complex Company
With so many moving parts, Genzyme isn't a simple company. Management tries to keep tabs on all the disparate niche products by herding them into six groups: therapeutics, renal, oncology, transplants, genetics and biosurgery.
The company is "complex and diverse," Shenouda says. But, he adds, it's consistent where it counts: in earnings performance. "It has the ability to consistently meet or beat expectations," he said.
First-quarter earnings came in lower than Wall Street's estimate, however, due to a one-time write-off on an investment. Even so, profit rose 22% from the earlier year to 95 cents a share. Revenue climbed 25% to $1.1 billion.
Because of the delayed Myozyme plant in Boston, management lowered its profit guidance for the full year to about $3.90 a share, compared with an earlier figure of $4.00.
At $3.94 per share for 2008, as analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimate, earnings would be up 14% from 2007. Analysts see earnings growth of 20% in 2009 and 17% in 2010. The company reports second-quarter results on July 23.
IBD看好Olin Corp
7/18
军火和化学品生产商Olin Corp(代號:OLN) 的业务量正在节节攀升，机关公司的氯、苛性钠和次氯酸钠业务却罕有人知，但是公司的chlor alkali业务却占到销售额的72%，利润的87% 。公司一年前收购了Pioneer Cos，作为其chlor alkali的专业生产商。chlor alkali的生产包括氯和苛性钠，这两者还使用于工业漂白。氯是塑料的原材料，主要用于房屋建设的塑料制品中。而苛性钠则是生产纸浆和制造清洁剂、肥皂和化学产品的主要原料。
chlor alkali业务为公司带来了强劲的价格和利润优势，公司CEO Joseph Rupp表示。Morningstar分析师Ben Johnson认为氯和苛性钠两大市场正在上演强强联合的双城记，苛性钠的价格在过去一年中飙升了80%，去年6月中旬的价格达到每吨345美元，月底飙升至615美元，这极大地促进了公司的销售额。同时，氯的价格下降了40%至每吨165美元。由于公司的业绩是氯和苛性钠联合作用的，因此不能只看后者价格上涨而不顾前者价格下跌。
公司一季度的货运量攀升了50%，但是由于苛性钠的市场需求较脆弱，货运量同比下降了11% 。苛性钠的需求量显示经济基本面依然较脆弱。虽然本季度苛性钠货运量没有下降，主要由于美元走软，进口数量开始缩紧，海外需求开始旺盛。
一季度公司销售额上涨了56%至3.991亿美元，主要归功于较高的市场需求。每股收益上涨了85%至0.50美元。Thomson Reuters分析师预期08年每股收益将上涨34%至2.03美元，09年将上涨8%至2.20美元。
Olin最大的竞争对手包括Dow Chemical(代號:DOW) , Occidental Petroleum(代號:OXY)以及PPG Industries(代號:PPG)。但是Olin的规模决定其终将获得价格优势。分析师认为公司的电力成本远低于其它同行，这是由于公司使用的天然气很少，更多使用水力电气、每桶和新能源，而天然气价格目前处于飙升阶段。公司的耗能优势为其节省了巨大的开支。
可以说，旺盛的市场需求、充足的货运量加上产品价格上涨，这些因素促进公司一季度利润上涨23% 。尽管铅和铜的价格有所上涨，但是公司都将成本有效地转嫁给了客户方面。
Investor's Business Daily
Ammo Is Its Best-Known Product, But Bleach Is The Profit Center
Thursday July 17, 5:55 pm ET
Steve Watkins Olin has been going great guns with its ammunition business.
But a little-known product called caustic soda is really driving the firm's growth these days.
Winchester ammunition is the better known of Olin's (NYSE:OLN - News) products. But its chlor alkali business makes up 72% of sales and 87% of profit.
Its year-ago acquisition of Pioneer Cos. made it much more of a pure play in chlor alkali.
That deal lifted Olin from the fourth-largest producer of chlor alkali in North America to third. It's now the largest producer of industrial bleach.
Chlor alkali consists of chlorine and caustic soda, which are the end products made from the process of basically running electricity through salt water.
Combined, they are used to make industrial bleach.
Chlorine on its own is used as a raw material for plastics. Caustic soda is used in the pulp and paper industry and to make detergents, soaps and chemicals.
Rising Prices
Better pricing and gains from Pioneer drove growth in the chlor alkali unit, CEO Joseph Rupp said on a conference call to discuss first-quarter earnings.
It's been a tale of two markets within chlor alkali for Olin, says Morningstar analyst Ben Johnson. Caustic soda prices have soared, jumping 80% in the past year.
They were around $345 a ton in mid-June last year and hit $615 a ton last month. That gives sales a huge boost.
"The caustic soda market has been on a tear," Johnson said.
At the same time, chlorine prices plunged more than 40%, to $165 a ton. Because both are made together in the production process, the prices work in tandem. You can't just make one and not the other.
Still, the reined-in supply and less imports of caustic soda that helped lift prices gave Olin a shot in the arm, Johnson says.
"Strong caustic soda pricing is helping these guys keep their heads above water for now," Johnson said.
The strong results have all been due to pricing.
"Volume growth has been nothing to write home about," Johnson said.
