7/3
对于FTI Consulting(代號:FCN) 来说，好日子更加红火，坏日子也熬到了头。这家咨询公司主要提供法律、财务和公共服务，比如企业重组、宣布破产以及共同起诉。你也许认为这就是FTI最好的时期了，但是公司的CEO Jack Dunn表示：“我们主要是应对秘密危机和流动资产和处理，但是在我一生的职业生涯中，没有比目前更忙碌的了。”目前公司的顾问团队正忙于建议公司对其他银行间的债务和交易进行重组。公司的客户包括已经破产的firms Bombay Co，Sharper Image，流畅性出现困难的NexCen Brands(代號:NEXC)，以及亏损72亿美元的法国企业Societe Generale 。
再融资债务方面，FTI作为一家大型企业无疑将得到更多的再融资业务，同时将对高收益的债务业务进行更新，Jack Dunn表示“我们将越来越忙”。但是在收购合并以及资本市场的业务有所下降，受到全球信贷危机影响而出现的新客户咨询业务抵消了这部分的损失。
分析师表示信贷危机并未给公司带来大麻烦，原因是信贷危机造成美国市场中的破产和诉讼业务正在日益增加，这为公司增添的不少业务。分析师表示，与次级贷相关的业务将吸引更多的股东和投资者，UBS Securities分析师Andrew Fones表示：“好日子正在到来，FTI的破产业务将在下个季度迎来业绩的大好局面。”
同时，公司还将忙于业务拓展，并对亏损企业提供交易支持服务。公司的技术服务包括为律师事务所和企业处理大量资料，这已经成为公司的第五大业务板块，一季度营收上涨了71%至5650万美元。公司大多数的营收来自于软件许可。
公司计划斥资8800万美元收购西雅图的Attenex Corp公司来支持这项业务，这是一家出售数据处理软件以及电子数据现实化工具的公司，收购预计将在三季度完成。CJS Securities分析师Arnold Ursaner预计FTI的技术软件业务将价值25亿美元，“从估值角度考虑，软件技术将成为公司的核心业务。”
FTI最大的业务是企业融资和重组。一季度营收上涨28%至7930万美元。金融咨询板块营收上涨了41%至5600万美元，这包括信贷危机，诸如航空和私募基金等问题部门的战略合并。一季度总营收上涨了35%至3.07亿美元，每股收益上涨了64%至0.59美元，比共识高了0.12美元。
本季度增长趋缓的业务是法律服务和诉讼支持板块，营收上涨了11% 。公司预计08年总营收将达到130-13.75亿美元，每股收益达到2.5-2.63美元。Thomson Reuters分析师预期公司08年每股收益达到2.59美元，同比上涨30% 。09年利润将上涨20%，2010年将上涨16%；到2012年美国以外市场营收将上涨30-35% 。
Investor's Business Daily
Bad Times Become Good For Consultant Of Troubled Businesses
Wednesday July 2, 6:07 pm ET
Marilyn Alva For FTI Consulting, good times are fine. But bad times are better.
The advisory firm works in fields that are in high demand in a weak economy, such as restructuring, bankruptcies and class-action suits.
You might say these are the best of times for FTI (NYSE:FCN - News).
"We respond to crises in confidence and liquidity," said Chief Executive Jack Dunn. "In my time in business, I haven't seen tougher challenges than now."
FTI's experts are busy advising firms on how to restructure debt and deal with other banking woes. Work for midsize outfits in home mortgages, home building and retail is buzzing.
Clients include bankrupt firms Bombay Co. and Sharper Image, liquidity-challenged NexCen Brands (NasdaqGM:NEXC - News), and France's Societe Generale, which lost $7.2 billion on a futures trader's fraudulent trades.
Refinancing Debt
FTI will likely get a lot more business as bigger firms move to refinance when their high-yield debt comes up for renewal, Dunn says.
"We will continue to get busier and busier," he said.
While work in mergers and acquisitions and capital markets has fallen off from a year ago, new consulting business for clients affected by the global credit crisis has replaced it, the company says.
And analysts say the crisis hasn't yet given FTI its biggest jolt. The reason: Related bankruptcies and lawsuits in the U.S. have only just begun.
Subprime-related work, analysts say, will involve borrower and shareholder class actions, claims related to auction-rate securities and commercial contract disputes.
"The best is yet to come," said Andrew Fones, an analyst at UBS Securities. FTI's bankruptcy business, for example, "is probably going to see a steep increase in demand in coming quarters."
FTI continues to keep busy on discovery work and transaction-support services for distressed companies and those dealing with regulatory pressures.
It's especially active in electronic discovery work.
Tech services, which include the processing of massive amounts of data for law firms and corporations, are the fastest-growing arm of FTI's five business segments. Revenue in that group jumped 71% in the first quarter vs. the year-ago period, to $56.5 million.
Much of it is recurring revenue from software licensing.
FTI plans to bolster that business with the $88 million purchase of Seattle-based Attenex Corp., which sells data processing software and e-data visualization tools. The deal is expected to close in the third quarter.
Analysts say the firm's tech business could give FTI a further lift from a partial spinoff in a public offering or sale. Some expect a deal to occur near the end of the year.
Analyst Arnold Ursaner of CJS Securities estimates that FTI's tech business could be worth up to $2.5 billion. Others peg the value at less than $2 billion -- still a relatively high sum.
"From a valuation perspective, technology is their crown jewel," Fones said.
CEO Dunn said the tech unit is a "valuable asset" that is being looked at "to maximize shareholder value." But he says no decision has been made on how it would extract more value.
FTI's largest group is corporate financing and restructuring. First-quarter revenue rose 28% from last year to $79.3 million, continuing the momentum that began in the second half of last year.
The economic consulting segment's revenue rose 41% to $56 million. It involved work related to credit problems, strategic mergers in troubled sectors such as airlines and private equity deals gone awry.
Total revenue in the first quarter rose 35% to $307 million from the same time a year ago. Earnings grew 64% to 59 cents a share, 12 cents above Wall Street estimates.
"There isn't really a weak link in the company," said William Sutherland, an analyst at Boenning & Scattergood. "Most of the wind is at their back."
The slowest grower in the quarter was the forensic and litigation support unit, whose revenue rose 11%. But that's where the subprime impact will have a bigger impact in coming quarters, says Sutherland.
FTI forecasts total 2008 revenue of $1.3 billion to $1.375 billion, up from $1 billion last year, and earnings of $2.50 to $2.63 per share vs. last year's $2.00.
Analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters peg 2008 earnings at $2.59 a share, a 30% jump from last year.
Some of the growth comes from acquisitions. Nine relatively small ones have been made so far this year. Seven closed in the first quarter.
Investor Concerns
Some investors were worried that one of the larger ones, the real estate consulting firm Schonbraun McCann Group, was untimely given the sad state of the real estate market. But management says Schonbraun McCann can take advantage of restructuring and other advisory opportunities, and provide global cross-selling opportunities.
Analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters see earnings growth slowing over the next two years to 20% in 2009 and 16% in 2010. But that doesn't include adds from future acquisitions.
Global expansion, including acquisitions, continues to factor highly in FTI's game plan. Over the past few years, FTI has built a sizable global business through acquisitions in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Of the nine buys made so far this year, several were outside the U.S., including firms based in London, Brussels, China and Brazil.
The London office, which came by way of a 2006 acquisition, is the second largest after FTI's Baltimore headquarters.
Dunn has told analysts that the firm expects 30% to 35% of its revenue to come from outside the U.S. by 2012, the year it expects to hit the $2.5 billion mark.
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