IBD看好力拓

7/9

在六月份，Rio Tinto（力拓）(代號:RTP) 赢得了来自中国钢铁制造商宝山钢铁的铁矿石供应合同，其价格一夜之间飙升96.5%，这家采矿业巨头向亚洲钢铁生产商发出信号：如果你想要我们的铁矿石，请付和中国同样的价格。仅仅一周之内，日本、韩国及其它亚洲钢铁巨头欣然接受了力拓的价格。力拓的宝钢一役战果辉煌，比Rio Doce(代號:RIO)之前与宝钢达成的价格高了71% 。

位于伦敦的力拓是世界第二大铁矿石生产和供货商，在澳洲拥有巨大矿田。07年力拓的铁矿石产量达到1.45亿吨，除此以外，公司还生产铝、铜以及黄金，铜矿石占到公司总利润的30% 。受到中国钢铁生产扩大和建筑市场繁荣的刺激，近几年来铁矿石不断涨价，这为公司带来了源源不断的合同订单。

分析师表示，铁矿石的质量是影响钢铁产品的重要因素，那么澳洲的铁矿石就一定比巴西的好吗？果真如此，力拓显然药优越于巴西的Vale公司。由于澳洲靠近中国，力拓可以降低在中国的运费从而获利。“在铁矿石交易中，运费造成的成本压力并不小于原材料带来的成本压力，” Canaccord Adams分析师Damien Hackett表示。随着油价飙升和管道运输成本上涨，运费一路狂飙，为成本造成重大压力。

然而力拓和Vale间的运费差异是每吨50美元，Bradford Research的Chuck Bradford表示：“目前，铁矿石十分紧缺。”巴西铁矿石就更值钱了，但即便值钱，也只能达到每吨5美元，远低于每吨50美元的运费，而巴西到中国的运费是每吨103美元。因此力拓的澳洲到中国这条线路为其节约了大笔运费，这也就是为什么力拓要打赢宝钢一役的关键因素。

BHP Billiton（必和必拓）(代號:BHP) 作为澳洲采矿业巨头所拥有的铁矿石产量不及力拓，因此尽管想要提价，也只能获得与力拓一样的价格。在赢得宝钢合同之后，分析师预计力拓将为竞争对手必和必拓树起行业壁垒。尽管出价1700亿美元，力拓仍然拒绝了必和必拓的收购请求。“必和必拓显然低估了力拓的价值和发展前景” Canaccord的分析师Hackett表示，如果一家采矿巨头就能获得如此丰厚的价格利润，那么合并后的企业将拥有操纵世界铁矿石价格的能力，这引起美国反垄断执法者和欧盟的警觉，并进行了相应阻止。尽管收购质疑不断，欧盟委员会还是为双方的连袂亮起了绿灯，必和必拓将由于反垄断原因要出售一部分资产并由可能提高收购价格。而中国当然是坚决反对双方连手的，表示这将造成澳洲到中国铁矿石供应垄断，导致铁矿石价格升至更高。

今年早期，中国的一家铁矿石公司与Alcoa（美国铝业）(代號:AA)连手购买了力拓9%的股权。同时，世界最大的钢铁生产商ArcelorMittal(代號:MT) 也在考虑加入这场收购战役，但是分析师认为可能性不大。尽管必和必拓一再宣称合并后的企业将在降低成本和提高营收方面获利37亿美元，力拓制定了一项产量促进计划，到2015年铁矿石产量将上涨10%，铜产量上涨8.4%，铝产量上涨7.2% 。“这是由于市场需求巨大造成的，但是将施压于采矿企业的员工、技术以及资源。”力拓收购了加拿大的Alcan公司，旨在提高铝产量。铝生产是一种能源密集型产业，耗能占到成本的40%，力拓表示能源危机正在影响中国和南非的钢铁生产，随着能源成本飙升，力拓的铝业利润将出现下降。

必和必拓的铁矿石业务占到营收的15%，同时油气业务也为公司带来丰厚的利润率，占到去年总营收的15% 。分析师预计中国市场将占到力拓总销售额30-50%，商品价格是受到中国市场需求刺激而出现上涨的，因此一旦需求下降，价格不免会出现下跌。但是中国钢铁生产在近几年将保持8-15%的涨势。去年中国就进口了4亿吨铁矿石。因此力拓和必和必拓之间将上演更加激烈的战争，谁的价格更低廉谁将最终赢得中国的青睐。

力拓07年净利润下降了2%至73亿美元，销售额上涨了31.9%至335亿美元。

Investor's Business Daily
Australian Miner Enforces Higher Iron Ore Prices For Steel Producers
Tuesday July 8, 6:07 pm ET
Miho Nagano

In late June, Rio Tinto won the biggest-ever price hike of up to 96.5% in a contract to supply iron ore to Chinese steel maker Baosteel.

The mining giant sent a message to other Asian steel makers: If you want our iron ore, you must pay the same price as the Chinese.

Within a week, Japanese and Korean steel giants and other Asian mills had accepted Rio Tinto's (NYSE:RTP - News) terms. Rio's benchmark Bao price was a significant premium of up to 71% over what Brazilian miner Vale do Rio Doce (NYSE:RIO - News) had earlier agreed to with Bao.