Shipment volumes jumped 50% in the first quarter, says Rupp, who declined to be interviewed for this story. But when counting Pioneer's year-ago results, volumes slumped 11% because chlorine demand was so weak.
Chlorine demand typically slows when the economy does, says Mary Blackburn, director of chlor alkali and vinyl studies at consulting firm Chemical Market Associates Inc.
Chlorine is used for plastics, such as PVC pipe, which is big in housing construction. That has tanked and taken chlorine demand with it, hurting pricing.
Caustic soda demand typically follows chlorine by a quarter or two, Blackburn says. This time it hasn't fallen, partly because of the weak dollar. Caustic soda is used a lot by manufacturers, and the weak dollar has them busy meeting foreign demand.
That has pushed imports down, causing tight supplies to go with steady demand.
Those two parts of the business spell good times for chlor alkali firms.
Caustic soda makes up a larger part of margins than chlorine does because more of it is produced at any one time.
"When caustic is rising as rapidly as it has, it gives chlor alkali a good margin boost," Blackburn said.
Indeed. The return on investment for these companies, a gauge of their profit as a share of their capital investment in their assets, averaged 6.5% from 1999 to 2002. Now it's 60%, Blackburn says.
Cost cutting has played a big role. The industry has cut capacity by more than 10% since 2000.
"There's a lot more discipline," Blackburn said.
As a result, she expects the good times to continue, thanks partly to four price increases put in place since April.
"We expect chlor alkali producers to have very good margins in the U.S.," she said.
Johnson does not agree. He sees the dynamics driving higher prices as fleeting -- that when production capacity comes back on line and imports return, prices will fall.
Either way, first-quarter sales jumped 56% to $399.1 million, thanks partly to the Pioneer deal. Earnings soared 85% to 50 cents per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect full-year profit to climb 34% to $2.03 and to gain 8% next year to $2.20.
Olin's largest rivals are Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW - News), Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY - News) -- the two larger chlor alkali firms -- and PPG Industries (NYSE:PPG - News).
Hydroelectric Power
Olin's size helps it gain pricing leverage, Blackburn says.
She also figures it has an edge by putting cheaper technology in some plants.
And its electrical costs are lower than some rivals because it uses less natural gas, for which prices have soared, and more hydroelectric, coal and nuclear energy sources.
The smaller of Olin's units, Winchester, carries a powerful brand name and solid results. It recently won sizable ammunition contracts with the military.
Better volumes, coupled with higher prices, boosted its profit by 23% in the first quarter.
Lead and copper costs have soared, and the company has passed those along to customers.
It's not seeing a slump in commercial demand.
"We're starting to see some trading down to -- no pun intended -- a lower caliber of ammunition," Johnson said.
IBD看好ITC Holdings
你怎样让一只羽翼未丰的雏鸟一飞冲天的呢？作为才运营五年之久的ITC Holdings(代號:ITC)，公司的CEO兼创始人Joseph Welch似乎是回答这个问题的最佳人选。拥有三家子公司的ITC目前拥有15,000英里的高电压电力运输，分布在密歇根州、爱荷华州、明尼苏达州、伊利诺伊州以及密苏里州。ITC主要服务于公共设施、独立发电厂以及其它供电企业。不同于传统的能源运输商，ITC仅提供电力传输服务，功能类似于运输管道，将发电厂的电力运输到各个地方。
2003年，Joseph Welch发现了ITC这家特立独行的企业，当时母公司DTE Energy(代號:DTE)对公司的运输资产进行了精简。一年后ITC通过独立运营控制室，一举成为美国最大的独立能源运输公司。公司05年上市以来，每股收益年涨幅达到94%，营收涨幅达到31% 。08年一季度的每股收益上涨36%至0.53美元，营收上涨了40%至1.419亿美元。
