Dan Fitzpatrick：XTO巨量觸底企穩 7/29

XTO Energy(代號:XTO)进入7月以来股价呈现自由落体，不过在1月间45.56美元的低点附近有获得支撑的迹象，上周五股价天量收平，暂时可以看作是止跌企稳的信号。分析师预计这一重要支撑位附近有可能吸引到抄底资金介入，股价有望反弹重回50美元上方。

不过值得注意的是，该股已经离200日移动平均线非常遥远了，从技术上来说随时可能触发报复性的超跌反弹，参考近来金融类个股的走势，预期中的反弹有可能同样极具爆发力。分析师建议抢反弹的投资者将止损位设定在1月间低点的下方。

Credit Suisse Comments 7/28

Stock Attractive, Recent Deals Designed to Extend Growth, Not to Hide Problems, Lowering Estimates and TP to $67 (from $78)

• Acquisitions Continue, Shares Attractive: XTO's Q2 report was slightly better than expected on price, while production and operating costs were generally in-line with our expectations. XTO's total cost structure rose 6% qtr/qtr given sharp increase in the DD&A rate (+8% qtr/qtr to $2.07 per Mcfe), reflecting the numerous acquisitions made year-to-date. Likewise, XTO announced 2 new deal packages totaling $2.1B, which puts the year-to-date deal total at $10.6B for 2.3 Tcfe of proved reserves ($4.60 per Mcfe) and 440 MMcfe/d of production ($24.0k per Mcfepd). The significant premium paid over XTO's trading multiples ($3.10 per Mcfe and $17.9k per Mcfepd) clearly captures the value assigned to reserve upside (6-8 Tcfe) across the acquired acreage (1.4MM net acres). XTO stated it could do another $1.0B of deals by year-end, but noted the recent string of deals does not mark a shift away from its organic growth model. A focus on development is likely to return in 2009 (read on). With the shares 35% off recent highs and trading at a 16% discount to proved (1P) NAV, we believe XTO currently presents an attractive investment opportunity.

• Reduce EPS and Net Asset Value: We are reducing our 2008/2009 EPS estimates by 6% and 11% to $4.48/$5.49 from $4.75/$6.19 to reflect the ~$1.25B equity offering, a higher DD&A rate and higher interest expense partially offset by stronger production. Our NAV falls to $84 (from $87) as we are not including any unbooked reserve potential tied to the recent $2.1B of transactions. We are lowering our target price to $67 (from $78), which is now based on a 20% NAV discount (vs. 10% prior) to reflect restrained market appreciation for unproved reserves.

Our NAV is based on $11.00 per MMBtu gas in 2008, $9.50 in 2009 and $9.00 longterm and moves about 11% for every $1.00 per MMBtu swing in NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas prices."