London-based Rio Tinto, the world's second-biggest iron ore producer after Brazil's Vale, owns iron ore mines in Australia. Its iron ore production capacity was 145 million tons in 2007. The company also produces aluminum, copper and gold. Iron ore accounts for about 30% of earnings.

The price of iron ore has risen rapidly in the last few years, driven by soaring steel production and booming construction in China.

Steel Quality

Analysts say the quality of iron ore, a key ingredient of steel, is slightly better in Brazil than in Australia.

If so, how did Rio Tinto win a higher price increase over Vale?

Because Australia is closer to China. Rio argued that it should get a premium price because China's freight costs are lower.

"In iron ore trading, the cost of freight is almost the same as the costs of materials," said analyst Damien Hackett of Canaccord Adams. He says price negotiation in the past has typically not reflected the freight differential.

As oil prices and demand for vessels rise, the freight cost is skyrocketing.

The freight differential between Vale and Rio is now more than $50 a ton, says Chuck Bradford of Bradford Research. "Right now, iron ore is tight," he said. Brazilian iron ore is more valuable, according to Bradford, but probably only by $5 per ton, not by $50. The average price for Australia-to-China is $103 per ton.

The premium price China pays is still well below spot iron ore prices. Rio could have gotten a higher price, says analyst Tony Robson of BMOCM-Canada.

How will the new deal with the Chinese affect Rio's bottom line?

In an e-mail, Rio Tinto CEO Tom Albanese said the deal would have "a significant impact," given that iron ore makes up around a third of the company's earnings.

Some analysts believe the deal could increase Rio's earnings by more than $4 billion.

The new contract price, which began April 1, can more than offset rising production costs, Albanese says.

BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP - News), a rival Australian mining giant whose iron ore production is smaller than Rio's, tried for a higher price but had to settle for the same price as Rio's.

By winning the Bao deal, some analysts say Rio is putting up a barrier against a hostile takeover by BHP.

BHP had offered 3.4 of its shares for each Rio share in a deal worth $170 billion. Rio rejected the offer.

"It significantly undervalues the company and its prospects," Albanese said. "We are confident that we are well positioned on a stand-alone basis to maximize value for our shareholders compared with the offer from BHP Billiton."

Canaccord's Hackett says that if one mining giant can get a premium price this high, a combined company could have even more pricing power. BHP says a deal has cleared U.S. antitrust regulators. The European Union Commission extended its review.

In London, Rio shares have been trading at a discount to BHP's offer. Analyst Jeffrey Schumacher of Theodoor Gilissen sees this as a sign the market is skeptical about the deal.

But if the EU Commission gives the green light, BHP may have to sell some assets for antitrust reasons. There is a possibility that BHP could raise its bid, Schumacher says.

China reportedly is opposed to the merger, saying it could create a monopoly in the supply of iron ore from Australia to China, driving up the price of iron ore even more.

Earlier this year, state-owned aluminum company Chinalco teamed with Alcoa (NYSE:AA - News) to buy a 9% stake in Rio.

Also, the world's biggest steel maker, ArcelorMittal (NYSE:MT - News), is looking at entering the takeover battle, according to the Financial Times. But analysts say that's unlikely. ArcelorMittal has its own iron ore mines, and it's nearly self-sufficient already. It has contracts with Vale, not with Rio or BHP, Schumacher says.

While BHP argued that the combined company would gain $3.7 billion in cost savings and increased revenue, Rio Tinto set a plan to boost production growth of iron ore at a compounded rate of 10%, copper and base metals at 8.4%, and aluminum at 7.2% until 2015.

"The challenges that we face are driven by the need to produce more tons faster than ever before, and that leads to strains on people, on technology and resources," said Albanese.

Rio Tinto bought Canada's Alcan as a play to meet increasing aluminum demand. Aluminum production is energy-intensive, with nearly 40% of production costs attributable to energy. Rio says it has seen energy shortages affecting production in China and South Africa. It secured long-term contracts for 94% of power supplies to its Alcan unit.

But as energy costs soar, margins in Rio's aluminum business are declining, Schumacher says.

Business Segments

Rival BHP's iron ore business accounts for only 15% of earnings. BHP enjoys fat margins from its oil and gas business, which accounted for more than 15% of revenue last year.

BHP's oil and gas division earns twice as much Rio Tinto's Alcan, says BMOCM analyst Robson.

Hackett estimates that China makes up 30% to 50% of Rio's total sales. Since commodity prices are supported largely by demand from China, signs of a slowdown in Chinese demand could be a threat.

But Hackett says he sees 8% to 15% growth in Chinese steel production over the next few years. China imported 400 million tons of iron ore last year.

But what if Chinese steel makers try to bypass giants like Rio and BHP to get a cheaper deal with smaller iron ore producers?

"No other producers in the world can provide the large volumes they need," Hackett said.

Rio Tinto's 2007 net profit fell 2% to $7.3 billion. Earnings were hurt by charges related to the Alcan purchase. Sales rose 31.9% to $33.5 billion. Rio Tinto doesn't release quarterly results.