Joseph Welch的运营战略之一就是收购运输资产以扩大公司的实际规模。公司在06年首次以8.65亿美元收购了MichiganElectric Transmission Co.(代號:METC)。去年12月公司首次收购了本州岛以外的电力运输资产Interstate Power & Light，主要在爱荷华州、明尼苏达州、伊利诺伊州以及密苏里州。Interstate Power & Light 是Alliant Energy(代號:LNT) 的子公司，拥有6,800英里的运输线。此次收购价值7.83亿美元，是ITC的运营战略中至关重要的一役。“不仅仅扩大了系统改进的投资机会，还能够在爱荷华州、明尼苏达州、伊利诺伊州以及密苏里州利用风能和太阳能等新能源。”几天后，券商Moody’s将公司评级提高至增持。
Welch表示收购的原因是为了在当地获得较高的公共设施领域的地位，“收购的关键在于获得资产支配权。”公司计划将在未来进行更多收购交易。同时，公司还通过扩建获得了更多的资产支配权。公司的战略还包括重建并加强美国的电力运输体系，因此日渐老化的基建设施亟待改进。公司的目标就是通过对基建改造进行投资来重建并加强国家电力运输体系。去年，公司着力于促进运输可靠性并完成了密歇根的Saginaw Bay-Midland地区的首个体系改进，在获得客户的强烈反响之后，公司又安装了15英里的新电力运输线。
公司的另一个发展机遇就是为需要新能源的地区供应新能源。“我们的新能源商品日渐成为市场的宠儿。”分析师对此也持看好态度。Thomson Reuters预期08年每股收益将上涨17%至1.96美元，09年将上涨14%，2010年将上涨21% 。Federal Energy Regulatory Commission对公司进行增长率、产权率以及投资回报的调节和控制。在资产、工厂以及设备方面，ITC拥有强劲的资本投资计划。08年的开支预测为 2.85-3.4亿美元，预测未来10年内的开支将达到26亿美元。
澳大利亚遭百年不遇大旱 目前百万人可能缺水
中新网7月21日电 新加坡联合早报网消息，关于澳大利亚最长流域的状况调查报告显示，如果旱灾持续，澳大利亚将有多达100万人可能面临食水短缺。
这份由澳大利亚联邦和州政府高级官员作出的报告说，主要产粮区墨累-达令河流域的干旱情况严峻。
澳大利亚气候变化部长黄英贤告诉第九波道电视台：“墨累-达令河流域的情况真的很糟，那里的内流量一直很低，6月份的天气又非常干燥，而我们的重点绝对必须放在人的需要上，那就是百多万个依靠该流域获取食水的民众。”
“这再一次提醒我们，这个国家——澳大利亚特别容易受气候变化的影响。”
澳大利亚正遭遇百年不遇的大旱，部分地区七年多来苦旱不断，各大城市被迫制水。
墨累-达令河流域在澳大利亚东岸，从北部的昆士兰州，穿越新南威尔士，一直到南部的维多利亚州和南澳，涵盖面积几乎等于法国的两倍。该流域的农业生产占了全澳农产总值的40%以上。
上述报告说，这个河流系统在2008-09年间，应该还能提供足够的食水，但是，之后如果还不降雨，食水供应恐怕会有问题。
报告指出：“如果内流量减少，流失量又比预期大，我们可能需要实施进一步应急措施，以保障关键的人员需要。”
澳大利亚顶尖科学家本月提交的另一份报告曾指出，气候暖化将使澳大利亚受热浪袭击的几率增加十倍。以往每隔22年才会出现异常炎热的年份，往后每隔一两年就会发生一次，旱灾将成为澳大利亚的永久性特征。
焦炭Cooking Coal
Coal Stocks: Make Money in Picks and Shovelsat Seeking Alpha (Fri, Jul 18)
中国拟提高焦炭出口关税反击澳洲铁矿石涨价-搜狐财经
Australia's Queensland State May Get Substantial Rain
Massey Points to $50 Billion Mergers on U.S. Coal
Norfolk Southern will get nice ride from exports, CEO says ...
International Coal Imports and Exports
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/coaltrade.html
Friday, July 18, 2008
The Quest for Marcellus Shale Exposure
The Marcellus Shale is quickly becoming the biggest thing in the U.S. natural gas industry since the Barnett Shale. You can hardly watch CNBC without hearing Jim Cramer talk about the Marcellus Shale and his “wildcat drillers.” As investors, we know that if you want exposure to the Marcellus you cannot just buy any company with Marcellus acreage. You need to buy the company with the greatest exposure to the Marcellus if you want to maximize your investment gains.
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find any publicly traded company that is a true pure play on the Marcellus Shale. But, after looking at the different companies involved in the play, some clearly stand out as having more exposure than their peers. The following table shows the enterprise value per acre of the Marcellus Shale drillers:
Marcellus Acreage
Debt
Market Cap
Enterprise Value
EV / Marcellus Acres ($)
Atlas Energy (ATN)
516,000
925M
2.4B
3.3B
6,574
Range Resources (RRC)
1,150,000
1.7B
9.2B
10.9B
9,564
Rex Energy (REXX)
57,000
81M
880M
961M
16,860
Quest Resource (QRCP)
119,000
339M
313M
652M
5,484
Chesapeake (CHK)
1,200,000
14.5B
30.6B
45.1B
37,643
Exco Resources (XCO)
415,000
2.9B
3.4B
6.3B
15,320
Cabot Oil & Gas (COG)
100,000
448
5.4B
5.9B/p>
59,380
Equitable Resources (EQT)
300,000
1.9B
7.4B
9.3B
31,157
XTO Energy (XTO)
152,000
7.3B
29.5B
36.9B
243,204
EOG Resources (EOG)
700,000
1.1B
26.9B
28.1B
40,164
National Fuel Gas (NFG)
700,000
1B
4.4B
5.4B
7,847
CNX Gas (CXG)
161,000
151M
5.5B
5.6B
35,286
Natural Fuel Gas and EOG Resources have a joint venture that is developing Natural Fuel Gas’s 700,000 acres. However, they refuse to release details about the joint venture. As a result, I believe that you should assume that National Fuel Gas has exposure of far less than 700,000 acres.
Cabot Oil & Gas is another company that refuses to say just how many acres it has and will only say that it has more than 100,000 acres. The companies’ hesitancy to reveal their true acreage should be considered a red flag in any due diligence proceedings.
Atlas Energy Resources and Quest Resources seem to be the clear standouts with the most exposure to the Marcellus Shale. Both Atlas Energy Resources and Quest Resources have had recent share offerings and the current market caps are reflected in the chart above. But despite the dilution that occurred as a result of these offerings, these two companies still represent some of the most compelling investments in the Marcellus Shale play.
An important footnote for Quest Resources is that one should remember that the company operates with two subsidiary companies, Quest Energy Partners (QELP) and Quest Midstream Partners. Quest Resources is required to consolidate the balance sheets of Quest Energy Partners and Quest Midstream Partners on its balance sheet, even though they are entirely separate companies. Below is a breakdown up the company's debt structure.
Total Debt
339,000,000
QRCP less limited partner’s debt
35,000,000
Subsidiary Debt
QELP
198,000,000
QMLP
106,000,000
As you can see, most of the debt on Quest Resource’s balance sheet is actually debt at its subsidiaries. Quest Resource only has $35 million of its own debt. This, of course, impacts Quest Resource’s enterprise value and the amount you are paying for the exposure to the Marcellus shale that you would get from buying Quest Resource’s shares. As a result, the line on the graph above for Quest Resources should instead look like the line below.
Marcellus Acreage
Debt ($)
Market Cap ($)
Enterprise Value
EV / Marcellus Acres ($)
QRCP
119,000
35,000,000
344,960,000
379,960,000
3,193
If you back out the debt at Quest Resource’s subsidiaries, the amount of exposure you get to the Marcellus Shale is in fact substantially higher. Most important, though, Quest Resource’s low debt level and significant cash flow from its subsidiaries will make the speedy development of its Marcellus Shale properties easy to finance. If you want exposure to the Marcellus Shale, Quest Resources is clearly the company that you want to own.
Another note worth mentioning is that QELP recently announced that it anticipates being able to increase its distribution from $1.64 per year to $2.00 - $2.20 per year, based on the accretion from the recent acquisition of PetroEdge Resources. This transaction represents exactly the type of value creation that can occur in the MLP capital structure. My previous articles on Quest Resources and Atlas America (the parent of Atlas Energy) can be found here and here.
Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/85483-the-quest-for-marcellus-shale-exposure
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Vical公司称其研究出的禽流感DNA疫苗效果良好
路透华盛顿7月17日电---总部位于圣地亚哥的Vical公司周四宣布，一种能够安全刺激免疫系统从而使其能够抵抗禽流感病毒入侵的DNA疫苗研发成功。
据报导，对100名志愿者的测试结果显示，其中67%接受较高剂量疫苗注射的病人在两次注射没有严重不良反应，并可以抗御H5N1禽流感病毒感染。
Vical在报告中指出，第一阶段临床试验在继续进行中。该阶段试验功证明了这种疫苗的安全性。
圣路易斯大学医学院的贝尔奇（Robert Belshe）博士负责此次实验的安全监督工作，他在报告中写道：“第一阶段临床实验的初步结果表明，抵御H5N1病毒的DNA疫苗能够为人体很好接纳，并能有不俗的抗体反应。”
Vical公司表示，这种DNA疫苗可以在六到八周内制成，而相比之下，现有的在鸡蛋内培养实际病毒的生产方式，则需要四到六个月。
DNA疫苗所用到的基因材料称作“质体”。它们的作用是当遇到特殊的病毒时，产生免疫反应，并且在冷或热的条件下能够比标准疫苗持续更长时间。
据世界卫生组织调查，H5N1禽流感病毒已经在亚洲的大部分地区，以及欧洲，非洲和中东的一部分地区蔓延开来。虽然这种病毒很少能够传染人，但是已经有来自15个国家的385人感染上H5N1，其中243人死亡。
现在至少有16家公司致力于抵抗H5N1禽流感病毒疫苗的开发工作。没有人知道这些实验中的疫苗是否会抵抗住可能造成流感疫情，但是制造商认为防患于未然更好。
Vical公司总裁兼执行长维乔伊・萨曼特(Vijay Samant)在一份声明中说道：“当面临像流感大流行这样的突发感染性疾病时，能够在几周内便生产出来的DNA疫苗明显比需要几个月才能生产出的普通疫苗更具优势。”
国际生命科学大会下一代疫苗具体会议将在华盛顿附近召开，届时Vical公司将在会议上展示第一阶段临床实验的中期成果。Monday, July 14, 2008
美国首诺公司欲出售尼龙业务
美国首诺公司最近表示，由于能源和以石油为基础的原材料价格持续上涨，使其无利可图，该公司有出售尼龙业务的打算。该业务曾占首诺2007年销售额的一半以上。
今年第一季度，首诺公司尼龙业务的销售总额为4.68亿美元，比去年同期增长了10%，但根据公司的“调整EBITDAR(在扣除利息开支、所得税、折旧及摊销、重组和其他特殊费用，以及非现金股票补偿费用之前的盈利)”计算，该业务已经亏损了700万美元。而去年尼龙业务销售总额为18.9亿美元，“调整EBITDAR”为1.06亿美元，占公司总收益的28%。
与尼龙业务盈利水平的消极转变相反，首诺公司的特种化学品和车窗薄膜业务仍然盈利。在今年第一季度，它们所产生的调整EBITDAR利润为1.08亿美元，同比增长了23%。
首诺公司总裁兼首席执行官杰夫·奎因表示，尼龙业务目前正处于进一步增长和提高经济效益的阶段，公司已成功地将尼龙业务的重点从美国国内地毯纤维领域转移到快速增长的亚洲特种树脂及聚合物市场，不久前还签署了一系列将尼龙业务转移至几家中国公司的合同。此外，该公司已对相关产品进行提价。
奎因同时说：“根据我们高利润的专业化学品和高性能材料业务，以及当前尼龙行业发展的情况，现在是一个探索新战略的良好时机，从而有助于调整尼龙和首诺公司其他业务的市场地位，深挖它们各自的潜力。”
化工行业分析师丹尼尔·奥特沃斯称，该公司面临的问题是怎样以适当的价格找到合适的买主。该业务板块产品技术含量相对较低，即使是在更正常的油价基础上，其利润率也不会很高。因此，正在尝试“提高价值链”的公司不会对其感兴趣。不过，首诺公司并未说明它期望以多高的价格出售这项业务。
奥特沃斯表示，可能的买家将会是有全球影响力、生产规模大、效率高的大型化工企业。这类公司可能包括陶氏化学或巴斯夫，另一类可能的买家是拥有廉价石油资源的中东公司。
-------
数家中国公司与首诺签订了泛达和Ascend聚酰胺66树脂和聚合物的购买备忘录，总金额达1.82亿美元。
泛达聚酰胺66树脂主要用于汽车、消费品、电子电器和工业市场的注塑和挤塑应用。Ascend PA66聚合物主要用于纺织品、地毯和工业纤维市场。
Solutia signed memorandums of understanding with three companies for the purchase of Solutia's Vydyne® nylon resin, which is used by Chinese manufacturers of automotive, electrical, consumer, and industrial products. The three companies, and the size of the respective contracts, are Guangzhou Kingfa Science and Technology Co. Ltd. - $84 million; Hangzhou Yongchang Nylon Co. Ltd. - $56 million; and Liaoning Yinzhu Chem-Tex Group Co. - $42 million.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Hughes&Maragioglio：CE蓄势待发
7/11
Celanese(代號:CE)良好的基本面在股价上得到了充分的体现。该股4月间从阶段性底部破茧而出，一轮凌厉的涨升行情将股价推高至50美元上方的新高。期间的数次冲高回落与近期原材料与能源板块的疲弱走势在节奏上保持一致。近几周该股陷入回调以消化获利盘。
分析师认为，这种回调是正常的涨升过程中的整固蓄势，同时也为长线投资者提供了一个建立中长期仓位的良好时机，而对短线投资者而言后市目标位看高至前期高点。股价已经在50日移动平均线上获得了有效支撑。分析师建议在目前的价位介入做多，目标价位48-50美元，止损位设定在41美元下方。
Jul 11, 2008 - 醋酸市场震荡下滑
Jul 11, 2008 - 7月11日醋酸价格动态回顾-中国化工网
Jul 14, 2008 -本周醋酸市场走势及后期分析-醋酸,周报,专家点评,化工-化工- 阿里巴巴 ...
IBD看好General Steel
7/11
对于General Steel Holdings(代號:GSI) 来说，在中国生产什么就在中国销售什么是不变的真理。中国目前从高架、地铁、机场到发电站、大坝以及其它能源项目都在热火朝天的动工当中，作为一家位于北京的公司，General Steel已经跻身于中国钢铁行业巨头之林。中国中央政府计划整合目前处于涣散状态的国内钢铁生产商，将尾大不掉的国企单位整合成更加现代化和高效的钢铁巨头。政府的目标是：到2010年，至少50%的国内生产力要达到前十位，2020年要达到70% 。General Steel表示，弱小钢铁企业将被裁剪，而实力雄厚的钢铁公司也会有所削弱，目前在中国由超过1000家钢铁企业。公司计划扮演支持中国政府的左翼角色，目前其在钢铁行业的地位处于前30位。
仅仅几年前，General Steel还是刚刚登记注册的“初生牛犊”，这家由Henry Yu一手创建的企业主要生产使用于为小型农场设备的碳钢。但是在05年，公司与宝山钢铁集团联合组建了一家合资企业，为能源行业提供钢铁运输管道。去年，公司斥资3900万美元控股国有企业陕西龙门钢铁集团，并获利丰厚。龙门集团是陕西最大的钢铁生产商，年钢铁产量达到250万吨。同时，三峡大坝的修建也需要大量的设备钢铁，包括西安城市地铁建设等项目都需要大量设备钢铁生产。龙门集团为General Steel带来销售额的大幅上升，去年销售额上涨至7.72亿美元，同比为1.4亿美元。
今年一季度营收飙升了675%至2916亿美元；每股收益上涨了200%为0.06美元。然而公司的业务并没有松懈，由于公司拥有自己的铁矿石和炼焦煤原料，其能够有效控制原材料成本开支。
中国最近的五年计划将重点投降中国西部地区，恰恰处于西部核心地区陕西的龙门集团就能够发挥“好望角”的作用了。同时，陕西省也要致力于本省的发展：新高速、机场、大坝以及新帖系统的营建。这还不止，General Steel宣布收购广东省茂名恒大钢铁集团有限公司99%的股权，这是一家年产量180万吨钢铁的企业，这仅仅是恒大生产能力的10% 。Roth Capital Partners分析师Kun Tao表示：“这是一家其潜力巨大的企业。”预计恒大能够达到40%的生产力，每季度净收益将达到200-300万美元。General Steel计划在恒大投资2000-3000万美元，并支付720万美元现金以及1500万美元的银行债务。
虽然Roth Capital的分析师Tao并不怀疑中国南部沿海地区的建筑钢铁需求量将是“巨大的”，但是他质疑的是这些地区营建的日期尚未确定，“说的容易，但是在目前的水平，信息仍然是有限的。”
同时，General Steel还在考虑进行更多的收购，“这绝不是最后一次收购计划，我们将发展成为合并收购的平台。”加上内部的现金流量，General Steel将在美国市场中展翅翱翔。“如果我们的业绩出现丰收，市场也将青睐于我们。”
但是目前公司股票市场拥有率仍然较低，管理层就拥有了65%的股权。Thomson Reuters poll预期今年的每股收益将上涨10%至0.69美元，09年将上涨74%至1.32美元。
Investor's Business Daily
China Consolidates Its Fragmented, Partly State-Owned Steel Industry
Thursday July 10, 6:17 pm ET
Marilyn Alva
For General Steel Holdings, what's made in China is sold in China.
That can be a powerful combination. China is building everything from highways, subways and airports to power plants, dams and other energy projects.
And so it is for Beijing-based General Steel (NYSEArca:GSI - News), which has stepped onto the country's steel stage to help meet demand for all things steel.
It does so as the central government aims to consolidate fragmented domestic steel makers -- many of them state-owned -- into a more modern and efficient industry.
The government's goal: bring 50% of domestic production under the helm of the top 10 steel outfits by 2010, and 70% by 2020.
General Steel says that as excess capacity from weaker players is removed, the stronger steel companies will gain clout. More than 1,000 steel firms of all sizes now operate in China.
General Steel aims to be one of the stronger players left standing. It figures it now keeps company with the top 30.
Humble Beginnings
But until a few years ago, General Steel barely registered. The small predecessor firm -- founded by Henry Yu, who is the current chief executive as well -- made carbon steel for small farm vehicles, many of them used by peasant farmers.
Then, in 2005, General Steel and the state-owned Baotou Iron and Steel Group forged a joint venture to make steel pipes for the energy sector.
Last year, it got hugely bigger when it paid $39 million for a controlling interest in a state-owned business in Central China called Shaanxi Longmen Iron and Steel.
Longmen, the largest steel producer in Shaanxi province, can turn out 2.5 million tons of crude steel a year. Most is bar steel for reinforcing concrete.
Products rolling out of the facility have helped build the massive Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River. Newer uses include construction of a subway system in the regional capital of Xi'an, among other projects.
With Longmen on board last year, General Steel's sales rose sharply, to say the least, to $772 million from just $140 million in 2006.
In the first quarter, revenue soared 675% from the year-ago period to $291.6 billion. Per-share earnings rose 200%, but to a still-small 6 cents per share.
Business isn't likely to slack off, analysts say. General Steel is able to control high raw-materials costs somewhat since it owns some of the iron ore and coking coal used to make steel.
China's latest Five-Year Plan (2006 to 2010) views development of China's western region as a top priority.
Longmen is located in the province designated as the bridgehead for development into the western regions.
And the province itself and its capital are focal points for development. In the works: new highways, an airport, dams and a subway system, according to a government report cited by the company.
If that weren't enough, on June 30 General Steel announced still another big deal. It acquired a 99% interest in the privately owned Maoming Hengda Steel Group, or Hengda for short.
Located in the highly developed southern coastal province of Guangdong, Hengda has the means to produce 1.8 million tons of steel a year.
That's less than Longmen, but Hengda operates at only 10% capacity. Longmen runs at nearly full tilt.
"So it has higher potential to grow," said Kun Tao, an analyst at Roth Capital Partners.
He estimates that if Hengda were to operate at 40% capacity, it would generate $2 million to $3 million in net income per quarter.
That's in the same ballpark as General Steel's total net income in the first quarter alone.
"If it runs at 80%, the upside could be double," Tao said.
And grow it will, vows General Steel's management. Chief Financial Officer John Chen says the firm plans to boost production at Hengda from 180,000 tons a year to 1 million tons by the fourth quarter.
General Steel plans to invest $20 million to $30 million to boost capacity at Hengda, Chen says.
"We got in at a bargain price -- 40% discount of net equity value," he said, noting that Hengda's parent company wanted to focus on real estate, its core business.
General Steel paid $7.2 million in cash and assumed $15 million in bank debt.
Even though the facility had state-of-the-art equipment, the operation had lost money.
Early Stages
Roth Capital's Tao doesn't doubt that demand for construction steel in the southern coastal region is "huge," but he questions how long it will take the facility to ramp up.
"It's too early to say," he said. "At this stage, the information is very limited."
Only two other steel makers operate in the coastal province, but they are much bigger than Hengda.
Meanwhile, the company has its eye on more acquisitions.
"This is by no means the last one," Chen said. "We are a merger and acquisition platform."
In addition to internally generated cash, it will fund expansion through U.S. capital markets, he says.
"If we are able to pull off financial results, the market should reward us," he said.
But the stock is thinly traded by the public. Management owns about 65% of shares.
Earnings are forecast to rise 10% this year, to 69 cents a share, according to a Thomson Reuters poll. They're expected to rise much more in 2009 -- by 74%, to $1.32 a share.
中国汽轮机进入俄罗斯电力市场
6/2
质量，价格，运输，3个强有力的理由让俄罗斯选择中国的汽轮机。
5月23日，哈尔滨汽轮机厂牵头的中国公司与俄罗斯第三大热力发电厂电力批发开放式联合控股发电公司(下文称OGK2)签署合作协议，建造两台660兆瓦汽轮机。分别在2011年和2012年交货。
此类交易在中国和俄罗斯的电力部门中还是第一次，而且很显然，以后还会有更多类似的合作。OGK-2的发言人Yekaterina Shervarli说：“中国能以最快的速度为我们提供最优质的汽轮机。”事实上，OGK-2在与GE和西门子洽谈后转而与中国公司合作是因为GE和西门子只有到2015年才能够提供汽轮机。
俄方预计2011年前新增发电量4.1万兆瓦来满足国内对热电的需求。只有中国公司才能满足如此大的需求。
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Barron's：四大建材公司利润每况愈下
7/10
Barron's报导，受到成本上涨和主要市场疲软的影响，水泥及建材制造商在近12个月里股价下跌了50%左右。Vulcan Materials(代號:VMC)，Martin Marietta Materials(代號:MLM)，Texas Industries(代號:TXI)以及Eagle Materials(代號:EXP)作为美国四大材料制造商企图通过提价并提高生产效率以应对严峻挑战，但是面对疲软不堪的市场需求以及高涨不止的油价，公司的利润不可避免地出现缩水。
尽管股价跳水，但是跌幅仍然高于一年前的水平，去年同期的利润预测一度降至前所未有的悲惨境地。Delphi Management总裁Scott Black表示，“现在买入这些股票还为时过早，这四家建材公司的市盈率、股价与账面价值比率以及其它与美国工业板块相关联的数据仍然较高。”
有迹象显现房屋营建市场疲软已经开始蔓延到商业建筑领域，加上高油价，四大建材公司不得不提高价格并降低成本，但是股价是否能得到提升并助其度过难关就要静观其变了。由于市场对油价涨跌的大趋势看法不一，加上公司的利润预测未能定论，目前最大的问题在于：股价一跌再跌，底线何在？
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
新兴地产 “非概念”登陆纳斯达克
2008-6-16 13:53:34 城市经济导报
新兴地产终于结束了近两年的纳斯达克OTCBB市场交易，成功转板纳斯达克主板，开了中国房企以地产开发主业不经“曲线包装”，直接登陆美国纳斯达克市场的先河。
资本市场的轮回总是富有戏剧性。
2007年初，号称“内地首家实现全球三地上市融资”民营企业的杨凌博迪森，由于信息披露、财务数据等一系列问题被全美证券交易所摘牌。
时隔一年，另一家“陕籍”地产企业——新兴地产终于结束了近两年的纳斯达克OTCBB市场交易，成功转板纳斯达克主板，开了中国房企以地产开发主业不经“概念包装”，直接登陆美国纳斯达克市场的先河。
母公司上市
西安新兴房地产开发有限公司（美国纳斯达克OTC BB市场代码：CHLN，简称“新兴地产”）5月13日宣布，公司的普通股将在纳斯达克资本市场（“纳斯达克”）开始公开交易。股票在纳斯达克的交易代码是“CHLN”，在纳斯达克柜台间公告栏市场开始公开交易后，公司的普通股同时停止在OTCBB市场交易。
“通过这两年从OTCBB市场到纳斯达克主板市场上市的过程，我们先后融资的数量已经超过4700万美金。”新兴地产董秘办公室的一位鲁姓负责人告诉记者：2006年8月24日，新兴地产完成第一次股权融资，共募集资金2012475美金；2007年5月9日，公司完成了第二次股权融资，共募集资金25006978美金；2008年1月28日公司完成了第三次可转换债融资的发行，共募集资金20000000美金。
公开资料显示，新兴地产成立于1992年5月，原隶属于兰州军区后勤部。1998年12月整体移交陕西省经贸委；1999年上半年，顺利完成了企业改制，重组为全部由自然人出资的有限责任公司；2006年初完成与美国中华房屋土地开发集团公司的股权并购，成为外商独资企业，目前是中国西部唯一在美国上市的房地产公司。
资料同时显示，美国中华房屋土地开发集团公司于2006年在内华达州注册成立，是新兴地产在美国的母公司。2006年，2007年先后收购新兴地产，新大地两个国内的子公司，从事国内的住宅开发。
作为地处西安的一家私营地产开发商，新兴地产自1992年起就通过其在中国的全资子公司从事土地征购、开发和管理，包括住宅和商业房地产市场的销售工作。目前位列中国知名地产品牌企业、陕西十大旗舰开发商及西安地产十大品牌企业。
目前，新兴地产注册资金1720万美金，目前拥有总资产4.5亿元，净资产1.5亿元，在西安先后开发建设了长城大厦、新兴大厦、新兴·名园、新兴·丽都·名园、新兴·翰园、新兴·IN之家、新兴·港湾、新兴·骏景园、新兴·24G等十多个住宅商业项目，开发总面积80余万平方米。公司计划2010年主业年销售收入达到10亿元，成为跨行业、跨地区经营的国内知名、本地一流、进入国际资本市场的大型房地产企业。
不需概念包装
“新兴地产将成为真正意义上在纳斯达克交易的第一个中国房地产开发公司。”新兴地产董事长兼首席执行官鲁平纪先生表示：“此次公司普通股在纳斯达克资本市场上市交易将增强公司的透明度，产生更高的交易额和股票的流动性，进一步提高公司抓住潜在机会的能力。”
在以往中国房地产企业的概念中，登陆美国股市，尤其是纳斯达克需要一定的概念包装，原顺驰置业集团为了上市专门设立顺驰不动产网络，因为与网络嫁接便于上市。而就成功登陆美国股市的中国房地产行业企业来说，易居中国和鑫苑房地产无一不是采用了轻资产概念。
但此次新兴地产却以事实证明，即便不需要嫁接网络及其他概念，中国的房地产企业仍然可以登陆美国纳斯达克市场。业内人士指出：就目前掌握的信息而言，新兴地产似乎并没有采用概念包装，就公司本身而言，只能算是一个规模不大的区域型房地产企业，唯一特别的是其上市路径通过了OTCBB市场。
“所谓OTCBB市场类似于柜台交易，美国证监会在其网站也严正声明，在OTCBB上市不能等同于在纳斯达克上市，提醒投资者注意风险。”前述人士告诉记者：但从OTCBB市场转入主板市场，却成为诸多国内企业美国上市的一条重要途径。新兴地产母公司中华地产通过收购美国一家当地公司首先进入了OTCBB市场再登上了纳斯达克主板市场。虽然之前的杨凌博迪森也采用了此种方式，但与博迪森当时的高调态度相比较，新兴地产在两年间不显山不露水地跨越了一系列通往主板市场的障碍。
新兴地产董事长兼首席执行官鲁平纪介绍：纳斯达克主板市场为上市企业设定了一系列门槛，包括流通量、股价和股东数量。目前新兴地产的流通量为3万股/天以上，股东数量则超过了400个。
以6月11日4.74美金的最新收盘价计算，新兴地产目前的市值为1.43亿美金，总股本3014.38万。2007年每股收益0.53美金。股价表现相对稳定，近一年的最高价为8.20美金，最低价为3.20美金。平均日成交量为3.80万。
来自新兴地产的最新数据也显示：截至2008年3月31日，公司在外发行流通的总股本为36,142,889股(包含认股证), 共有股东695人。中方股东持有1600万股，美国基金持有约1500万股，其中包括Whitebox Intermarket Partners, L.P、Pope Investments LLC等在内的数家资产超过十亿美金的国际基金。
中国地产IPO圈钱美利坚
文/ 刘鹏
回首去年，易居中国、鑫苑置业成功登陆美国纽交所，当时就引来众多美国证券分析师的看好。
回看当前，整个内地房产宏观调控环境偏于严谨。尤其是在去年房企IPO大热之后，相关部门已经表示，今年将对地产IPO开始收缩管制。加上港股市场近来对于内地房企IPO也开始提高审核门槛，新设查询环节，询问内地房企是否会将港股市场所募资金“拉”回内地发展。
如此一来，不免让人遐想：很多有意进军资本市场的国内房产开发商、代理商们如今将很难登陆中国本土资本市场。于是，海外资本市场就理所当然成为了他们的IPO方向。
美国的证券资本市场是一个经过了百余年发展的成熟市场，而且，对于全球市场来说，中国房企的IPO规模还是相当小的，但是，成长性却是相当高。
“在整个国际资产价格体系中，内地目前的土地、房产品价格评估都还是偏低的。”世联地产董事、注册土地估价师袁鸿昌认为，在国际市场中的低评估现状，也是导致当前很多外资持续看好内地房地产、看高内地房产成长性的重要缘由。
诚然，这种低估值，高成长状况不仅出现在房地产领域，还在国内其他行业领域有所体现。最好的例子就是百度、分众、盛大等国内企业在美国市场受到的强烈追捧。
著名金融分析师许玉道曾透露，美国投资者对投资目标的选择主要集中在三点：销售收入、净利润、销售收入与净利润的年增长率。只要以上三个条件达到投资者要求，美国的投资者是非常愿意投资有优良业绩的公司的。而对于很多内地房企来说，这三点都不难做到。
“不 可否认的是，海外风投带来的资本优势将有力推动房地产经纪的区域扩张。”中信证券的资深分析师王德勇认为，目前房地产经纪业务在国内的发展处于初级阶段， 是典型的零散型行业，市场还都不规范，只有通过行业的整合才能形成产业链，“通过资本市场的支持，可以利用简单的门店复制扩大业务，而且与资本结合之后发 生产业整合，行业快速走向成熟。”